Toronto’s regional transit network could have looked much different in an alternate timeline, and one high school student from Hamilton has visualized how the GO Transit system may have looked in a reality where every single proposal played out as first envisioned.

William (who prefers to be identified by first name only), a 16-year-old student with a passion for transit and graphic design, created a map that depicts what the GO Transit network could have looked like if all projects proposed since 1965 had been realized.

His detailed creation — gradually crafted over a period of nine months — showcases an almost unrecognizable regional transit network with new lines, stations, and extensions.

William tells us that the “what if” map was a labour-intensive process of finding proposals and rearranging the design several times to make everything fit to scale.

“Some of the proposals and projects I discovered were very obscure projects I had never heard of before,” he explains.

“This includes a line going to the planned 2008 Toronto Olympic Village grounds from Union Station, a line following a hydro corridor along Finch Avenue in Toronto connecting northern Toronto with the never built Pickering International Airport, and lines connecting popular attractions such as Casino Rama, Ontario Place, and a more direct line to Table Rock in Niagara Falls.”

This could be the first modern regional transit map showing an international connection, with William saying that “one proposal was an extension beyond Ontario into Niagara Falls, NY, which would have been the first international commuter rail line in North America.”

The map includes lines that would have radically altered the look of transit in Toronto. William discusses projects like a dead proposal for an Ontario Place Line, “planned to be built with new experimental technology under a project called GO Urban.”

“Others were planned to be electrified with GO ALRT technology, which resembled the soon-to-be-closed TTC Scarborough RT, however, most lines were going to be built with conventional rail technology.”

In a rather unconventional graphic design move, he explains that he used an app on iOS called YouDoodle+ instead of the industry standard Adobe Illustrator. He used these tools to create a similar project several months ago, mapping out what the TTC rapid transit network could look like in 2035.

William was inspired to create this project with the hope of shining a light on some of GO Transit’s little-known history.

He says that “using the official GO Transit map with all the old and dead projects added onto it really shows off how much the GTHA could’ve had, but doesn’t due to funding cuts and public opposition to transit projects in the late 20th century.”

 

The Bank of Canada raised the target for its overnight rate by 50bps to 3.75% in its October 2022 meeting, below broad expectations that pointed to a more aggressive 75bps increase. Still, it marked the sixth consecutive rate hike, adding to the 350bps in interest rate increases in the current tightening path and pushing borrowing costs to their highest since 2008. Policymakers also signaled that interest rates will need to rise further to curb inflation, as the bank’s preferred measure of core inflation has not shown meaningful evidence of easing. The updated CPI projections point to inflation to be at 3% by 2023 before returning to the target level of 2% by 2024. Regarding growth, the BoC expects the Canadian economy to expand a slower 3.25% this year and less than 1% in 2023. The central bank also said it will continue its policy of quantitative tightening.

source: Bank of Canada

The city hopes to coax affordable secondary units into Hamilton’s housing market through a forgivable loan pilot program.

The $250,000 initiative offers applicants of low to moderate income up to $30,000 to build or renovate suites in single-family homes.

Those secondary units — whether basement apartments or garden suites — must rent for no more than average market rent.

“It both provides an opportunity for income for that family,” said Michelle Baird, the city’s housing director. “It also helps us with respect to providing affordable rental units within the private market,”

Average market rent, as measured by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), translates into $914 for a Hamilton bachelor unit and $1,095 for a one-bedroom, Baird noted.

That CMHC metric is lower than what landlords ask for vacant units. An average local one-bedroom is going for $1,683 a month, according to Rentals.ca’s latest report.

During the term of 15-year forgivable loan, the maximum rent can’t exceed the average market rent.

To be eligible for the provincially funded pilot, applicants must have an annual household income of less than $92,600, while prospective tenants must have a maximum income of $62,500.

Baird said the pilot must strike a balance on the maximum rent cap to ensure the program is viable for homeowners.

“At the end of the day, it also has to be profitable for the individual who gets this forgivable loan — that we do want to see this both as an affordable unit, but also as an opportunity for a low-income family to generate some income through this.”

The maximum loan amount is $25,000 with an additional $5,000 if projects involve accessible apartments. A city report on secondary units noted a “modest” basement-to-suite conversion runs $60,000 to $80,000 or more.

Baird recognizes the pilot is limited in scope — with loans for about 10 units — but notes staff will monitor its uptake and explore funding sources for a potential expansion.

“In Hamilton, we continue to experience a housing crisis, so we’re looking for every opportunity — be it small or big — to have an impact there, so this is an opportunity for us.”

The city has aimed to increase Hamilton’s rental stock and increase residential density by encouraging secondary units.

In 2021, council backed a bylaw to regulate secondary units and allow for two units per single-family residence: one internal, like a basement apartment, and another external, such as a laneway suite.

This week, the city said 28 building permits have been issued for secondary units since 2017. Among those, 16 were issued since last year’s bylaw changes.

Texas-based 3D technology company ICON, has broken ground on what will become the world’s largest 3D-printed community. The neighborhood located North of Austin in Georgetown, Texas will consist of 100 3D-printed homes codesigned by Bjarke Ingels Group (BIG) and implemented by Lennar, a large construction company based out of Florida, was first announced in 2021. The project site is within Wolf Ranch, a master planned community owned by Hillwood Communities, a subsidiary of Perot Investments.

“We are excited to welcome Lennar and ICON’s cutting-edge home construction technology to Georgetown,” Georgetown Mayor Josh Schroeder said in a press release. “The Georgetown community prides itself on honoring our past and innovating for our future, and we are eager to see the future being built right here.”

Eight unique floor plans ranging from 1,500 to 2,100 square feet of living space, with three to four bedrooms and two to three bathrooms with prices starting at $400,000 will be available. The homes will feature rooftop solar panels, Ring video doorbells, and wifi-enabled locks and thermostats.

To automate the manufacturing of homes ICON is using its Vulcan robotic construction system, a large, transportable printer that can be used in tandem with Magma, a cement mixing machine. The homes are being constructed out of Lavacrete, a durable-concrete polymer added in layers to form the structure’s facade and foundation by Vulcan. Their design blends Texas ranch vernacular with sustainable technology, providing a model for the future of large-scale 3D construction. The residences will adhere to a common design, featuring metal roofs, concrete floors, and distinct curvilinear and rib-textured concrete walls, which are the product of 3D printing.

“For the first time in the history of the world, what we’re witnessing is a fleet of robots building an entire community of homes. And not just any homes, homes that are better in every way… better design, higher strength, higher energy performance and comfort, and increased resiliency,” said Jason Ballard, cofounder and CEO of ICON. “In the future, I believe robots and drones will build entire neighborhoods, towns, and cities, and we’ll look back at Lennar’s Wolf Ranch community as the place where robotic construction at scale began. We still have a long way to go, but I believe this marks a very exciting and hopeful turn in the way we address housing issues in the world.”

While ICON has worked on a number of 3D-printed houses across Texas and North America, it has also built on barracks at the Camp Swift Training Center in Bastrop, Texas and Fort Bliss and in 2021 partnered with BIG on design for a 3D-printed Martian habitat prototype for NASA’s Johnson space center.

California engineer Curtis Wong is applying tech innovation to the affordable housing crisis and hoping his ideas will take hold across the U.S.

The former employee of Elon Musk’s SpaceX is the founder of startup Cloud Apartments, which has a patented design for contemporary, cool-looking apartment modules and snap-together construction. The young company, based in San Francisco’s Bay Area, has received state approvals and they are working on a San Jose, Calif., site to erect a six-storey, 205-unit apartment building over a concrete podium, made up of “tech’d out” studios and one- and two-bedroom units. He has four other deals underway with developers, totalling 1,000 units in the Bay Area. Because off-site, factory-built modular construction is generally much faster than conventional on-site construction, he says the units will be more affordable due to savings of around 30 per cent.

Mr. Wong says it’s going to take a more creative approach that defies the norm if North Americans are going to solve the affordable housing problem. He had worked as a structural engineer for several years but grew tired of the lack of innovation, so he joined space exploration company SpaceX and worked on the launch pad in Cape Canaveral, Fla. The work pace was thrilling but too exhausting, so he went back to school and obtained a masters of business administration degree from Harvard University. He quickly discovered he could apply his tech know-how to housing, by standardizing the process.

“There are reasons that innovation is so hard within construction compared to SpaceX, if you want to compare those two worlds,” Mr. Wong says. “With SpaceX, there are no regulatory government agencies watching you the whole time, making sure you are following building codes. You cowboy it, do what you want and a lot of cool stuff happens. Within construction there are lenders, developers, government agencies permitting all that stuff, and it slows you down from innovating. … What I know about innovation, and bringing that back to the construction industry was pretty tempting.”

The goal is to wipe out the negative image of modular construction, the way that the electric car went from being an outlandish idea to today’s Tesla. The unique angle on construction is that the high-tech units are shipped to site 95-per-cent complete, a “plug and play” approach to building. Cloud’s studio apartment has built-in moveable furniture, such as bed that lifts up to make way for a couch, a projector for TV watching and an integrated battery that can power the unit off the grid for 24 hours. Such features are useful in the face of climate change.

But the key to his concept is not just designing cool interiors, but standardization of the units. He says they can reduce construction time by 50 per cent, and with their team of collaborators, they have the capacity to build about 10,000 units a year.

A standardized building design would also expedite permitting times because developers wouldn’t have to start all over again as they do with a one-off design.

“If you want to talk about how to use modular to save on costs, you have to think about it like how you think about automotives,” Mr. Wong says. “Henry Ford reduced the cost to build a car based on the assembly line that he pushed. The way he did that, he had the assembly line, mass efficiency through the factory, and standardization of what the automobile is – you paint them all black, you churn them out make them accessible to mainstream America and the world.

“What we are doing with Cloud Apartments is using the same mindset with modular, because currently modular is not standardized. Every building is still a one off, and totally different.

“We are completely standardizing the units by thinking of them like products.”

The hotel industry has already cottoned on, with major hotel brands such as Marriott now building modular construction. The chain just built the world’s tallest modular hotel in New York with pre-fabricated and pre-furnished guest rooms, a 26-storey building topped off with a modular rooftop bar.

“Building in a factory is how luxury cars are made, so the potential is much higher to make a nicer quality [home]. There are a ton of efficiencies, not just the improved quality, but also driving down the cost of housing.”

His company works with local factories and furniture designers. The units are state-approved, although they would still have to be approved at the local level.

“Out here, we have state of California permits for factory built housing. We did that whole process so that the Cloud-S unit can be built anywhere in California now. It’s one little advantage of modular construction, at least in state of California, that you have a better approval process.”

Part of the reason that the industry is starting to look to off-site construction is for the same reasons that European countries and Japan embraced the method: to reduce energy costs. The labour shortage is another.

According to BuildForce Canada, the residential construction sector will need 107,000 new workers over the next decade. And that number doesn’t even factor in federal initiatives to double the number of new homes built over the next decade, to address record-setting immigration.

“The idea of importing highly skilled tech workers is great, but where are they all going to live?” asks Rocky Sethi, chief operating officer for Adera Developments.

Adera is one of several Vancouver area developers that have embraced the use of off-site construction. This year the company launched two projects built with its patented mass timber sound absorbing panel system, Pura in Surrey, B.C., and SoL in West Coquitlam, B.C. Mr. Sethi says prefabricated off-site methods used for their Crest condo development in North Vancouver, B.C., resulted in a labour reduction of about 50 per cent. The building was framed 30-per-cent faster than usual, says Mr. Sethi. That’s helpful, because the number of tradespeople is in rapid decline, due to the fact that they’re aging out and the younger generation isn’t going into the trades.

“I’ve been in construction for over 20 years and the funny thing is we always talk about a shortage of labour. Skilled labour has always been a challenge but now it’s a challenge getting labour of any kind. And it’s not just through peak periods,” he adds. “We don’t have enough people to sustain us through a somewhat slower market over the next six to 12 months.”

But the challenge to using modular is the many municipal regulations that get in the way and don’t necessarily add anything to the project, Mr. Sethi says.

“What the industry needs to focus on is delivery of housing. Otherwise, it just makes my development more expensive and takes more time for approval. [For example], re-orientating a building, how does that make one bit of difference to somebody who needs a home to live in? It doesn’t.

“I think that modular does have a place, but we have a long way to go until that’s widely adopted for a number of reasons way outside the control of modular home builders. We are talking provincial and municipal rules and regulations, and we have 22 municipalities in Metro Vancouver that all have their own requirements.”

The innovative construction business is not without its risks. Mr. Wong worked on Starcity Minna, a 16-storey, 270-unit residential modular high-rise targeting middle-income residents that was also started by a tech entrepreneur. Plans for the project fell apart during the pandemic. But despite pushback, it had reached the approval stage. Mr. Wong sees that experience as a learning opportunity.

“That was somewhat of a bomb when the planning commission in San Francisco saw we wanted to do modular. It’s probably the same in Vancouver and everywhere, ‘oh it’s low-quality housing, we don’t want it.’ But one thing that is starting to change is that reaction is disappearing from other cities that have done modular.”

Craig Mitchell, principal of Vancouver-based BlackBox Offsite Solutions and modular construction expert, says he’s been tracking U.S. companies such as Cloud Apartments because they are moving into market-rate rental. In Canada, the modular industry has seen growth because of government-funded social housing.

Mr. Mitchell said there is considerable interest among private U.S. developers to use off-site construction.

“It’s the private developers and owners that have now adopted modular as they are seeing great case studies, which his attracting considerable investment,” he says of the U.S. market.

“The development costs with conventional construction are astronomical, so they are beginning to accept alternate forms of construction more readily, which are bringing new players into the market.”

It helps that the U.S. has denser markets than Canada, he added.

Toronto’s development industry has been sent into a frenzy with Pinnacle International’s submission of revised plans for its Pinnacle One Yonge development that would increase the height to 92 and 105 storeys. Designed by Hariri Pontarini Architects, the latest revisions see additional height and density requested for the phase 2 and 3 towers of the project, increasing the height by enough to position the development, if approved, as the tallest building in the country, a title that is also being sought by Mizrahi Developments at The One.

The proposed changes are outlined in an application for Zoning By-law Amendment that seeks to permit the approval of height increases of 10 and 12 storeys for the approved 95- and 80-storey towers, respectively. As a result, the phase 2 tower would reach a staggering 105 storeys with a total height of 345m, and the phase 3 tower would be boosted to 92 storeys, reaching a height of 306m. Instead of just one ‘supertall,’ a building over 300 metres, there would be two at this site.

These height increases are being applied to the most recent designs for phases 2 and 3, which came forward in 2021. The designs offered an update to a previous design iteration which dated back to 2017, and made some notable alterations to the exterior massing, specifically on phase 2. Looking at the 2017 design below, phase 2’s exterior was visually characterized by non-load-bearing diagonal frames that appeared on curtainwall sections, while in terms of massing, the inward tapering of both the base and the top of the tower, and the rounding of the corners worked towards creating a less orthogonal volume that was a distinct form in the skyline.

The 2021 design, below, reimagined the appearance of phase 2 in favour of a simpler design that allowed for a notable increase in balcony area. The diagonal framing was replaced by fewer but more sinuous lines that rise from the podium and climb the towering elevations, adding some visual articulation to the corners of the building. The tapering still occurs at the top of the tower, but rather than getting narrower at the base, the tower emerges more gradually from the podium, receding on a smooth curve.

The proposed 2022 additions to the heights of the phase 2 and 3 buildings would bring 958 and 859 units respectively, or a total of 1,817 units to the site.

For several years now, both Pinnacle One Yonge and its fellow prospective supertall, The One, have generated an alternating flurry of headlines. Skyscraper fans of Toronto and beyond have followed closely as both projects rise, captivated by the promise of being witness to the completion of Canada’s first supertall building. With both projects delivering world class designs that bear the marks of globally renowned architects, the only thing more media-friendly than the towers themselves has been theatrics of a perceived competition between the two.

Whether intentionally or not, the projects have been viewed as rivals not only in a race to be built first, but also in a contest of height, and as this most recent revelation demonstrates, there has been no shortage of surprises along the way. For those keeping score, in the wake of Pinnacle’s latest move, The One still has a head start in terms of construction progress, but as far as being the tallest building in Canada is concerned, the scales have been tipped.

UrbanToronto will continue to follow progress on this development, but in the meantime, you can learn more about it from our Database file, linked below. If you’d like, you can join in on the conversation in the associated Project Forum thread or leave a comment in the space provided on this page.

 

Count economist Benjamin Tal among those who do not see a housing crash in Canada in the near future.

Tal, the deputy chief economist at CIBC, also suggested during a recent speech to engineers that the world’s producers are showing signs of coming to grips with the global supply chain problem, praised the Bank of Canada for showing restraint on its latest interest rate hike and gave a thumbs-up to a recent housing expansion plan introduced by Ontario’s Doug Ford government.

The economist was the morning keynote speaker on the second day of the Association of Consulting Engineering Companies — Canada national leadership conference held Nov. 1 to 3 in Ottawa. His session, moderated by Jeff Lutzak, partner at RSM Canada, was billed as Canada’s Economy: Where We Are Today and Where We Will Be.

Tal offered his analysis of the last two years of Canada’s extraordinary housing market.

“The housing market was on fire. We are talking about what, a 46-per-cent increase in two years? That’s madness,” he said of late 2020 into early 2022.

What happened was that early in the pandemic, most of those who lost their jobs were low wage earners.

“But homebuyers, traditional homebuyers, their job was there, their position was there, their income was there, and interest rates were in the basement,” Tal said.

“If you think about it for a second, homebuyers during COVID got the benefit of a recession, with a significant decline in interest rates, without the cost of a recession.”

He has never seen anything like it, Tal said, the sense of urgency to get into the housing market during that period.

Seen in retrospect, those purchases can be considered front-loaded activity.

“We borrowed activity from the future,” Tal said, and now, amidst spiking interest rates, housing prices in the GTA have gone down 19 per cent since their February 2022 peak and further drops are projected into next spring.

Said Tal, “The future has arrived. This is not a crash. This is not a meltdown. This is basically reallocation of activity over time.”

Tal noted he was speaking just about the same time as Canada’s Minister of Immigration Sean Fraser was announcing an expansion of immigration quotas for the next three years, reaching 500,000 in 2025. Negotiations will ensue to determine how many from the enhanced economic-immigrants category will be skilled construction workers.

The need for more skilled workers in that stream is desperate, Tal said, noting 400,000 immigrants were welcomed to Canada last year.

“How many construction workers did we get out of those 400,000? Zero,” he said.

But “overall it’s a very positive story,” said Tal, “We got six times more immigrants than the U.S. and that’s one of the reasons why our labour market is better supplied than others.”

Rising costs in the construction sector are having a major impact on project investments, Tal said, with numerous reports of delays and outright cancellations.

“There are three sources of inflation: supply-chain-driven inflation, demand-driven inflation, and we-don’t-know inflation,” Tal said. “Supply chain is 50 per cent of inflation. You remove supply chain from the story, we remove 50 per cent of inflation.”

And that appears to be happening, Tal said — logistics are improving, freight is booming, and even the number of truck drivers in the U.S. has escalated 20 per cent since before the pandemic.

Assessing recent actions of the Bank of Canada, Tal said the move to raise interest rates only 50 basis points in late October signalled that in future Governor Tiff Macklem would move moderately in attempting to tame inflation, cognizant of the need not to sabotage the economy.

The bank is saying, “We don’t want to overshoot,” said Tal.

“You can pray that the Bank of Canada will stop at 4, 4.5 per cent. That’s our forecast. Then keep interest rates relatively stable for a year and then start cutting.”

Federal fiscal policy must be aligned with the Bank of Canada, Tal said.

Otherwise, “It’s like putting a humidifier and a dehumidifier in the same room and seeing who wins.”

Tal also had positive words for Ford’s new housing plan, contained in the More Homes Built Faster Act unveiled Oct. 25. The act would streamline approvals, relax zoning regulations and cut development fees among other reforms.

“It’s the most significant housing policy change in many, many years,” said Tal.