Canadian house prices hit all time high in January with major price jumps in Toronto and Vancouver

The Teranet–National Bank house price index rose 0.4 per cent in January over December, bringing the composite index to an all-time high. Within the last five months, January’s gain was both the largest month-to-month boost and the first time in that period that a majority of the 11 markets studied saw prices increase from the previous month.

Two of the markets, Toronto and Vancouver, also saw their individual indexes reach all-time highs. Since the index was down month-to-month in January 2013, the increase last month led to an acceleration of 12-month home price inflation to 4.5 per cent in January, up from 3.8 per cent in December.

Here’s how some the markets fared in terms of 12-month home price inflation:

  • Four cities saw price increases above the 4.5 per cent average: Vancouver (7.5 per cent), Calgary (7.1 per cent), Toronto (5.8 per cent) and Hamilton (5.1 per cent).
  • Hovering near the average were Edmonton, which measured a 4.4 per cent increase and Winnipeg, which saw a 3.9 per cent gain.
  • Montreal and Quebec City saw only slight increases, rising by 0.8 and 0.6 per cent respectively.
  • Prices declined in Victoria for the 11th straight month in a row, dropping by 5.7 per cent, Halifax’s 2.9 per cent decrease was the fourth time in six months prices were down, while Ottawa-Gatineau experienced a decrease for the first time in 12-months with their 0.6 per cent decline.

Here’s how the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index fared:

  • Vancouver,Toronto and Quebec City led the markets with 1.1 per cent, 0.5 per cent and 0.5 per cent increases respectively.
  • Calgary equaled the index increase while Hamilton hovered around it with a 0.3 per cent increase and Winnipeg and Montreal both saw prices increase by 0.2 per cent; this was Montreal’s first increase after five consecutive months of declines.
  • Edmonton saw no change, while prices fell 0.3 per cent in Victoria, 1.1 per cent in Ottawa-Gatineau and 1.7 per cent in Halifax.

For more details, check out the chart and table below:

Teranet Jan 14

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CIBC: Excess condo supply will not derail Toronto and Vancouver rental markets

Photo: Boris Mann/Flickr

In a report published on Thursday, CIBC economist Benjamin Tal said that the number of condos currently under construction in Toronto and Vancouver will raise the vacancy rate in the two cities, but the increase will not derail the rental markets.

Looking at market characteristics like a reliance on new immigrants and the impact of falling unit size, the report said that demographically driven demand for rental units had passed its peak in both cities. On the supply side, the number of condo completions expected in the next three years is a source of concern for those who believe that oversupply will spark a cascade of sales by real estate investors, who own a large portion of the new units.

In the report, Tal estimated that 45 per cent to 50 per cent of new condo units under construction in Toronto will be used for rental purposes. With an expected annual completion of approximately 20,000 units, combined with 1,500 to 2,000 annual completions of purpose-built rental units, Tal projected that there will be an excess supply of “just over 1,000 units a year.”

An analysis of the Vancouver market led Tal to draw similar conclusions.

“Such excess supply will raise vacancy rates in the condo space by an estimated 0.3 per cent to 0.4 per cent in both cities in the coming few years,” he said.

“That is not large enough a damage to derail the market or lead to a substantial softening in rent inflation.”

Interest rates are expected to remain low well into 2015, but the inevitable rate increase will lead investors to be more wary of higher financing or opportunity costs. Falling rents, however, will not pose a major challenge for investors.

Renters can look forward to some relief, as the higher vacancy rates will ease rent inflation.

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