Posts

Here’s a bit of a surprise: The busiest shopping centre in North America isn’t in New York or L.A., as one might expect. It’s in Toronto — the iconic Eaton Centre.

That’s just one tidbit of information from the Retail Council of Canada’s recent report, which shows Canadian malls are beating their U.S. counterparts on many of the measures that count.

Malls in Vancouver, Edmonton and Montreal also made the list of the busiest malls in the U.S. and Canada.

But the Eaton Centre takes the cake, with 48.9 million visitors in 2015. That’s more visits than were made to the Las Vegas strip or to Disney World and Disneyland combined that year, the report says.

More important to mall owners and retailers is how much money the mall makes per square foot. On this measure, Canadian malls beat U.S. malls by a landslide.

Canadian malls made $744 per square foot in 2015, or $562 in U.S. dollar terms. That compares to US$466 for American malls.

The chart below compares mall sales per square foot in U.S. dollars. The Canadian numbers show a decline because of the loonie’s fall in recent years. But in Canadian dollars, sales are rising.

The report could only speculate on why Canadian malls are doing better.

One reason is that there is less shopping centre space in Canada. There are 23.6 square feet of mall space per person in the U.S., compared to 16.5 square feet per person in Canada.

“The question becomes, why are Canada’s centres more productive? Is it because we have less space and are more efficient, or because we pay more for products than in the United States?” the Retail Council report asks.

Malls for the rich still making a killing

Although Canadian malls make considerably more on average than U.S. ones, the U.S.’s malls for the wealthy and tourist-oriented shopping centres still beat Canadian malls by a long shot.

The U.S.’s highest-earning mall is the Bal Harbour Shops complex in the Miami area, with earnings of US$3,185 per square foot in 2015.

Canada’s highest earning mall, the Yorkdale Centre in Toronto, earned C$1,650.85 the same year.

TransUnion has launched a new solution to enable lenders to offer a fully digital lending experience by SMS text message.

As part of its Mobile Offers Now product, users can walk through the borrowing process entirely with text messages thanks to verified prefill capabilities.

Starting with a text to a shortcode, customers are shown relevant, prequalified credit offers, and can then apply – all using text messaging.

“A seamless digital experience has become the norm for consumers in many aspects of their life and they are expecting the same experience when choosing and managing their financial relationships,” said Dane Mauldin, chief product officer at TransUnion. “To stay competitive, financial institutions must meet the needs and wants of consumers. Adopting new channels and improving digital capabilities are necessary for attracting and retaining customers who demand access and convenience.”

Mobile Offers Now is powered by a combination of TransUnion DecisionEdge®, and a partnership with Texas-based digital lending firm iLendx.

“These enhanced capabilities of Mobile Offers Now offer a benefit to both lenders and consumers. Consumers can streamline their search for credit offers through an easy SMS process and can then quickly complete the application digitally—either online or via text. Meanwhile, this solution enables lenders to process applications faster, realize revenue more quickly, and reduce origination costs. It’s a win-win situation,” added Mauldin.

The City of Toronto wants to buy the 16-hectare (40-acre) Hearn site from Studios of America, which bought it last fall from provincially owned Ontario Power Generation in a controversial $16-million deal.

City council voted 20-2 on Thursday to direct city staff to start discussions with Studios of America, the longtime tenant that bought the hulking former generating plant and sprawling grounds on Lake Ontario in a surprise move.
Councillor Paula Fletcher, whose Ward 14 Toronto-Danforth includes the Port Lands site, said after the vote she hopes Studios of America, which rents out the site for film and video productions and special events, will make a deal.

“If they agree to sell it for what they paid, or what they paid and costs, that would be fantastic,” Fletcher said.

“It is a landmark building on the waterfront, and it really should have been turned over by the provincial government to (tri-government agency) Waterfront Toronto, but, unfortunately, that didn’t happen, so we’ll have to see if the private owners are willing to put these lands into public good.”

She noted that OPG said it had the Unwin Ave. site, east of Cherry Beach, professionally appraised. That means, she said, there should be no argument over the value of the site, which includes a big stretch of waterfront, but also soil polluted from years of coal-fired generation.
OPG included as conditions of sale that Studios of America not be able to resell the site within three years and not put homes or other “sensitive uses” there within 15 years.

Neither Studios of America president Paul Vaughan, nor Mario Cortellucci, a partner in the company and prominent real estate developer, could be reached for comment Thursday after the vote.

The sale was heavily criticized at city hall, where Fletcher and Mayor John Tory said Toronto should have been consulted before the sale of an iconic building and significant patch of the Port Lands, and at Queen’s Park, where the opposition NDP accused the Progressive Conservative government of giving a sweetheart deal to a developer who is a past campaign donor to Premier Doug Ford.

Ford’s government said the decision was OPG’s. An OPG official told councillors, during a 2017 meeting, that his agency would not sell the Hearn site without the provincial government’s “blessing.”
Asked if Toronto will consider trying to expropriate the site if Studios of America doesn’t want to sell, Fletcher said that’s a discussion for April when city staff report back on the result of talks about the sale and on another council direction to consider the site’s heritage value.

Tory believes that Hearn “is an iconic landmark building, and is of significant importance to the city’s waterfront,” his spokesman Don Peat said. “Mayor Tory strongly believes it is in the city’s best interests that the site should be in public hands, so that it can be protected and preserved.”

Also Thursday:

Council voted 15-9 to continue Toronto’s role in a court fight against the Ford government’s unprecedented move to unilaterally cut city council from a planned 47 seats to 25 mid election.
The vote came after council discussed a provincial offer in a closed-door session. Two sources, not authorized to speak publicly, said the offer was simply for Toronto to walk away from its legal challenge and not risk being saddled with the province’s court costs if Toronto loses.

Council voted 21-1 to ask Airbnb to follow the city’s new regulations for short-term rentals, even though the regulations are on hold while Airbnb hosts appeal them to the province’s Local Planning Appeal Tribunal.
The rules would ban landlords from using self-contained basement apartments for short-term rentals, and any property not their primary residence. Councillor Joe Cressy said he wants short-term rental services to follow the rules, so Toronto renters don’t lose long-term homes to the short-term market.

Council voted 21-3 to allow councillors to request a second “Environment Day” in their ward, with activities including distribution of free compost to residents and collection of old electronics and hazardous waste including paint, if they so choose.
Queen’s Park shrinking council meant only 25 Environment Days across Toronto under the old rule of one per ward per year. That would save the city money — each event costs $15,000 — but some councillors said it wasn’t fair to compost-enthusiastic residents in their new supersized wards.

Councillor Stephen Holyday (Ward 3 Etobicoke Centre) drew gasps from his colleague when he proposed eliminating Environment Days altogether, arguing they are all about “councillor self-promotion” and don’t justify costs.

Immigrants are not as enticed by single-detached residences as their Canadian-born counterparts, fresh numbers from Statistics Canada indicated.

From 2016 to 2017, immigrants accounted for 46% of Toronto’s population total, and 41% that of Vancouver.

The cohort accounted for 43% of residential ownership in Toronto, and 37% in Vancouver. However, the proportion of single-detached homes that immigrants possessed showed a marked difference in the two red-hot markets.

Toronto has approximately half of its immigrant-owned properties as detached properties, while the figure was 60% for owners born in Canada, Yahoo! Finance Canada reported.

Meanwhile, Vancouver’s single-detached homes represented 39% of the city’s immigrant-owned properties, compared with 48% for domestic owners.

“These data show that there is ongoing opportunity to reduce taxes on earnings for typical residents, and especially younger folks and renters who are particularly harmed by the current housing market, by taxing high home values more when owned by foreigners, immigrants and locally-born residents.” UBC professor Paul Kershaw said in an interview.

“Just focusing on wealth brought by immigrants will miss an important, and large, piece of the housing unaffordability puzzle.”

An early January analysis by the Altus Group stated that intensified immigration will boost Toronto’s population growth, and in turn feed into greater residential sales activity.

“Markets in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, including the GTA, have the most upside potential for an increase in sales activity in 2019 given the depth of the decline in 2018 and building off of the sales recovery noted in the back half of 2018,” Altus wrote in its market outlook for this year.

Vancouver might not fare as well, however, given that higher borrowing costs and growing construction costs are expected to discourage would-be buyers, Canadian-born or otherwise.

“A key challenge that has become more apparent as of late in Vancouver has been the price sensitivity of consumers, with higher priced projects, or those priced above the competition, experiencing below average sales rates.”

Ottawa should lengthen mortgage amortization periods to 30 years and reconsider the strict stress tests introduced last year, the home building industry says.

The recommendations by the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) comes as it released its annual report Friday showing that new-construction home sales hit a near 20-year low last year in the Toronto region.

It is the second year single-family house sales, including detached, semi-detached and townhouses, have dropped precipitously. The 3,831 sales in 2018 were half the 7,591 of 2017 and 74 per cent below the industry’s 10-year average.

In 2017, sales plunged further — 58 per cent — but that was after the region’s real estate market plunged following the frenzy of 2016 and the first four months of 2017.

The 25,161 new homes — condos and houses — sold last year was the lowest number since Altus Group began tracking sales for the industry in 2000. The last time sales dipped below last year’s levels was 1996, said BILD.

The benchmark price for a new construction house was down 6.7 per cent year over year in December, to $1.14 million from $1.23 million, said the report.

Despite a growing regional population, demand for homes has been weakened by the “artificial influences on the market,” said BILD CEO David Wilkes.

He predicted the industry faces another “tough year” if the stress test isn’t tweaked or eliminated to relieve home buyers of the need to qualify for loans at a rate 2 per cent higher than their lender offers or the Bank of Canada’s five-year benchmark rate.

“We believe (the stress test) has overshot the goals that the federal government had established for it and it is really blocking out new young families from qualifying to purchase their first home,” said Wilkes.

“In many cases they can afford to carry the home but they can’t afford the artificial requirement to finance it that the stress test puts on it,” he said.

“They can’t come up with the downpayment or they can’t qualify for interest rates that we may never see,” he said.

Wilkes also suggested the government could consider lengthening amortization periods to 30 years for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation-backed loans.

In 2008, Ottawa had extended those amortization periods to 40 years. That policy was gradually rolled back so that by 2012 it allowed only 25-year terms on those insured mortgages.

In 2018, condo sales also fell 38 per cent from 2017 levels, according to the statistics compiled by Altus Group. The price of apartments and stacked townhomes continued to rise, however — increasing 11.2 per cent to a benchmark of $796,815 at the end of 2018 compared to $716,772 the previous year.

The 21,330 sales of condos and stacked townhouses was only 4 per cent lower than the 10-year average.

Wilkes praised Premier Doug Ford’s government for addressing housing supply. But he acknowledged there will be a lag in? supply even after measures to boost new construction, such as changes to the land use policies in the provincial growth plan.

“It takes 10 to 11 years to bring on new developments, whether that’s single-family homes or condos,” he said. “Part of how long long it will take to get that new supply on will be dependent on the changes that are made in order to remove some of the inefficiences, red tape and duplication that are currently in the system.”

Mortgage Professionals Canada’s chief economist Will Dunning said last week that the stress test, which some have suggested reduces buying power by 20 per cent, is “too fierce.”

The province is proposing lowering the population density targets prescribed in the 2017 update to its growth plan to encourage more housing in places such as Durham, Niagara and Halton regions, Barrie, Brantford, Guelph, Orillia, Simcoe, Peterborough and Kawartha. Some areas that were previously targeting development for 80 people or jobs per hectare would need to accomodate half that number under the proposal.

Some environmentalists and urbanists say it is a recipe for more sprawl because builders will put more single-family homes on land that requires residents to commute long distances.

New home buyers finally reached their limit in Toronto last year.

After years of frenzied price increases, sales of new homes in Canada’s biggest city sunk to the lowest in almost two decades in 2018 and the supply of unsold condos piled up, according to a pair of new reports released Friday.
“Greater caution” should be taken when investing in new condo units, particularly over the short-term, as trends point toward slower appreciation, Shaun Hildebrand, president of condo research firm Urbanation, said in the report. The “market has started to normalize after unprecedented activity in recent years.”

Toronto’s housing market is dramatically cooling after higher interest rates and new mortgage regulations bite. The city joins other global metropolises such as London and Sydney seeing a slowdown as international investors retreat and domestic buyers balk at higher prices.
Sales of new homes fell to 25,161 from 2017, according to the Building Industry and Land Development Association, which used data from Altus Group Ltd. That’s the lowest annual number since Toronto-based Altus started tracking the figures in 2000.

Single-family homes showed the biggest decline, plunging 50 per cent to 3,831 from 2017 and 74 per cent below the 10-year average. Condos sales fell 38 per cent to 21,330, but only 4 per cent below the 10-year average.

While the benchmark price of a new single-family home slumped 6.7 per cent to $1,143,505 in December on the year, condo prices surged 11 per cent to $796,815, according to BILD’s report.

But figures from Urbanation show further weakness building in condos as well. A record 21,991 units are expected to be completed this year, up 29 per cent from 2017. While 98 per cent of those units are pre-sold, more than half were bought by investors who will either rent their units or sell them, the firm said.

The number of unsold units in development jumped 47 per cent in the fourth quarter from the year before to more than a two-year high and price gains for units under development grew only 0.4 per cent between the third and fourth quarters, the smallest quarterly increase in almost three years.

“The slowdown in activity last year can partly be attributed to less demand from investors, who typically represent the largest component of new condominium purchasers,” in the Toronto region, according to Urbanation’s report.

“The market is out of balance,” said David Wilkes, president and chief executive officer of BILD, an industry group for about 1,500 companies in the Toronto region. “We join other industry groups in calling on the federal government to revisit the stress test and allow a longer amortization period for first-time buyers. And we look forward to working with our municipal partners on removing barriers to development such as excessive red tape and outdated bylaws.”

TORONTO — Ontario is considering allowing realtors to tell prospective home buyers the prices of other offers in bidding wars.

The government launched a consultation Thursday looking at the Real Estate and Business Brokers Act, and that’s one rule they’re looking at changing.

Currently, if there are multiple bids on a home, the seller’s broker can only disclose the number of competing offers, but not the details of them.

Through this method in a hot housing market, buyers often can blindly offer more than what they initially planned on spending in hopes of beating their competitor.

The government’s consultation document says disclosing the details of competing offers could give prospective buyers better information to inform their decisions.

Sellers would also know that potential buyers had not been deterred by the prospect of a blind bidding war.

The Ontario Real Estate Association has been pushing for a change to that rule and a broader review of the act, and they say they are thrilled consultations are underway.

City council has voted in favour of a plan to make 11 surplus parcels of land available for the development of affordable housing despite criticism from some councillors who say the initiative doesn’t go far enough.

In a 21-4 vote on Wednesday afternoon, council approved the framework for Mayor John Tory’s “Housing Now” program, in which some surplus city land will be made available to developers for the creation of approximately 10,000 new residential units.

The plan calls for two-thirds of the units to be set aside for purpose-built rental with about half of those (3,700) being used for affordable housing with rents ranging from 40 to 80 per cent of market value.

At a news conference earlier on Wednesday, Tory called the plan “one of the biggest initiatives of its kind that has been undertaken by the city in a long, long time.”

Some councillors, however, disagreed and made amendments aimed at ensuring a higher proportion of units would actually be used for affordable housing.

During Wednesday’s meeting, Coun. Mike Layton introduced a motion that would have required 50 per cent of all unitsto be classified as affordable and one in five to beclassified as “deeply affordable,” with rents capped at 40 per cent of the average market rate.

Coun. Gord Perks also tabled a motion asking staff to ensure that at least one bid for each site come from a public sector organization, such as the Toronto Community Housing Corporation.

Ultimately, both amendments were defeated and council gave the green light to the “Housing Now” plan as currently structured.

As part of that plan, the city will retain ownership of the surplus lands but provide developers with a 99-year lease. The city would also waive an estimated $176 million in development charges and fees over the coming years and another $104 million in property taxes over the length of the leases.

“I think that we need to create a plan that is sustainable and is scalable and that is what we are trying to do here,” Coun. Ana Baialao, who is city council’s housing advocate, told CP24 after the vote. “We know that if the provincial and federal government come to the table we will definitely get more affordable housing on these sites with deeper affordability, but with the plan we have, we also know that it can be built with non-profits and the private sector.”

Tory says construction could start at some sites by next year

The surplus lands are mostly located near major public transit lines, with many of them currently home to surface parking lots.

During his news conference earlier in the day, Tory said that if council sticks to an expedited timeline theapproval of individual developments, there could be “shovels in the ground” at some of the sites as early as next year.

“I think today is a very big day. Housing now is a big initiative. In fact, it is three times the number of units from when the St. Lawrence community was created and books have been written about how important the St. Lawrence community was,” he said, referring to the mixed income community developed under former mayor David Crombie in the 1970s.

Layton says approach doesn’t fully take advantage of city resources

Tory has called his plan an “important first step” in addressing the housing crisis but Layton said that it simply doesn’t go far enough.

At a news conference alongside Coun. Kristyn Wong-Tam on Wednesday morning, he said that while “he would like to think that the mayor has the best intentions” it is clear that the approach he has pushed for “doesn’t fully take advantage of the city’s resources.”

For her part, Wong-Tam said that it would be preferable for the surplus lands to be developed by an arms-length city agency to ensure that more units are kept affordable, as is being done in Vancouver by the Vancouver Affordable Housing Agency (VAHA).

“In Vancouver they are going through a similar housing crisis, they have unlocked city-owned land just like we are trying to do but the major difference is that they are providing 100 per cent affordable and 100 per cent affordable on those lands,” Wong-Tam said. “The question before us is why is it that the City of Toronto is taking such a timid and tepid approach to our own city land in the face of a housing and a homelessness crisis?”

Looking for a pad within walking distance of Toronto’s subway system? Good call. You’ll get around the city a lot cheaper and faster than you would by taking a car—you just may have to pay a bit more for your home upfront.

Real estate brokerage and data provider Zoocasa just broke down how much it would cost to buy a place within 800 m of all 75 different subway and LRT stops in Toronto.

Using data sourced from the Toronto Real Estate Board between January 1, 2018 and December 31, 2018, the company mapped out the average sold prices of both houses (including detached, semi-detached and attached houses) and condos (including condo apartments and condo townhouses) by subway station.

The numbers vary quite a bit, depending on where you want to live, but each price is based exclusively on properties that are within a 10-minute walk of their respective stations.
Detached homes were found to be cheapest along the Scarborough LRT route, with average prices in the $700,000’s for all five stops on the line.

Unsurprisingly, some of the most expensive houses and condos can be found along Line 1 near St. Clair, Summerhill and Rosedale Stations.

Spadina, St. George, York Mills, St. Clair, St. Clair West, Ossington, Dupont, Dufferin and Royal York are among the other stations with high prices seen in both the condo and housing markets.

“The best deals on condos can also be found along stops in the east end, with the least expensive by Kennedy station (Lines 2 and 3) at an average of $329,530, Lawrence East LRT at $364,656, and Ellesmere LRT at $382,752,” reads Zoocasa’s report.

“However, those looking to be more central can also find deals among condos for sale in North York, with units close to Sheppard-Yonge costing an average of $596,196, and $620,525 close to North York Centre, or to the west; condos for sale in Etobicoke, such as those close to Islington Station, go for an average of $557,835.”

Here’s how the city break down in terms of most and least expensive places near TTC stations to buy:

The most affordable TTC stops for houses:

Ellesmere (Line 3): $708,489
Midland (Line 3): $716,813
Lawrence East (Line 3): $725,813
Finch West (Line 1): $741,891
McCowan (Line 3): $761,074
The most affordable TTC stops for condos:

Kennedy (Lines 2 & 3): $329,530
Lawrence East (Line 3): $364,656
Ellesmere (Line 3): $382,752 4
Victoria Park (Line 2): $388,953
McCowan (Line 3): $420,572
The least affordable TTC stops for houses:

York Mills (Line 1): $3,426,020
Museum (Line 1): $3,002,150
Summerhill (Line 1): $2,932,837
St. Clair (Line 1): $2,888,106
Sherbourne (Line 2): $2,870,130
The least affordable TTC stops for condos:

Summerhill (Line 1): $1,242,618
Rosedale (Line 1): $1,172,898 3
St. George (Lines 1 & 2): $1,141,827
St. Clair West (Line 1): $1,090,897
St. Clair (Line 1): $1,078,285

Despite overall economic prosperity in recent years, one area that has remained sluggish is homebuying. According to the National Association of Realtors, December existing home sales declined 6.4% from November — the weakest month for existing home sales in at least three years. With fewer homes being sold, the people most directly affected tend to be real estate sales agents, whose incomes are tied to home sales.

As of January 2019, the average annual earnings for real estate sales agents was $41,289, according to salary.com. How much money real estate agents make per year, however, depends on several of factors, such as number of real estate transactions, and commission fees.

Using occupational data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we’ve analyzed and compiled a round-up of the average salary of a real estate sales agent in each U.S. state for 2019. Read on for a full breakdown of where real estate agents make the most money, and where they’re making the least.

10 States Where Real Estate Agents Earn The Most Money
The national average annual wage of a debt collector is $59,630, according to the BLS. Here’s a breakdown of the top-10 states in which real estate agents earn the most:

The states that pay real estate agents the most on average are geographically located in the Northeast, West and South, with three states, five states and two states in each Census-designated region respectively.

10 States Where Real Estate Agents Earn The Least Money
Here’s a breakdown of the top-10 states in which real estate agents earn the least:

This list is dominated by states of the South and Midwest, with one state representing the Northeast.

How Much Real Estate Agents Make In Each State
In just one year, seven states experienced income increases that were greater than 10% for real estate sales agents:

  • Arkansas average annual income for real estate agent: 21.8% increase
  • Utah average annual income for real estate agent: 17.5% increase
  • Pennsylvania average annual income for real estate agent: 14.5% increase
  • Kentucky average annual income for real estate agent: 14% increase
  • Mississippi average annual income for real estate agent: 13.8% increase
  • Texas average annual income for real estate agent: 13.1% increase
  • Oregon average annual income for real estate agent: 10.9% increase
  • Below are all 50 states and how much real estate sales agents earn a year on average.

Over the course of two years, seven states saw real estate agent incomes rise by more than 20%. These states were:

  • Rhode Island average annual income for real estate agent: 52.1% increase
  • Maine average annual income for real estate agent: 37.3% increase
  • Oregon average annual income for real estate agent: 32% increase
  • Mississippi average annual income for real estate agent: 31.4% increase
  • Louisiana average annual income for real estate agent: 29.9% increase
  • Utah average annual income for real estate agent: 24% increase
  • Kentucky average annual income for real estate agent: 20.8% increase

As the U.S. grapples with a housing affordability crisis, a new analysis by Zillow shows 38 percent of homebuyers earned more than $100,000 in 2017.

That’s up 8 percentage points from 2012 and reflects the fact that home values have risen at a much faster clip than wages, making purchases accessible only to those at the top of the income ladder. The figure has climbed quickly in some predictable locations like Seattle, which saw some of the swiftest home-value growth in the nation, Zillow found. But the trend is also pronounced in places such as San Antonio and Minneapolis, which saw increases at double the national rate.
All this is bad news for the widening gulf between rich and poor in the U.S., since households often build wealth through their homes, Aaron Terrazas, a senior economist at Zillow, wrote in a statement accompanying the findings. Between 2012 to 2017, the share of homebuyers earning between $50,000 and $100,000 stayed constant. Those making $50,000 or less fell 8 percentage points, Zillow found.

“If becoming a homeowner trends further toward the exclusive domain of society’s most fortunate, wealth inequality could see an acceleration in the years ahead,” Terrazas wrote.

High-Earning Homebuyers
The share of buyers with six-figure incomes jumped the most in these cities

At a time when they were already suffering from Target’s failed Canadian expansion and the seemingly unstoppable growth of online shopping, the loss of the once-mighty Sears chain felt like yet another body blow for shopping malls in this country.

After all, the departure of an iconic brand — and its large stores in prime spots — would surely mean fewer customers wandering the malls and less money being spent.

But a year after the last Sears stores in Canada were finally shuttered, the picture is a lot less grim than anyone expected – and the future’s looking comparatively sparkly.

“The apocalypse hasn’t happened,” said Diane Brisebois, president of the Retail Council of Canada (RCC), which recently released a study of the 30 biggest malls in the country.

While the loss of Sears hit the bottom line of mall owners, the country’s biggest malls are still a hive of activity, with all but a handful seeing sales rise in 2018, compared to 2017.

Experts point to a variety of reasons, including that Sears had already been drifting away for a few years anyway – selling leases back to mall owners a handful at a time and simply not renewing others. At Yorkdale, which topped the RCC’s rankings with sales of $1,905 per square foot in 2018 (a 15 per cent rise from $1,653 in 2017), Sears left in 2014, after being bought out of its lease by mall owner Oxford Properties.

Other reasons the departure didn’t hit particularly hard? The mall business model has been evolving, and, well, Sears really hadn’t been a big draw in years anyway.

“The Sears store could have been in a parking lot by itself somewhere, and it would have drawn as much foot traffic for the mall,” said Queen’s University real estate professor John Andrew. “Especially over the last few years, the type of customers they were attracting weren’t people who’d be spending the day shopping. You’d be at home and say ‘Oh geez, my washing machine just died.’ Then you’d pull up outside Sears at the mall, pick it up, and walk back out again.”

The nature of malls is also changing, said Andrew, whether it’s the size of the stores, or even what people come to the mall to do.

“The whole model of a big anchor store at one end of the mall attracting people is breaking down,” said Andrew.

At Toronto’s Eaton Centre, Sears left in 2014. Its lease had been bought out, at least partly because big-box leases aren’t particularly lucrative anyway, said Sal Iacono, executive vice-president of operations for mall owner Cadillac Fairview.

“I’m not going to say Sears not being around is a good thing. But the kind of rents they were paying were not as large as you’d expect,” said Iacono. “Anchor leases by their nature are volume discounts.”

At the Eaton Centre, the gigantic Sears space was renovated into a few different spaces, with the biggest one occupied by high-end U.S. department store Nordstrom’s. Smaller spaces typically means higher rents per square foot. It also means more flexibility in the types and size of tenants who can be brought in, often including high-end boutiques, said Andrew.

As malls reconfigure their spaces, they’re also trying to find entirely new revenue streams. Think hotels, think fancy restaurants and more interesting food courts. And think homes.

“There’s a tremendous potential for office space, for condo space, for apartments,” said Andrew.

The sky, quite literally, is the limit.

“Shopping centres realized they had a lot of airspace they weren’t using,” said the retail council’s Brisebois.

Cadillac Fairview already has approval to add 2,000 residential units as part of a 27-acre development centred around its mall in Richmond, B.C., said Iacono. Just as in the retail world, a large part of living beside (or above) a mall — in Richmond or other potential spots — is location, location, location.

“If you think about where malls are, particularly urban ones, they tend to be located centrally, close to transit and closer to where people work,” Iacono noted.

The biggest challenges in building upwards, Iacono said, tend to be engineering ones, rather than philosophical or legal.

“In a retail space, you want as few pillars as possible, to maximize space. So you can’t just drop 50 storeys on top of a retail area. You’d need to add more support, and that means cutting down on retail space, which means less retail revenue. You do a cost-benefit analysis and figure out if it’s viable,” said Iacono. “Everything is possible at a certain cost.”

With those types of developments running tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars and taking years to plan, it’s no coincidence that the companies with the two biggest collections of malls in the country — Cadillac Fairview and Oxford — are controlled by pension companies (the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan and the Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System respectively), said Andrew.

“They’ve got a much longer term perspective,” added Andrew. “If reconfiguring the space means retail suffers a bit for five years, but it means a better long-term future, they can do it. And they’ve got a lot of capital.”

Icing isn’t just something that happens in winter storms or hockey games. It’s the term used when internal combustion engine (ICE) cars park in spaces reserved for charging electric vehicles, thus “icing” out their environmentally friendly counterparts.

It can be the source of heated arguments and it’s just one of the challenges facing managers of parking garages as electric vehicles become a growing phenomenon in cities across Canada.

“Charging stations are expensive to install, and as electric cars become more prevalent, there are more people clamouring to be able to plug in while they park. We’re having to set up special zones in garages,” says Bradley Jones, head of retail for real estate giant Oxford Properties Group of Toronto.

Oxford has already installed more than 150 charging stations in garages and lots across its Canadian portfolio of offices, retail, industrial and hotel properties. Most are Level 2 plug-ins that run on 240-volt circuits and require several hours to top up an electric vehicle (EV) battery. They can cost as much as $10,000 each to install. A few are fast-charging Level 3 units whose high-voltage circuits can provide up to 64 kilometres of driving range for every 10 minutes of charging but cost between $50,000 and $70,000 each to install. (Level 1 is a connection to a standard 120-volt household current, which can take up to half a day to fully charge an EV battery.)

Many commercial installations in Canada to date have been financed by government grants, but those programs are winding down and now the challenge is to find ways to make providing chargers cost-effective, Mr. Jones says. There’s been resistance to paying extra to plug in. “The tenants balk at paying for the charging when they are already paying for parking.”

Oxford has launched a pilot program to test different rate structures at two of its properties in Toronto: the RBC WaterPark Place tower at Queen’s Quay near Bay Street and the MetroCentre Wellington Tower west of the financial district.

At WaterPark Place, the electric vehicle charging zone is on the first level alongside the handicap parking bays. There are 20 spaces marked with large logos on the bright green walls, as well as the floor, indicating that they are charging stations for electric cars. The spaces also are defined by their Level 2 plug-in blocks that are about half the size of self-serve gas pumps and lit with a series of blue lights. All this colour coding should make it clear they’re reserved for EVs, but icing is still a problem, says Marlee Kohn, manager at Oxford Properties. “We’re considering changing the wording to make it clear: ‘This space restricted to electric vehicle charging only.’”

Another challenge is making sure EV owners move out of a stall when their car is charged up, so others may plug in. “We don’t want people occupying a charging stall and leaving their car there all day. That means enforcing time limits and it can mean having attendants to monitor EV parking and overtime fees to ensure cars move when they’re topped up,” Ms. Kohn says.

In Oxford’s pilot program, EV owners pay a flat $5 fee to hook up in Level 2 spaces. If they stay overtime after the charge is complete, it’s an additional 15 cents a minute after a grace period. An app on their phones tells the owner they have 15 minutes to go down and move to a regular parking space.

“Where we have Level 3 chargers, we charge $15 and it’s a 30-cents-a-minute overtime fee. It’s equivalent to what we found is being charged in Vancouver and California, where EVs are common,” she explains.
“When we talk to peers in other cities in Canada and the United States, no one has yet come up with what they consider a perfect procedure,” Ms. Kohn notes. An approach some garages use is to make the EV charging zone a valet area, where the cars are monitored. There are indicators on the plug that go dark when the charge is completed and the valet then moves the car.

Deciding where to put the plug-in spaces can be a significant logistical issue, adds Beverly Tay, general manager at Oxford Properties. The charging stations need to be near garage entrances and that competes with handicap parking and car pooling for premium parking spaces. “We’ve considered putting the charging station area at the far end of lots or further from the front door, but you have to consider how to get the power there.”

The hookups can be complicated because in the past, parking structures weren’t wired for high voltage power.

“At RBC WaterPark Place, that was built in 2014, we installed the conduits and wiring as we built the parking garage,” Ms. Tay says. “All the electrical conduit is embedded in the concrete. In older structures, cabling has to be run along ceilings and through walls. That’s part of the cost you have to consider in retrofitting garages for EV charging.”

So far, the 20 spaces allocated for charging at WaterPark Place have kept up with supply on average days. “We researched and found 80 per cent of time tenants do most of their charging at home so we’re offering a service to them if they need it. If people are planning to drive to the cottage [after work] or they’re going on a longer drive, they are more likely to want to charge while at work,” Ms. Kohn says.

Setting up public charging hubs that are the equivalent of gas bars may happen in the future. And as surface-level parking disappears to development in growing city cores, these may have to be located in parking structures.

“We get pitches from companies that want to set up public charging hubs in our garages. We don’t see much demand at this point for people who aren’t tenants wanting to stop in for a charge. However, as EVs become more common, there will likely be more owners who don’t have garages or chargers at home and will be looking to charge at public lots,” Ms. Kohn predicts.

Around the country

In British Columbia, where EV vehicle populations are growing the fastest, the province has taken the lead in installing charging stations. There are now more than 1,000 Level 2 chargers at stations across the province that will fully charge most vehicles in fewer than five hours. And there are 50 B.C. Hydro-installed DC Level 3 chargers that will do that same job in 30 minutes or less, plus a small network of Tesla superchargers for use by Tesla owners.

The City of Vancouver’s building code bylaw was updated in March of 2018 to require that new commercial buildings have at least 10 per cent of parking stalls wired to be ready for EV charging.

Plug In BC’s workplace charging incentive provides companies and building owners with government funding to support the installation of workplace charging infrastructure. The program is open to B.C. registered businesses, building owners, managers, or other building representatives. The incentive covers 50 per cent of total project costs, up to $4,000 per Level 2 station.

Three new rebates, financed with $1.85-million from the British Columbia government as part of its clean energy vehicle program and administered by Plug In BC, an EV advocacy group, are available through March 31, 2020, although the program could end sooner if the funding runs out, the group cautions.

Ontario cancelled the cap and trade program to bring gas prices down and, it says, help lower costs for Ontario families and businesses. As a result, on July 11, 2018, the electric and hydrogen vehicle incentive program was cancelled.

Quebec has a provincial program to reimburse up to 50 per cent of the costs of installing commercial charging stations. The program expires at the end of 2020.

By the numbers

70,000

Approximate number of plug-in cars registered in Canada to date.

66

Average annual percentage increase in electric vehicle sales in Canada over the past five years.

166

Percentage increase in EV sales in the third quarter of 2018 compared to the similar period a year earlier.

8.3

Percentage of all new passenger car sales in Canada that are electric powered.

2 to 1

The ratio of all-electric cars to gas-electric hybrids sold in Canada in 2018.

8.2

Percentage of new car sales that are EVs in Ontario.

15

Percentage of new car sales that are EVs in British Columbia.

On the shoulders of higher interest rates, Canadian housing affordability continued to worsen in the closing quarter of 2018, according to National Bank’s Housing Affordability Monitor.

To measure housing affordability each quarter in 10 major markets, National Bank looks at how long it would take a typical household to save for a downpayment on median-priced home as well as what share of income monthly mortgage payments would eat up.

For downpayment savings, National Bank economists assume a household saves 10 percent of its pre-tax income. Mortgage payment calculations are based on a 25-year amortization period and a five-year term.

The results from these and other National Bank number-crunching exercises found within the report may surprise readers — even though this marks the 14th straight quarter that affordability has eroded in Canada. Here are 10 of the bank’s findings.

1. Renting a condo will now cost you less than buying one.
National Bank compares what someone would spend on monthly mortgage payments versus the average rent. Since 2011, buying a two-bedroom condo in Canada was, on average, cheaper than renting a similar unit. That changed at the start of 2018, and remained the case by the end of that calendar year.

2. It would take more than 28 years for a typical Vancouver household to save for a downpayment on a home.
A median-earning household in Vancouver would need 340 months to put away enough for a downpayment on a home, including all popular housing types. Some consolation for would-be buyers: when looking exclusively at condos, that timeline drops to 61 months.

3. In Toronto, households have to save for 102 months to afford a downpayment.
The average dating back to 2000 is 45 months, highlighting how Toronto’s ownership-housing costs have skyrocketed in recent years. The number is also well above the national average of 58 months.

4. Households in Canada need to spend half their incomes to cover mortgage payments.
The share of the median Canadian income required to afford monthly mortgage payments continues to rise. At 50.5 percent, the current share is up 3.1 percentage points from a year ago.

5. Despite affordability challenges, downtown condo prices in big Canadian cities are far cheaper than in other global urban centres.
On a price per square foot basis (in US funds), even Canada’s priciest cities compare favourably with other international destinations for downtown living. For 650-square-foot downtown Vancouver apartment, buyers need to shell out $770 per square foot. That may seem hefty, but in Hong Kong, the priciest market National Bank examined, the cost is $2,858 per square foot, and eight other markets crossed the $1,000-per-square-foot threshold.

6. Two Canadian cities saw affordability improve — but only marginally.
Calgary and Edmonton both saw affordability improve slightly on a quarter-over-quarter basis. In Calgary, mortgage payments would require about a third of a household’s mediancome, down just 0.3 percentage points from the third quarter. Meantime, an average household in Edmonton would need to dedicate 22.7 percent of their income to mortgage-related costs, down 0.1 percentage points.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford is pushing to eliminate housing shortages in Canada’s largest province, as policy makers seek to deflate pricey markets in places like Toronto without triggering a correction.

Ford’s housing minister, Steve Clark, began consultations this month on proposed reforms that would give local governments more control over their own housing mix to unlock supply and attract investment. In a background document released in November, the ministry touted the economic benefits of adding 10,000 housing starts a year, an amount builders estimate would bring supply closer to demand.

Supply side measures are seen as critical to restoring affordability in some of Canada’s largest cities like Toronto, where prices have doubled since 2010. They would also ease pressure on policy makers to implement demand curbs that are seen as unnecessarily disruptive.

“We have to remove the barriers and the red tape that are getting ahead of housing being built at a more affordable cost,” Clark said in a telephone interview, describing the affordability issue as a “crisis.”

There is already growing concern that tighter mortgage regulations and other recent changes may have overshot, given last year’s plunge in transactions. Demand measures are blunt instruments that apply to all markets regardless of affordability, and disproportionately affect low-income households and youth. Supply measures, in comparison, allow markets to continue growing, albeit at a more sustainable pace.

Toronto, along with Vancouver on the Pacific coast, has the lowest price elasticity of any urban market in Canada, meaning supply is the most out of sync with demand, according to a report last year from the federal housing agency.

Developers agree. It takes about a decade and as many as 52 different reports, studies, checklists and plans to complete a development project in Toronto, according to the Building Industry and Land Development Association. The group estimates the GTA needs 50,000 new units a year to meet projected demand, but only about 40,000 are being built on average.

“The issue in our view for the sharp rise in prices and the affordability issue fundamentally is the supply side not being able to adjust quickly enough to demand,’’ Robert Hogue, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets, said by phone from Toronto. “So a big part of the solution is on the supply side. Except you have to be more patient, because it takes a while.’’ He said Clark’s proposals “ are the right types of measures’’ to ensure market imbalances get addressed more quickly.

Infrastructure Delays

It’s unclear how Clark’s reforms would affect one major contributor to supply bottlenecks: delays to infrastructure projects such as highways and sewer systems. The minister’s proposed changes to the growth plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, the swath of cities surrounding Toronto that’s home to a quarter of Canada’s population, deal more with speeding up development approvals and updating zoning and intensification targets, rather than streamlining infrastructure regulations that are seen as excessive and unpredictable.

The previous government’s focus on policy ideas just ended up “grinding things down to a halt,” said Joe Vaccaro, chief executive officer at the Ontario Home Builders’ Association. He’s calling on Ford to “clear the decks and get things moving again” by making decisions on several stalled infrastructure projects.

One of those is the Upper York Sewage Solutions Project, a $715 million (Canadian) wastewater treatment system that was supposed to service 30,000 new homes in three towns in York Region, a municipality of about 1.1 million people north of Toronto.

Stalled Sewer

Mike Rabeau, director of capital planning in the region’s environmental services division, began work on the environmental assessment in 2009. Five years and $25 million later, he submitted the 16,000 page report to Ontario’s environment ministry, expecting a decision within eight months. More than four years later, he’s still waiting.

“If you can’t flush a toilet, you can’t build a home,” Rabeau said by phone, adding the expected project completion date is now 2026 at the earliest.

After early signals the project would be approved, environment ministry officials told Rabeau in late 2016 there were some outstanding issues concerning the duty to consult indigenous groups. Discussions between these groups, the provincial government and York Region are ongoing, according to a ministry spokesman.

The delay is typical of a broader problem with building infrastructure in the GTA. “We’re growing at a fairly rapid rate, and we’ve got this conundrum that infrastructure has to go through quite a complex approval process,” James McKellar, a professor at the Schulich School of Business at York University, said in a phone interview. “Our ability to bring infrastructure online in a timely way just doesn’t exist.”

Michael Fenn, a former Ontario deputy minister and a visiting fellow at the Ivey Business School’s Lawrence National Centre, says housing should be given particular emphasis when it comes to infrastructure development. “Keeping housing of a variety of types affordable and available is crucial to the economic success” of the GTA and the country generally, he said.

Clark acknowledges housing supply is a “very complex problem,” and he stopped short of saying the environment minister should approve the York sewage project. He nevertheless understands the municipality’s frustration. “That’s an example of something that, if you talk to the region, is taking way too long to get approved,” he said.

TORONTO — Canada is considering subjecting private lenders to the same mortgage stress test rules faced by banks to prevent housing markets from being destabilized by the lenders’ rapid growth, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter said.

Officials from the country’s finance ministry, financial regulator, central bank and federal housing agency have discussed whether the private lenders’ expansion over the past year poses a threat to economic stability, said the sources, who declined to be named because the talks are confidential.

Private lenders, usually groups of wealthy individuals, currently account for around one-tenth of Canada’s $1.5 trillion mortgage market, according to economists, and are still dwarfed by banks but their growth has accelerated since rules introduced by the country’s financial regulator last year made it harder for banks to grant loans.

Some economists say the new rules effectively transferred risk to private lenders that are more exposed if markets turn because they lack the capital buffers which banks hold and lend out a higher proportion of a property’s value. They say if private lenders hit trouble, it could impact overall lending and accelerate house price declines.

The new B-20 rules, introduced last January, required banks to test borrowers’ ability to make repayments at 200 basis points above their contracted rate, and have resulted in more applications for loans being rejected.

To date, private lenders are not subject to the B-20 rules because they are supervised by provincial regulators rather than the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), the federal regulator. Bringing them under federal supervision would require a change in the law.

Measures to limit their growth were discussed at meetings of the Department of Finance’s Senior Advisory Committee, which provides guidance to Finance Minister Bill Morneau on issues including potential vulnerabilities in the financial system.

The meetings were chaired by Morneau’s deputy minister of finance, Paul Rochon, and attended by top officials from the Bank of Canada, the Department of Finance, OSFI and the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp (CMHC), the sources said.

One option would be for the federal government to ask provinces to apply the B-20 guidelines themselves, the sources said. Private lenders would then also need to provide stress tests on borrowers at a higher interest rate, or 200 basis points above their contracted rate, the same as the banks’ stress test, leveling the playing field.

A less severe alternative under consideration is to recommend provinces ensure private lenders run tighter checks on the ability of their borrowers to repay loans but stop short of imposing the actual stress test, the sources said.

A final decision on the plans has yet to be made.

The agencies all declined to comment.

Mortgage investment companies (MICs), which pool the funds of wealthy individuals to lend to homeowners, have been the main driver of private lenders’ growth, according to mortgage experts, picking up borrowers spurned by the banks.

The MICs, which lend up to 90 per cent of a property’s value, typically charge borrowers annual rates above 10 percent and sometimes as high as 15 to 20 per cent, compared with the 3 to 5 percent offered by banks. Investors in MICs are typically offered returns of 6 to 10 per cent.

The Bank of Canada published data last November showing private lenders accounted for 8.7 percent of Toronto’s residential mortgage market at the end of June 2018, up from 5.9 percent 12 months earlier. Some economists say they are now likely to account for more than 10 percent.

Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets, estimated private lenders could increase their market share to 15 to 20 per cent if regulators do not act and said they should be subjected to the B-20 rules immediately.

“This could have macro-economic significance,” he said in an interview. “Anything over 10 per cent, in my opinion, is already too big and, without regulation, private lenders can grow to more than 15 per cent, which is too strong.”

Although it may seem counterintuitive, cash flow is not the be all and end all of investing in real estate.

“Everyone has such a cash flow mindset, and don’t get me wrong, cash flow is amazing and will help support a different lifestyle eventually, but making those dollars year-over-year is where the wealth comes from,” said veteran investor Lee Strauss of Strauss Investments. “If you have an extra $1,000 in your pocket every year, the return on investment is dismal and doesn’t even add up. But if you take $26,000 year-over-year, now we’re talking.”

Strauss is, of course, alluding to tenants paying down a mortgage’s principal balance for the investor while the latter rides the property’s appreciation.

“On average for a single-family dwelling, the principal pay down is going to be about $6,000 a year,” he said. “The other reason is you have an income-producing asset that is hedged against inflation, and that income-producing asset appreciates, on average, 5%.

“If you purchase a $400,000 property and it goes up by 5% in one year, that’s $20,000 in the first year. Five percent appreciation plus mortgage pay down, which you’re not paying and will be about $6,000, is $26,000 in one year.”

Mind, appreciation is a compounding factor.

“After year three, you’re at about $460,000 on an asset you bought for $400,000, and it’s been paid for by somebody else for three years, so now it’s worth more. After three years, the pay down is $18,000. That’s why people have always invested in real estate; they just didn’t know it.”

Laura Martin, COO of Matrix Mortgage Global and director of Private Lending Hub, notes that the process by which equity is built can be expedited in a couple of ways.

“The first process is by lessening the amortization period and increasing the payments of the mortgage in order to pay it down faster. This means there would be next to no cash flow, but there will be less money going towards interest payments on the loan,” she said.

“The second way is to ‘force’ equity in the home by making improvements that will drive up the property’s value. It’s referred to as ‘forced’ because it doesn’t rely on the external factors of appreciation caused by the real estate market.”

Martin adds that the extent to which an investor ameliorates the property should be determined by how far below market value they paid for it.

Mortgages have some of the best terms available of any loan type, says Martin, and that flexibility can be leveraged to purchase more properties.

“At an average of 3.5-4% on a fixed mortgage with down payments of around 25% and with amortization periods at 25 years—coming across such favourable financing terms with other investments is highly unlikely,” she said. “There is also leverage, in terms of using the asset as collateral, to finance other properties, thus making an increase in net worth more attainable.”

Rising interest rates and strict mortgage qualification resulted in fewer Canadians seeking homeownership than rental accommodations last year, and 2019 will bring more of the same.

“It’s going to continue,” said Marcus & Millichap’s Vice President and Broker of Record Mark Paterson. “People will continue renting rather than dealing with residential mortgages. The rental market right now can barely keep up with the vacancy rate in Toronto, for example, being around 1%.”

Competition for rentals will be even fiercer this year in urban centres and that will push rents upward, creating a spillover effect into satellite markets.

“The rental market will see an increase of 8-10% because of demand,” said Paterson. “Unfortunately for people trying to find affordable housing, they’re looking elsewhere in secondary markets. They’re priced out of city centres, and that means the talent pool for jobs will end up in secondary markets.”

The Marcus & Millichap’s 2019 Multifamily Investment Forecast Report notes that apartment projects have become more financially viable, as evidenced by 60,000 units in the pipeline countrywide. However, that’s little relief given how few vacancies there are.

“The number of occupied units grew by 50,000 last year, outpacing supply growth nationally just as 37,000 new apartments came online,” read the report. “The national vacancy rate declined to 2.4%, the lowest reading since 2002. A shortage of construction workers, a long approval process and higher development and financing costs are slowing the delivery schedule this year, curbing completions by roughly 2,000 units from last year’s total.”

“Historically, Canada has been heavily reliant on condominium owners to supply the rental market, filling the void that purpose-built rentals have not been able to close. Prices have climbed substantially for condo investors, though, slowing this practice… and pushing more residents in search of housing to the apartment market.”

While secondary markets will enjoy the dregs of Toronto’s renter pool, the city will remain popular with renters. As the city has matured into a leading North American tech hub, the vacancy rate is under even more pressure.

“Microsoft, Intel, Uber and other companies have plans to increase operations in the city and bring on new workers,” continued the report. “Amid its solid reputation as a top innovator in tech and a mature ecosystem that supports the industry, the GTA will attract young professionals in greater numbers this year. Many new residents choose to rent, not only due to barriers to homeownership, but for greater mobility and to be near local employers, restaurants and nightlife.”

Ontario Premier Doug Ford is pushing to eliminate housing shortages in Canada’s largest province, as policy makers seek to deflate pricey markets in places like Toronto without triggering a correction.

Ford’s housing minister, Steve Clark, began consultations this month on proposed reforms that would give local governments more control over their own housing mix to unlock supply and attract investment. In a background document released in November, the ministry touted the economic benefits of adding 10,000 housing starts a year, an amount builders estimate would bring supply closer to demand.

Supply side measures are seen as critical to restoring affordability in some of Canada’s largest cities like Toronto, where prices have doubled since 2010. They would also ease pressure on policy makers to implement demand curbs that are seen as unnecessarily disruptive.

“We have to remove the barriers and the red tape that are getting ahead of housing being built at a more affordable cost,” Clark said in a telephone interview, describing the affordability issue as a “crisis.”

There is already growing concern that tighter mortgage regulations and other recent changes may have overshot, given last year’s plunge in transactions. Demand measures are blunt instruments that apply to all markets regardless of affordability, and disproportionately affect low-income households and youth. Supply measures, in comparison, allow markets to continue growing, albeit at a more sustainable pace.

Toronto, along with Vancouver on the Pacific coast, has the lowest price elasticity of any urban market in Canada, meaning supply is the most out of sync with demand, according to a report last year from the federal housing agency.

Developers agree. It takes about a decade and as many as 52 different reports, studies, checklists and plans to complete a development project in Toronto, according to the Building Industry and Land Development Association. The group estimates the GTA needs 50,000 new units a year to meet projected demand, but only about 40,000 are being built on average.

“The issue in our view for the sharp rise in prices and the affordability issue fundamentally is the supply side not being able to adjust quickly enough to demand,” Robert Hogue, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets, said by phone from Toronto. “So a big part of the solution is on the supply side. Except you have to be more patient, because it takes a while.” He said Clark’s proposals ” are the right types of measures” to ensure market imbalances get addressed more quickly.

INFRASTRUCTURE DELAYS
It’s unclear how Clark’s reforms would affect one major contributor to supply bottlenecks: delays to infrastructure projects such as highways and sewer systems. The minister’s proposed changes to the growth plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, the swath of cities surrounding Toronto that’s home to a quarter of Canada’s population, deal more with speeding up development approvals and updating zoning and intensification targets, rather than streamlining infrastructure regulations that are seen as excessive and unpredictable.

The previous government’s focus on policy ideas just ended up “grinding things down to a halt,” said Joe Vaccaro, chief executive officer at the Ontario Home Builders’ Association. He’s calling on Ford to “clear the decks and get things moving again” by making decisions on several stalled infrastructure projects.

One of those is the Upper York Sewage Solutions Project, a $715 million (US$541 million) wastewater treatment system that was supposed to service 30,000 new homes in three towns in York Region, a municipality of about 1.1 million people north of Toronto.

STALLED SEWER
Mike Rabeau, director of capital planning in the region’s environmental services division, began work on the environmental assessment in 2009. Five years and $25 million later, he submitted the 16,000 page report to Ontario’s environment ministry, expecting a decision within eight months. More than four years later, he’s still waiting.

“If you can’t flush a toilet, you can’t build a home,” Rabeau said by phone, adding the expected project completion date is now 2026 at the earliest.

After early signals the project would be approved, environment ministry officials told Rabeau in late 2016 there were some outstanding issues concerning the duty to consult indigenous groups. Discussions between these groups, the provincial government and York Region are ongoing, according to a ministry spokesman.

The delay is typical of a broader problem with building infrastructure in the GTA. “We’re growing at a fairly rapid rate, and we’ve got this conundrum that infrastructure has to go through quite a complex approval process,” James McKellar, a professor at the Schulich School of Business at York University, said in a phone interview. “Our ability to bring infrastructure online in a timely way just doesn’t exist.”

Michael Fenn, a former Ontario deputy minister and a visiting fellow at the Ivey Business School’s Lawrence National Centre, says housing should be given particular emphasis when it comes to infrastructure development. “Keeping housing of a variety of types affordable and available is crucial to the economic success” of the GTA and the country generally, he said.

Clark acknowledges housing supply is a “very complex problem,” and he stopped short of saying the environment minister should approve the York sewage project. He nevertheless understands the municipality’s frustration. “That’s an example of something that, if you talk to the region, is taking way too long to get approved,” he said.

Five years ago, Sarah Sklash, co-owner of the June Motel, visited Prince Edward County for the first time to attend a wine festival. On the car ride home, she knew it was the place for her and immediately began property shopping from the back seat.

Sklash remembers thinking at the time, “I don’t think I can ever afford a house in Toronto but I can possibly own something out here.” After three summers of working with a real estate agent, she finally found the diamond in the ruff — a now-unheard-of under $200,000 waterfront cottage. “Prince Edward County was a very different market back then,” she explains.

Sklash splits her time between her cottage and the city, and many Millennials are following suit. Priced out of Toronto, they’re keeping their rentals and stepping on the first rung of the property ladder with recreational homes. The 2017 RE/MAX Recreational Property Report surveyed Canadians and discovered that almost two-thirds (65 percent) of Millennials (18 to 34 years old) expressed interest in purchasing a cottage, cabin or ski chalet in the next 10 years.

Sklash and her now-fiancé renovated the dated cottage on a budget, ripping out the shag carpets and refreshing the wood panelling with a coat of white paint. The ability to see the potential would come in handy when Sklash partnered with her best friend, April Brown, and got the keys to the June — at the time, a run-down motel by a different name that they lovingly restored into a stylish haven for wine lovers.

The RE/MAX report revealed that Millennials are finding unique ways to finance recreational properties, with nearly half (44 percent) saying they would purchase a property with a family member, while 39 percent would rent it out using a vacation rental site. The June Motel’s other half, April, recently purchased the Boho Bungalow — a cottage across the lake from Sklash — that Airbnb guests enjoy throughout the summer.

Rachel Kwan and her husband Jayar La Fontaine started their homebuying journey in 2016.

“Almost immediately, our first instinct was to buy out of Toronto,” Kwan explains. “We realized that we could get onto the property ladder with a house outside of Toronto, somewhere around the $350,000 to $400,000 range. We couldn’t even find a studio condo in Toronto for that price.”

They had both been working in agency jobs for a few years, but coming from graduate programs, hadn’t been earning long enough to accumulate the savings to justify Toronto’s hefty price tag.

For a year, they put aside the money for their fixed expenses like rent (still affordable, as they had been there for five years), then saved 40 percent of their combined incomes on financing the future country home — putting down 20 percent to avoid paying extra penalties on the mortgage.

The dream was realized last year in a four-bedroom, two-bathroom chalet-style property in Grey County.

“We love the home and we love the location. From the front window we can see all the way across the valley. You cannot get that in Toronto. Period.”

Kwan enjoys the duality of city and country life and considers both places to be home. “In Grey County, the mental load is lower and it’s absolutely gorgeous out here. Being in the city, I enjoy the diversity and convenience. I can go to a show tonight, a gallery, dine at my favorite restaurant. You have access to so much.”

Sklash shared similar sentiments: “When I bought the cottage, I was working in downtown Toronto and escaping to the waterfront retreat on the weekends. Now that my business is in the County, I enjoy the option to escape to the city — eat great Thai food, enjoy my condo.”

Sklash plans to continue splitting her time between her downtown condo and the cottage. Eventually, Rachel and Jayar hope to drop the rental and transition their life to Grey County full-time.

“I run an online shop as part of my business, Jayar needs access to video conferencing. It was imperative that any property we bought was well serviced by telecommunications, which can become a challenge when you start looking in the country,” Kwan says.

Their Grey County real estate agent Eric Robertson noticed a significant migration of people from the city, in large part thanks to technological advances. “People can come up here and resume their normal lives. That has opened a lot of doors for prospective homeowners,” he says.

Grey County has long been a draw for the weekend crowd coming from the city to experience the great outdoors. The Bruce Trail, skiing, some of the best rock climbing you can find in Ontario, and cycling are just a few of the area’s many attractions. “People are visiting for recreational purposes, then seeing homes for sale that are $350,000. They think, hey, we can afford this,” Robertson explains.

Robertson has seen a drastic increase in the number of Millennials coming through his doors looking to get their start building home equity.

“Around 60 percent of my clients are retirees purchasing affordable homes with the equity of their home’s sale. Then there are the first-time homebuyers who are renting in the city, or even living with their parents, and purchasing here.”

Robertson explains the unique buildings are an especially large draw for Millennials — old school houses, churches, century homes, chalets and farms. Old storefronts are also becoming popular to the Millennial crowd who are turning their hobbies into businesses.

“People here are really open to younger folks coming in with an entrepreneurial perspective and contributing to the rebuild of the local economy,” Kwan explains, noting the community as one of the major draws for her. “So long as you make an effort, you will experience camaraderie — the feeling that everyone is in it together — supporting one another and supporting our businesses.”