Could Canada’s headline inflation rate reach the neutral target of 2% by this summer, a full year sooner than the Bank of Canada’s own forecasts?
National Bank of Canada thinks so.

In a new report, economist Taylor Schleich argues that there’s actually a “clear path” to 2% inflation by the middle of this year.

“To get 2% inflation, one doesn’t need to assume inflation decelerates at all from the recent run-rate,” he writes. “Indeed, simply plugging in the average monthly increase from the past six months (+0.2%) brings you right to target in Q3.”

He notes that that’s even with the “problematic” shelter inflation, which continues to run more than 6% above year-ago levels and is the leading contributor to headline inflation right now.

This is also based on National Bank’s expectation that GDP growth will turn negative in both the second and third quarters of 2024.

In January, Statistics Canada reported that headline CPI inflation fell more than expected to an annualized 2.9% from 3.4% in December.

Should the now-negative output gap—which is the difference between what an economy actually produces and what it would produce in an ideal world—further slow inflation or if we return to pre-pandemic dynamics, which is a monthly average of +0.15% from 2010 to 2019, Schleich says inflation could return to target even sooner.

This scenario is drastically different from the Bank of Canada’s current forecast released in its January Monetary Policy Report. The Bank maintains that headline inflation won’t return to its desired 2% target until the middle of 2025, and has been adamant that it wants to see “assurance” that inflation is trending back towards its target before considering interest rate cuts.

“The moral of this story is, despite the BoC’s repeated warnings that inflation victory won’t come until next year, there’s a path to 2% that’s shorter and clearer than some may appreciate,” Schleich adds.

A common problem today for would-be buyers of pre-construction homes or condominiums is when the property values have dropped, interest rates have jumped to make financing impossible, and reselling at a loss in a depressed market is not realistic.

William’s predicament is not uncommon. Back in September, 2021, he signed an agreement to buy a Toronto condo for $900,000, and gave the developer two deposit cheques totalling $90,000. Another $45,000 was due on occupancy last month.

Little did he imagine that in preparation for final closing this summer, his bank would appraise the completed unit at just under $700,000, leaving him to come up with more than $200,000 he doesn’t have in order to close this summer.

Nor did he anticipate that when he took possession, the occupancy fees would escalate to a staggering $5,800 a month, largely due to the higher interest rates set by the Bank of Canada.

William’s $90,000 deposit was all the money he had in the world. The builder refused to allow him out of the deal or return any part of the deposit, but did allow a short extension of the occupancy closing to see if he could raise the $45,000 due at that time.

Based on conversations I have had with my clients and colleagues in recent weeks, William’s position with his “underwater” deal is not unusual.

People like William are turning to their real estate lawyers for help. The first thing we have to advise them are the consequences of breaching the contract and failing to close. I tell them about cases such as that of Treasure Hill Homes v. Yang.

In 2016, Fuxiang Yang and Ziye Zhao agreed to buy a house from the builder for $2,214,813.

Six weeks before closing the buyers advised the builder that they were unable to close the transaction. The builder ultimately resold the house for $1,500,000 and sued for its losses of $616,601 and forfeiture of the deposit.

At a court hearing in October, 2021, the builder was awarded its entire damages against the purchasers.

The law is that buyers who breach a purchase contract are liable for all damages suffered by the builder on a resale, minus the original deposit which is forfeited.

Buyers faced with similar problems might consider liquidating other assets, or arranging private financing until they can close and resell. Some builders have been able to arrange institutional or vendor-take-back financing for buyers who are at risk of defaulting.

Real estate lawyers may be able to help their clients calculate their potential losses if they raise money, close and resell, or if they breach the contract and get sued by the builder for its losses.

Sadly, where a rescue is not in the cards, some buyers may have to consider filing for bankruptcy so they can make a fresh start on life.

It’s a scary time for many buyers. They can only hope that by mid-year, the market will improve and interest rates will ease.