February 16, 2012

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is predicting the Canadian housing market will remain fairly stable this year and next, with little change from 2011 in prices, new home construction and sales of existing homes. The national housing agency said Monday in its first-quarter 2012 report that the foreseen stability stems from an economy that appears set to expand at only a moderate pace over the next two years. The Bank of Canada’s key overnight rate — which affects mortgages tied to prime rates — will likely remain low until mid-2013, which should also act to keep activity on an even keel.

Low mortgage rates and high demand have driven housing prices sharply higher in large urban centers such as Toronto and Vancouver, leading many experts to warn that a housing bubble could burst when rates finally do rise. Despite those warnings and alarms from top government officials that Canadians are taking on too much debt overall, the housing market has seen little change over the past few years, with price growth slowing but not retreating in most areas.

The CMHC says it expects the average house price in Canada to hit $368,900 for 2012, with a projected range between $330,000 and $410,000, according to data from the Canadian Real Estate Association’s MLS service. For 2013, that number rises to $379,000, with a range between $335,000 and $430,000.

Housing starts are expected to be around 190,000 units this year and 193,800 units in 2013, while existing home sales are expected at about 457,300 units in 2012 and moving a little higher to 468,200 units in 2013. The CMHC predicted that housing starts will be in the range of 164,000 to 212,700 units in 2012, and between 168,900 to 219,300 units in 2013. Existing home sales are expected in a range from 406,000 to 504,500 units in 2012, rising to 417,600 to 517,400 units in 2013.

The agency noted that the fate of an economic recovery in the United States, Canada’s largest single trading partner, could have an immediate affect on Canada’s housing industry — “Some upsides include the potential that the U.S. could recover more quickly than anticipated, which would be positive for U.S. employment and economic growth,” CMHC said. “In turn, this could boost employment growth in Canada and thus lead to a stronger than expected housing market.” Conversely, if the U.S. recovery hits a snag and emerging economies see their growth slow while Europe suffers a slowdown, that could lead to slower employment growth in Canada and place a chilling effect on the demand for housing.

For more information on this or anything else related to mortgages, please contact me!!

Maziar Moini

Broker of Record

Home Leader Realty Inc. Brokerage

300 Richmond St. West, #200, Toronto, ON, M5V 1X2

By: Krista Franks

Capital Economics expects the housing crisis to end this year, according to a report released Tuesday. One of the reasons: loosening credit.

The analytics firm notes the average credit score required to attain a mortgage loan is 700. While this is higher than scores required prior to the crisis, it is constant with requirements one year ago.

Additionally, a Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey found credit requirements in the fourth quarter were consistent with the past three quarters.

However, other market indicators point not just to a stabilization of mortgage lending standards, but also a loosening of credit availability.

Banks are now lending amounts up to 3.5 times borrower earnings. This is up from a low during the crisis of 3.2 times borrower earnings.

Banks are also loosening loan-to-value ratios (LTV), which Capital Economics denotes “the clearest sign yet of an improvement in mortgage credit conditions.”

In contrast to a low of 74 percent reached in mid-2010, banks are now lending at 82 percent LTV.

While credit conditions may have loosened slightly, some potential homebuyers are still struggling with credit requirements. In fact, Capital Economics points out that in November 8 percent of contract cancellations were the result of a potential buyer not qualifying for a loan.

Additionally, Capital Economics says “any improvement in credit conditions won’t be significant enough to generation actual house price gains,” and potential ramifications from the euro-zone pose a threat to future credit availability.

National Post By Suzanne Wintrob

If you’re tired of heading back to the ’burbs after taking in a play or a meal, developers are hoping you’ll make the Entertainment District your next permanent address.

“That particular neighbourhood is undergoing a bit of a shift,” says Niall Haggart, executive vice-president of The Daniels Corp., which is behind Festival Tower and the new Cinema Tower under construction next door. “When we first started in that neighbourhood, it might have been a target audience that was a little more youthful and hip. We sold to an audience that had a connection to the film festival and we tapped into that. Now we’re finding there’s a whole host of people in the buy-down market. Their kids are gone, they want to get rid of their larger home, they really love the condominium lifestyle and they want to be in this area because of what it has to offer, the hustle and bustle of the city. It’s a very different vibe than, say, Yorkville, which still has a certain characteristic to it.”

According to Urbanation, the fourth quarter of 2011 saw 13 projects with 5,377 units under construction in the Entertainment District, 10 projects (3,529 units) under construction and marketing, and another 18 applications (7,011 units) proposed. The numbers of projects is slightly up compared to the end of 2010 though the 2011 projects boast substantially more units. Under-construction projects grew by 34% (1,350 units) annually while applications grew by 21% and 1,209 units year-over-year.

Besides the influx of full-time residents, the residential construction will also add a new lineup of stores, restaurants and services that will add tremendous value to the ’hood.

“When all of the development is completed — though I don’t think it will ever be fully completed because it’s an ongoing thing — the good thing is our streets will be aligned with a lot of great at-grade retail opportunity, which for us is huge about that sort of pedestrian experience, that experience on the street,” says Janice Solomon, executive director of the Entertainment District BIA. “What do the local businesses and residents and visitors to the area feel when they come into this area? We’d really like to see a lot of vibrancy, a lot of retail, a lot of activity on the street. The vision for the John Street Cultural Corridor is the best of all of it.”

A quick walk through the neighbourhood reveals there are plenty of places to put down your hat. Turn the page for a sampling of what’s available.

Bisha Hotel and Residences

A 41-storey boutique hotel and condominium with 337 condo suites and 100 hotel rooms Location  56 Blue Jays Way, south of King Street West Builder  Lifetime Developments and INK Entertainment Suite Availability  90% sold. From $302,900 for 389 sq. ft. to $754,900 for 944 sq. ft.  Hot tickets  Two bars, two restaurants, a 24-hour café, 7,000-sq.-ft. rooftop patio and infinity pool, fitness centre, high-end salon. Status  Construction starting early spring Occupancy  Spring 2014

The Bond

A 41-storey translucent glass and steel tower with 369 suites Builder  Lifetime Developments Location Adelaide and John streets Suite Availability  75% sold. From 327 to 1, 170 sq. ft. and $261,900 to $929,900 for 1170 sq. ft. with 572 sq. ft. terrace Hot tickets Seventh-floor urban retreat with residents’ lounge, billiards room, golf simulation and video games room, and his-and-hers private saunas. Eighth-floor fitness retreat with sun lounge and juice bar Status  Pre-construction Occupancy  Fall 2015

Charlie Condos

A 36-storey, 278-unit contemporary tower with expansive windows grounded by classic heritage brick at street level to fit in with its historic surroundings Builder  Great Gulf Homes Location  King and Charlotte streets Suite Availability  97% sold. From 749 to 1,775 sq. ft. and $470,000 to more than $1-million. Hot Tickets  “The Zone” has fitness rooms, a yoga studio and co-ed steam room Status  Under construction Occupancy  Fall 2012

Cinema Tower

A 43-storey, 444-suite tower next to the TIFF Bell Lightbox Builder  The Daniels  Location Adelaide and Widmer streets Suite Availability  75% sold. From 420 to 1,500 sq. ft. and priced from the mid-$300,000s Hot tickets  Some “combo suites” can expand to three-bedroom-plus-study layouts to accommodate larger families  Status  Under construction Occupancy  Fall 2013

Fabrik Condos

16 Floors, 169 suites  Builder  Menkes Developments Location  Richmond Street and Spadina Avenue Suite Availability  424 to 1,388 sq. ft. starting from the mid-$200,000s Hot tickets  Green roof system with storm water management to reduce the urban heat island effect, on-site car sharing program Status  Registration phase Occupancy  July 2015

King Charlotte

32 storeys, 232 units Builder  Lamb Development and Niche Development Location  Charlotte Street Suite Availability  70% sold. From 642 to 962 sq. ft. and $395,000 to $579,900 Hot tickets  Architecture is based on a series of different-sized boxes stacked one on top of the other in intriguing ways Status  Starting construction in May 2012 Occupancy  January 2014

Living Shangri-La Toronto

A 66-storey glass tower housing a 202-room hotel, 287 one- and two- bedroom residences and 107 private estates. Builder  Westbank Corp. & Peterson Group Location  University Avenue and Adelaide Street Suite Availability  80% sold. Residences from 1,537 to 1,822 sq. ft. and $1.7- to $2.4-million; Private Estates from 836 to 3,306 sq. ft. and $993,500 to $5.6-million; a $7.5-million Signature suite at 4,431 sq. ft.; and Penthouse suites from 3,300 to 3,500 sq. ft. for $9.3-million. Hot tickets  Private estate on floors 50 to 66 have two-car private garages, automated blinds and TV embedded in the master ensuite’s mirror Status  Under construction Occupancy  2012

The Mercer

A 35-storey, 412-unit tower of layered brick, stone and glass Builder Graywood Developments and Beaverhall Homes Location  John and King streets Suite Availability 75% sold. From 363 to 1,133 sq. ft. and low $300,000s to more than $1-million  Hot tickets 10,000-sq.-ft rooftop terrace, Scandinavian-inspired sauna and spa area Status Open for sales Occupancy  2014

Peter Street Condominiums

Dramatic 40-storey Peter Clewes-designed glass building with 429 suites Builder  CentreCourt Developments Location  Peter and Adelaide streets Suite Availability 95% sold. From 303 to 772 sq. ft. for mid $200,000s to $500,000s Hot tickets 24/7 concierge, Totum LifeSciences gym, eco features Status Under construction Occupancy  December 2014

Picasso on Richmond

A 35-storey, 373-suite building designed as a vertical landscape of cubist forms Builder  Monarch Location  Richmond and John streets  Suite Availability  75% sold. From 456 to 935 sq. ft. and $312,990 to more than $800,000 Hot Tickets  Gardens on every 10th floor, with vibrant red accents on interior and exterior Status  Actively selling Occupancy  December 2016

The Pinnacle on Adelaide

A 43-storey building with 564 units. Builder  Pinnacle International Location  John and Adelaide streets Suite Availability  Over 75% sold. 594 to 1047 sq. ft. and $339,900 to $659,900 Hot ticket Located at the forefront of the John Street corridor project  Status  Under construction Occupancy  Fall 2013

Ritz-Carlton Hotel and Residences

A 52-storey hotel with 159 residences Builder Graywood Development Location Wellington Street Suite Availability 90% sold. Newly available: a 6,000-sq.-ft. sub-penthouse for $9.6-million and a 1,575-sq.-ft. one-bedroom-plus-library on the 32nd floor for $1.6-million. Hot tickets AAA Four Diamond award-winning chef Tom Brodi runs Toca bar and restaurant Status Now occupying Occupancy Spring 2012

Studio 2

A 41-storey, 422-unit stacked rhombus glass tower Builder Aspen Ridge Homes Location Duncan and Richmond streets Suite Availability 68% sold. From 495 to 1,275 sq. ft. and low $300,000s to $954,990 Hot tickets Aqua lounge, winter lounge, media room, yoga space Status Actively selling Occupancy Late 2014

Tableau Condominium

A 36-storey, 415-unit building Builder Urban Capital, Malibu Investment and Alit Location Richmond and Peter streets Suite Availability 95% sold. From 590 to 1,036 sq. ft. and $375,900 to $679,900 Hot tickets The building’s table structure creates a large, four-storey colonnaded public plaza on Richmond Street Status Under construction Occupancy Summer 2014

Theatre Park

A 47-storey, 234-suite glass tower situated across from Roy Thomson Hall Builder Lamb Development Corp. and Niche Development Location On King Street West’s Theatre Row Suite Availability 80% sold. From 530 to 2,480 sq. ft. and $418,900 to $2.3-million Hot tickets Exposed concrete ceilings, 10-ft. ceilings in penthouses Status Under construction Occupancy July 2013

300 Front West

A 49-storey, 683-unit building Builder Tridel Location Front and John streets Suite Availability 95% sold. From 540 to 1,927 sq. ft. and $350,000 to $1.59-million Hot tickets Rooftop infinity pool, suites designed using environmentally preferable materials Status Under construction Occupancy Summer 2012

210 Simcoe

A 25-storey New York-inspired building with 294 units Builder Sorbara Development Group Location 210 Simcoe St. at Queen and University Suite Availability 84% sold. Suites range from 481 sq. ft. to 754 sq. ft. (plus terraces) for $353,900 to $460,900. Hot tickets High-design lobby, art gallery, his/hers steam room, meeting/event rooms Status Construction starts April 2012 Occupancy  July, 2015

Toronto Star

A record 28,190 condos were sold across the GTA last year, up 24 per cent from the previous high set in 2007, says condo research firm Urbanation.

While sales remained sky-high in the final quarter of 2011, at a record 7,226 units, the inventory of unsold suites has been creeping up. As of the end of last year, it stood at just under 15,000 units — about 18 per cent of existing condos — up from 12,272 in the first quarter of 2011, Urbanation notes in its second annual report on the state of the GTA condo industry.

That’s still below the five-year 21 per cent average for unsold suites.

“The more successful the condominium market is in Toronto, the more reports surface warning of oversupply or a correction in prices,” said Ben Myers, executive vice-president of the condo tracking company.

Myers points to speculative buying, over-leveraging and “herd behaviour” as three risk factors that are hard to assess but could lead to a correction in Toronto condo prices.

But he notes that so far there seems to have been very little “dumping” — or flipping — of units for a quick profit before move-in day, which suggests most purchasers are likely “long-term, hold-and-rent investors” who are boosting the much-needed supply of rental accommodation in the GTA.

Urbanation predicts the market will remain strong this year, although it will revert to more normal sales levels of 20,000 or so units.

Toronto Star

The Canadian Real Estate Association has launched a new system for tracking home and condo sales prices aimed at giving buyers and sellers a more precise picture of what’s happening right in their neighbourhoods.

The new system will track Canadian and regional home sales and price escalations based on “benchmark prices.” Those benchmarks are based on quantitative factors (the number of rooms, bathrooms, age of home) and qualitative factors (proximity to schools, parks) and are intended to shine a light on highly localized factors that may be skewing prices up or down but not necessarily reflect market conditions.

CREA has also established a new MLS Home Price Index — similar to the Consumer Price Index which measures price inflation — that tracks prices relative to January, 2005 based on house type, be it single-family homes with one or two storeys, townhouses, row homes or condo apartments.

As of January, the benchmark price of a single-family home in Toronto hit $606,600 — $100,000 more than the $499,800 benchmark price for a similar home in the rest of Canada. That Toronto home cost 50.3 per cent more than it would have in January, 2005.

Over time, far more localized data will become available for MLS districts that should paint a clearer picture of neighbourhood trends.

“One of the key goals is to take a little bit of volatility out of housing statistics,” says Jason Mercer, senior analyst for the Toronto Real Estate Board. “It’s going to provide a good tool for consumers to understand where their home fits into the market.”

CREA will continue to release its traditional Canada-wide and regional breakdowns of average and median home prices, which it claims are often “misinterpreted” and can swing significantly, as national prices did last year when there was a rush of foreign investors snapping up homes in high-end Vancouver neighbourhoods.

Right now, just five major real estate boards across Canada are part of the new system — the GTA, Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Calgary, and Greater Montreal.

Eight more boards will start using the new measures this year, and another eight boards next year.