Population growth — so, immigration — is a crucial demand driver for the real estate industry, and for the growth of the overall Canadian economy. Last year, Canadian immigration averaged about 28,400 people per month, according to a recent equity research report (on the apartment sector) by TD Bank. The total number for 2019 was 341,175 people.

Not surprisingly, this number fell off in March of this year with the closing of our borders. In March, immigration declined to 18,560 per month and bottomed out in April with only 4,135 immigrants being admitted to the country. This has no doubt been a factor in some of the rent softening that we have seen in the multi-family space.

 

 

While it’s unlikely that Canada will meet its 2020 target of 320,000 to 370,000 new immigrants, it’s important to note that we have seen a fairly swift recovery (see above). In June of this year, the number rebounded to 19,175 new immigrants. And I’m certain that most of this cohort still went straight toward our biggest cities.

It’s also important to keep in mind that Canada’s three-year goal (2020-2022) remains 1 million new immigrants. TD is of the opinion that this target is still attainable, as this “short-term immigration headwind” is likely to flip into a tailwind once our borders become more porous and we get to the other side of this pandemic.

I think it’s pretty safe to say that you could bucket this immigration blip into (1) short-term dislocation. It is not a (3) long-term structural change. Canada remains one of the greatest countries in the world. We will continue to attract smart and ambitious people from all around the world, and most will want to settle in our urban centers.

All of this, of course, will be good for the real estate industry and will be vital to the strength of the Canadian economy as a whole.

Chart: TD Securities

Whether they take place during a pandemic-fuelled recession or during a period of sustained economic expansion, record-shattering home sales in Canada always seem to be accompanied by the same phenomenon: talk of the country’s “inevitable” housing crash.

Questioning the logic of homebuyers who engage in wild bidding wars in the midst of historic job losses is hardly unreasonable, but saying that behaviour will trigger a catastrophic fall in home prices, like the 18 percent decline projected as a potential outcome by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation in May, is a train of thought Nick Kyprianou, president of RiverRock Mortgage Investment Corporation, is encouraging Canadians to abandon.

Talk of a crash in home prices has been persistent since CMHC first floated its dire 18 percent figure, even though neither CMHC nor any other housing authority, lender or brokerage has provided any evidence or metrics that tie current market activity or the economic slide caused by COVID-19 to plummeting home prices. And yet, the spectre of an 18 percent decline persists, hanging over the market like the reaper’s scythe, just waiting to harvest the souls and credit ratings of unfortunate Canadians.

Kyprianou is another market-watcher who can’t fathom the CMHC’s projection. His theory is that, in determining its absolute, institution-destroying, worst-case scenario as part of its annual report to the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, CMHC may have concluded that its own breaking point would come if home prices shrank by 18 percent.

“I think [CMHC CEO Evan Siddall] just spouted off the worst-case scenario,” Kyprianou says. “Well, the chance of the worst-case scenario is so remote, everything has to line-up perfectly – multiple times – for it to happen.”

Using five key metrics to compare the current economic situation to that which proceeded the last true housing crash in Ontario (1989-1995), Kyprianou says today’s consumers can remain confident that home values will largely maintain their strength, even as COVID-19 continues to cast its shadow over the Canadian economy.

1. Interest rates
“Interest rates are your biggest factor,” Kyprianou says “If interest rates keep going up, that’s the biggest burden on housing because your dollar just doesn’t go as far.”

Interest rates almost doubled during Ontario’s last crash, rising from from eight to fifteen percent, putting pressure not only on buyers but the province’s builders as well. That is simply not going to happen this time around. The Bank of Canada estimated that it may not raise its key interest rate target before 2022.

2. Unemployment
There is no question that Canada’s employment situation is a worry. Unemployment was 10.2 percent in August 2020, almost double the rate seen in August 2019. But Kyprianou says there’s more to the story than just the headline.

In the early 1990s, when unemployment was hovering around 11 percent, most of the jobs being lost belonged to high earners – middle management, skilled tradespeople, factory workers – who saw their employers close up shop and move their operations to countries like Mexico during the first rocky years of the North American Free Trade Agreement.

“When these jobs are evaporating and the bulk of the unemployed are the higher income earners, that is going to have an effect on housing,” Kyprianou says, adding that most of the labour disruption caused by COVID-19 has been proven to involve low-wage earners who are predominantly renters, not prospective home buyers.

“That’s a big dynamic change,” he says. “You just can’t look at what the unemployment number is. You have to drill down through it and look at who is unemployed.”

3. Equity
Much of the concern expressed by CMHC’s Siddall over Canadian debt levels and high-ratio mortgages is the risk of borrowers being dragged underwater if falling home prices leave them in a negative equity position. Fair enough. But Kyprianou, quoting statistics provided by Canadian Mortgage Professionals, says the vast majority of Canadians have far more than five percent equity in their homes.

In its most recent Annual State of the Residential Mortgage Market in Canada report, CMP found that 88 percent of Canadian homeowners have equity ratios of 25 percent or higher. Among the 6 million homeowners with mortgages, 81 percent have equity ratios of 25 percent or more.

Kyprianou says there is also the concept of emotional equity to consider. Defaulting on a mortgage is seen as an embarrassing failure most homeowners will do all they can to avoid. He saw many of them get resourceful during the last recession – taking on boarders, getting a second job, asking their families for assistance – as a means of making their monthly mortgage payments. He expects the same level of effort from today’s borrowers.

“You gotta make it work,” he says.

4. Taxes
In the early 90s, sky-high personal and corporate tax rates were deemed responsible for driving companies and individual professionals into the waiting arms of the United States. The resulting brain drain eventually led to lower tax rates in Canada, but the damage was done.

With unemployment high and business confidence muted, it is highly unlikely that taxes will see any kind of significant spike over the near-term. Canadians are likely to be up in arms when their CERB payments are taken into account come tax time next year, and the billions in government aid used to prop up the economy for six months will eventually need to be recouped, but it’s safe to say the feds won’t threaten the nation’s economic recovery – or their polling numbers – by implementing any significant new taxes.

5. Immigration
In the 1989-1995 downturn, the problem wasn’t a lack of new Canadians, it was an inability to keep them. The brain drain days are over, but by limiting international immigration, COVID-19 has thrown a wrench into the works. With just over 100,000 permanent residents being welcomed into the country in the first six-months of 2020, Canada has little chance of hitting its immigration target of 341,000 for the year.

Immigration has been a significant driver of all things good in Canada over the past several years – population growth, innovation, economic expansion, home sales – but Kyprianou doesn’t see a fall in immigration numbers having too negative an impact on home prices, largely because immigrants don’t tend to buy properties for the first two years after arriving in Canada.

“If the pandemic affects immigration for three years, it’s not going to be a problem,” he says. “If it’s just a year, year-and-a-half, it’s not going to be a problem.”

Canada’s reputation for being a stable presence in a chaotic world has also been strengthened by the country’s handling of the pandemic (and the humiliating failure of our neighbours to the south to do the same). Once recovered from COVID-19, the country should still offer the same opportunity for new arrivals to find not only a safe environment to raise their families, but high-paying jobs in growing industries like tech and financial services.

The only sub-market where Kyprianou sees prices softening is high-rise condos. But with so many investors having purchased rapidly appreciating pre-construction properties over the past five years, even those who may be forced to sell, like unlucky Airbnb operators, are unlikely to face a loss. If the average price per square foot in Toronto, for example, falls from its current level of approximately $1,100 to $900, anyone who purchased at $500 per square foot in 2015 will still be making a hefty profit.

“It’s not like there’s going to be a bloodbath,” Kyprianou says. “They just don’t make as much money if they have to sell.”

A series of commercial lots located east of Bayview and Finch avenues could be the future site of a 12-storey W-shaped condo development.

Last week, a Zoning Bylaw Amendment application was submitted to Toronto city planners to construct the angular condominium building at 630-696 Finch Avenue East. The builders behind the project, Tridel and BAZIS, have developed several residential projects across the Greater Toronto Area, including Exhibit Residences, 1 Yorkville and Tridel at The Well.

The 0.95-hectare development site sits on the northern side of Finch Avenue East, equidistant from Bayview Avenue and Leslie Street. The irregularly shaped lot consists of two municipal properties, which are occupied by a one-storey automotive building, surface parking areas and a two-storey shopping centre called Bayview Woods Plaza.

The condo development would house 206 residential suites, plus 9,655 square feet of non-residential gross floor area, 216 bicycle parking spots and 311 parking spaces in a three-level partially underground garage. Designed by Kirkor Architect + Planners, the building would be W-shaped with an angular design that responds to the topographic grade changes across the lot.

“The proposal adapts to this condition by concentrating the majority of the building mass within the centre of the site, while incorporating a series of terraces along its edges so as to provide a transition to the surrounding low-rise neighbourhoods,” explains the planning rationale, authored by Bousfields Inc.

A three-storey podium would support the base of the building structure. Five retail units with access onto Finch Avenue East are proposed for the ground floor and mezzanine levels, along with the residential lobby and garbage areas. Throughout floors two and three, residential units and screened parking areas would be added, while level four would feature indoor amenity rooms that extend onto outdoor amenity terraces, plus additional residential suites.

Floors five to 12 would contain the remainder of the units. In total, 35 one-bedroom, 150 two-bedroom and 21 three-bedroom suites would be included in the development. All units are provided with private balconies or terraces.

In the neighbourhood, sales continue at BT Modern Towns Bayview Village and Concord King’s Landing near Sheppard Avenue East.

When the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdown hit Ontario, some suggested the GTA’s white-hot housing market was going to take a hit.

Six months into the crisis, house prices in Mississauga and surrounding cities are up year-over-year, with the low-rise market experiencing significant price growth as residents flee from condos in search of larger yards and a little additional space.

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reported 10,775 home sales through its MLS system for August, up more than 40 per cent from 7,682 in the same month a year ago. Sales of detached homes rose 50.6 per cent and semi-detached houses climbed 66.8 per cent, while condo sales growth was slower, at 10.9 per cent.

The average price of a home sold in the region was $951,404, up more than 20 per cent from $792,134 a year ago.

“Between March and June … sellers took their homes off the market. A lot of people were afraid to have strangers walking through their homes,” says Michael Grant, a sales representative at Royal LePage Infinity.

“Around mid-July … all of a sudden it seemed that everyone had the same feeling: ‘Let’s jump into the market’.”

In spite of the record-setting sales in July and August, TRREB said year-to-date sales have not caught up to where they were this time last year, given how significant the drop in sales was during the spring. Only sales of detached homes have surpassed 2019 levels so far this year.

“Inside the city people are selling single-family homes, the low-rise models, the detached, the semi-detached, and they are moving out of the city,” says Charlene Williams, real estate broker at Real Estate Homeward Brokerage.

home sales were up 35 per cent year-over-year in the Region of Peel, with 2,301 homes sold in Mississauga, Brampton and Caledon.

Sadly for prospective buyers looking for a break, the average sold property price hit $897,391—a 20 per cent increase compared to last August. Since February, the last full month before COVID-19 emergency measures were implemented, the average home price rose 4 per cent.

Peel Region remained a sellers’ market this August.

As for Mississauga in particular, condo owners are having a little more difficulty offloading their units.

the total number of homes sold in Mississauga for August was up 22 per cent from last year, reaching a total of 950, there was a clear divergence in growth between freehold versus condo properties.

detached house sales were up 49 per cent year-over-year and the average price reached an all-time high of $1,307,832—a 23 per cent increase from last August.

Compared to last year, new listings increased 26 per cent to 586 properties but active listings were down 16 per cent, revealing a higher level of demand for this property type.

In contrast, condo apartment sales were down 11 per cent annually while new listings soared 77 per cent. The increased supply combined with reduced demand pushed the Mississauga condo apartment market near the threshold between a balanced market and a buyers’ market.

Despite the decrease in sales, the average condo apartment price increased by 13 per cent to $540,877 in August.

TRREB says the trend is apparent across the GTA, as condos are increasingly hitting the market as people move toward low-rise communities, “with growth in condominium apartment listings well-outstripping condo sales growth,” according to Jason Mercer, TRREB’s chief market analyst.

Board president Lisa Patel attributed part of the market’s overall sales growth in August to “improving economic conditions and “very low borrowing costs,” as mortgage rates remained low. Statistics Canada previously reported that almost 2.2 million Canadians were unemployed in July, nearly twice as many as in February, but unemployment levels were down from record highs.

“It’s mostly investors that are putting the condos on the market because they are not able to get renters. Tenants aren’t able to pay the rent … they are the ones that have lost their jobs,” says Williams.

Going into fall, market watchers are eyeing how mortgage deferral rates and the end of other government income supports will impact the real estate market, according to a separate report on interest rates released by Finder.com on Thursday.

Sri Thanabalasingam, senior economist at TD Bank, said a Finder.com’s report said that “a partial labour market recovery and ending mortgage deferrals could increase housing supply later this year, potentially putting downward pressure on prices.”

“People want to see what’s going to happen if the deferrals will have an impact on housing prices,” says Grant. “They are interested in holding off but they want that pre-approval, they want to lock-in that (mortgage) rate … They are able to afford more home with lower interest rates.”

Not everyone has a glum outlook: A survey of Remax brokers suggests that the average residential sale price in Canada could increase by 4.6 per cent through the rest of 2020, owing to Canadians looking to flee urban centres in search of more space.

“Predominantly in government, banking, insurance … the clients I’ve worked with just continued to work during the pandemic. There wasn’t any downtime or layoffs, they have just shifted to working from home,” says Grant.

“It’s kind of the haves versus the have-nots. There is not much middle ground in Toronto.”

The Toronto region recorded another month of over 10,000 home sales as buyers seeking low-rise properties made their move before the end of summer.

A total of 10,775 properties changed hands last month, up over 40 percent compared to August 2019, according to data released today by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). The average home selling price also increased substantially relative to a year ago, up 20 percent to $951,404.

“Increased demand for ownership housing has been based on improving economic conditions, in terms of monthly GDP growth and job creation, and the continuation of very low borrowing costs,” said TRREB President Lisa Patel in a media release.

“In addition, fewer households have chosen to go on vacation as a result of COVID-19 and instead have remained in the GTA and been active in the housing market, satisfying pent-up demand from the spring,” she added.

While condo sales recorded a healthy 10.9 percent increase over the previous year, it was single-detached, semi-detached and townhomes that drove the majority of the sales growth recorded in August.

Detached home sales soared by 50.6 percent in the Toronto region, while semis saw a nearly 67 percent sales rise over the previous year. Townhome sales were up 45.8 percent over August 2019.

A similar dynamic played out on the pricing front, with the average sale price for a Toronto region condo rising a relatively modest 9.5 percent to $629,643.

By contrast, all low-rise property types on the regional level saw price growth between 16 percent and 20 percent over the previous year. Drilling down further, it was City of Toronto single-detached homes that saw the largest price increase last month, rising 21.4 percent to $1,505,100.

“Generally speaking, market conditions remained very tight in the GTA resale market in August. Competition between buyers was especially strong for low-rise home types, leading to robust annual rates of price growth,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

“However, with growth in condominium apartment listings well-outstripping condo sales growth, condo market conditions were comparatively more balanced, which was reflected in a slower pace of price growth in that segment,” he continued.

Looking ahead, market commentators have cautioned that the high-flying market performance seen this summer will likely cool as pent-up demand held over from the spring fades, government income support programs wind down and the threat of a second wave of COVID-19 infections weighs on homebuyer confidence.