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The Bank of Canada’s decision to increase interest rates to 1.75% Wednesday was not a surprise to many, but an omitted word is perhaps more so.

Dr Sherry Cooper, chief economist of Dominion Lending Centres says it was interesting that Governor Stephen Poloz did not continue to say that rates would rise “gradually”.

“Market watchers will certainly note this omission,” she says. “For the first time in years, the Bank has acknowledged it expects to remove monetary stimulus from the economy entirely.”

Dr Cooper says that the policy of the BoC is now to increase interest rates to a ‘neutral stance’ of between 2.5% and 3%. That will require another three rate hikes of 25 basis points over the next year or so.

Household debt is a concern
Although the economy is moving in the right direction, the BoC remains concerned about Canadian oil prices, especially with constrained pipeline capacity.

Then there is the issue of rising household debt.

In the BoC’s Monetary Policy Report is states: “Higher mortgage rates and the changes to mortgage guidelines are affecting the dynamics of housing activity. Housing resales responded quickly to the new mortgage guidelines, and the level of resale activity is expected to continue on a lower trajectory than before the changes. New home construction is shifting toward smaller units, although stronger population growth is estimated to raise fundamental demand for housing.”

Although the level of high loan-to-income ratio mortgages has declined which the BoC says has “reduced household vulnerabilities”, Dr Cooper points out that the bank remains concerned about the “sheer size of the outstanding debt”.

This, she says, is bank double speak for three more rate rises.

Canada’s big banks have all reacted to Wednesday’s BoC decision with increases to their prime lending rates.

A new domain name suffix will be opened up to all in November following a pre-registration period for Realtors.

The .realtor designation will be available through around 20 domain registrars including GoDaddy and get.realestate and unlike the .realtor top level domain it is available to anyone from November 26.

As an international recognized and descriptive term, the .realestate domain is expected to be very popular and industry professionals and firms will want to ensure they get their name before the ‘cybersquatters’ get busy.

The pre-registration period closes 10 days before the general release and is exclsuively for real estate professionals who already hold an active .realtor name – only available to members of the National Association of Realtors and associated organizations such as CREA.

“The real estate market is always pushing innovation, from virtual reality walkthroughs to leveraging the cloud for transactions and now domain name extensions,” said GoDaddy Senior Director of Product Marketing, Paul Bindel. “The beauty of .realestate is that it tells visitors exactly what to expect when they visit the site. It’s memorable, easy to spell and descriptive, all great traits for a domain name.”

Staff at Avison Young will join together for the firm’s fifth annual global Day of Giving on Thursday.

The Toronto-based real estate firm’s initiative began in 2014 and this year will take place across 84 offices as part of the company’s global citizenship strategy.

Each Avison Young office has chosen its own community volunteer project in consultation with the charity that will receive the assistance.

“On October 25, employees in Avison Young’s 84 offices in Canada, the U.S., Mexico and Europe will again volunteer to assist community organizations that lend a helping hand to people dealing with some of life’s most difficult challenges,” says chair and CEO Mark E. Rose.  “This is our small way of trying to make a big difference in the lives of others who need assistance, often due to no fault of their own. As we help initiate change at the grassroots level, we will also be promoting the principles of sustainability through action and partnership.”

Local staff activities will range from packing food at food banks; to painting, cleaning and landscaping at animal and youth shelters; to making crafts with senior citizens.

A new scheme aims to create affordable rental housing in Alberta with plans for similar projects nationwide.

The Alberta Rural Development Network’s (ARDN) Sustainable Housing Initiative (SHI) will see the development of at least 8 energy-efficient affordable housing shipping container projects with the first phase seeking to create up to 467 rental units over the next two years.

Funding will come from the National Housing Strategy’s Affordable Housing Innovation Fund which will provide $10 million for the initiative.

“If you don’t have a home, it’s very difficult to build a life. Investment in affordable housing is critical to ensuring that Canadian communities continue to thrive,” said Kent Hehr, Member of Parliament for Calgary Centre. “Our Government is proud to support innovative organizations like ARDN as they work to design efficient, forward-thinking housing solutions that not only work here in Alberta, but could easily be replicated in rural communities across the country. Cultivating bold new ideas like this is exactly what the Affordable Housing Innovation Fund is all about.”

The YWCA Banff Courtyard Project is the first under this new initiative to be announced. The 33 unit, 3-story cost effective project will meet net-zero targets for energy efficiency and provide affordable rental housing for up to 78 residents who face barriers to finding suitable accommodation. The Courtyard will be ideal for women, new and extended families, individuals, and with a least four suites that are barrier free, people with accessibility needs.

“I believe the YWCA Banff Courtyard project will act as a landmark development that will redefine how affordable housing is built in rural communities across Canada,” said Joshua Bénard, Director, Sustainable Housing Initiative ARDN.

Sales of homes in the $1-2 million price range are the focus of a new report from RE/MAX.

It found that sales of luxury condos have increased in 2018 compared to 2017, especially in Canada’s large urban areas.

In Toronto there was a 2% rise in luxury condo sales while Vancouver posted a 6% gain, and sales in Victoria surged 19%.  These increases have been driven mostly by Baby Boomers downsizing and Millennials investing in the more-affordable condo market.

“Many Canadian Baby Boomers saw the strength of the real estate market over the past two years as an opportunity to cash-in, downsize and upgrade into the luxury market for retirement,” says Christopher Alexander, Executive Vice President and Regional Director, RE/MAX INTEGRA Ontario-Atlantic Canada Region.

Meanwhile, sales of luxury single-detached homes have declined with those in the $1-3 million range declining 37% in Toronto and 31% in Vancouver.

Foreign buyers give way to locals
The foreign buyers tax continues to impact this property segment with local buyers dominating.

For homes priced at $3 million and above, the decline in sales in Toronto and Vancouver is even steeper – 44% and 45% respectively. Sales of condos in this price range were unchanged in Toronto but declined 13% in Vancouver.

Victoria saw a 67% surge in sales of condos in the $2-3 million range but a decline of 40% in those over $3 million.

The new trilateral trade deal between Canada, the US, and Mexico has prompted a rise in confidence among Canadian consumers.

The weekly Bloomberg/Nanos Research Canadian Confidence Index has increased to 57.43 compared to 55.65 four weeks ago and is up more than a point from last week.

The sub-index tracking sentiment surrounding personal finances and job security edged lower (60.85 vs. 61.45 four weeks ago) but there was a sharp rise for the sub-index which tracks expectations for the economy and real estate prices (54.01 vs. 49.86 four weeks ago).

“Positive sentiment on the future strength of the Canadian economy has increased five points in the last four weeks,” said Nanos Research, Chief Data Scientist, Nik Nanos. “Also of note, sentiment on real estate values has registered an increase in positive views.”

The share of respondents who are positive about real estate prices increased from 39.20% last week and 37.76% four weeks ago, to 41.41 this week. That beats both the 2018 average of 40.45% and the 10-year average of 37.86%.

On personal finances, the share of respondents who say they are worse off than a year ago (23.31%) is larger than those who say they are better off (19.95%) but most (55.74%) say there has been no change.

Almost half say they are confident about their job security.

Sentiment overall increased for all provinces and age groups, and all income groups apart from those earning $75,000 and above.

Homeowners’ sentiment grew more than renters.

A Korean real estate fund manager has made its first large loan secured on Canadian commercial real estate.

KTB Asset Management has originated a C$165 million non-recourse, 5-year fixed-rate loan secured by Hotel X Toronto.

The 404-guest-room hotel is located within the city’s Exhibition Place and had a soft opening in April 2018. The hotel is owned by a limited partnership consisting of New York-based Henry Kallan, Alex Rovt, and Joshua Durst and is operated by the Library Hotel Collection, which owns and operates seven luxury boutique hotels worldwide.

Housed in a tower that rises 30 storeys above the waterfront, Hotel X is home to a private members sports club, rooftop bar, 250-seat cinema, and forthcoming spa. It has spectacular views of Downtown Toronto and Lake Ontario and is set in 6 acres of beautiful gardens.

The loan origination marks a landmark for Korean investment in the Canadian CRE market and Jaesang Eum, Head of Global Alternative Investments at KTB suggests there will be more to come.

“Although Korean investors have been one of the most active global real estate investors over the past 5 years, this is one of the first large loans originated by them in the Canadian market” he said. “This is an untapped market for Korean investors and we look forward to bringing more Korean capital to the Canadian real estate market.”

Two internationally renowned and recognized experts on money laundering have joined the panel investigation illicit activity in British Columbia’s real estate market.

Tsur Somerville – from the University of British Columbia’s Sauder school of business – and Brigitte Unger – from the University of Utrecht in the Netherlands – have been appointed to join the Province’s Expert Panel on Money Laundering.

Both are experts on real estate finance, public economics, and money laundering.

They join the panel headed by Maureen Maloney, a public policy and dispute resolution professor from Simon Fraser University and former B.C. deputy attorney general, which will look at gaps in compliance and enforcement of existing laws, consumer protection, financial services regulations, regulation of real estate professionals and jurisdictional gaps between B.C. and the federal government.

“Our overheated housing market is vulnerable to those looking to exploit loopholes and engage in illicit activity, while families are being priced out,” said Carole James, Minister of Finance. “This is an unacceptable situation and we are moving to ensure that B.C. has world-leading protections against money laundering, and that fairness is returned to our real estate sector.”

The panel’s final report and recommendations is due in March 2019.

With the Bank of Canada widely expected to increase interest rates Wednesday, a poll from debt advisors MNP shows rising concern over higher rates.

The survey, conducted by Ipsos, found that 1 in 3 Canadians are worried that rising interest rates could push them towards bankruptcy, up 6% since June.

More than half (52%) of respondents said that they are concerned about affording their debts as rates climb, that’s up 3% since June.

The share of those who say they are feeling the effects or recent rate rises; and the share who say future rises could put them in financial trouble; both hit 45%.

Almost two thirds of both Millennial and Gen X respondents are concerned about the impact of interest rate rises on their ability to service debts, while Boomers are less concerned (40%).

The poll reveals that 80% will cut back on spending to counter the effects of rising rates and there is some optimism about debt situations with 28% saying theirs has improved in the past year, 39% expecting improvement in the next year, and 50% saying improvement will be within 5 years.

Two in five said they regret the level of debt they have.

Albertans (20%) are most likely to say their current debt situation is worse, followed by residents of Atlantic Canada (17%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (15%), Ontario (13%), Quebec (10%), and British Columbia (8%).

Quebec residents (49%) are most likely to rate their personal debt situation as good, followed by residents British Columbia (45%), Ontario (38%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (34%), Alberta (33%) and Atlantic Canada (28%).

 

Homebuilder stocks fell after Bank of America Merrill Lynch cut its recommendation to neutral from buy on three of the biggest companies — Toll Brothers, PulteGroup and NVR — and RBC offered fresh skepticism about growth and affordability. Toll Brothers is paring a decline of as much as 3.1 percent in early trading; PulteGroup is off by 2.5 percent, and NVR, which also reported disappointing third-quarter results, is down as much as 7.8 percent to the lowest intraday since April 2017.

BofA Merrill Lynch’s stock downgrades come as its U.S. economics team lowered forecasts for 2018-2019 housing starts and new home sales, analyst John Lovallo writes in a note. Lovallo says his call on NVR isn’t based on third-quarter results, but is instead due to likely below-peer order growth in 2019; he cuts Toll Brothers as the high-end of the market is moderating, and downgrades PulteGroup as it may try to drive gross margin by “pushing price over pace.”

Lovallo adds that builders focused on affordable homes for entry-level and first time homes may yet offer value, and notes public homebuilder order growth usually outpaces the broader market.

Separately, RBC’s Mike Dahl cuts his order growth forecasts and price targets after an analysis suggests “affordability is more stretched in areas that matter most to builders, even extending beyond the commonly-cited coastal markets.” That may keep dampening growth rates in coming quarters. PulteGroup and DR Horton may have less exposure to the most stretched markets, while KB Home and TRI Pointe Group are most exposed.

Thursday’s fresh negativity follows Zelman advising the market to “buckle up for a rocky builder earnings season”; Credit Suisse downgrading three stocks; and BTIG cutting earnings estimates and price targets, while warning of a continued slowdown in housing demand. That helped keep the S&P Supercomposite Homebuilding Index near its lowest levels since May 2017.

Jefferies is offering a rare bit of housing optimism, as analysts led by Steven DeSanctis write that 2018 headwinds probably won’t get worse in 2019, while demographic factors are set to improve. Post-tax overhaul price adjustments will be in place, while millennials will continue to age, spurring household formation. Jefferies flags opportunities in multifamily REITs, companies providing affordable housing and vendors selling into that market, and repair and remodel stocks like Home Depot and Lowe’s.

The Mississauga Real Estate Board (MREB) and real estate portal Real Estate Wire (REW) recently announced their partnership to provide wider home options for customers and to increase agents’ prominence, especially in the home buying and selling process.

As part of the agreement, MREB members will have an access to REW’s growing portfolio of active home buyers and sellers, as well as its dynamic marketing solutions.

In addition, home buyers and sellers looking for properties in Mississauga will have more intuitive search options that will make decisions easier.

Apart from industry insights on Ontario and British Columbia, REW’s website allows customers to look for properties according to city, neighborhood, address, building, square footage, or school district, among others.

For mortgage holders and those who are planning to apply for one, REW also offers mortgage calculators and recommendations of experienced agents.

Commenting on the partnership, MREB Executive Director Ray Dubash highlighted that they are after the comfort of the consumers and the prosperity of the home industry.

“At MREB, we’re continually looking to understand and adopt new technologies that can help improve the home buying and selling process,” he said.

“The partnership with Real Estate Wire allows us to better serve our members, licenced agents, who are always looking for options to get more exposure for their clients.”

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada said that home markets may have started to stabilize after a flimsy start to 2018.

In its latest House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast, Royal LePage reported that lower housing costs observed in the third quarter could be attributed to a general guardedness among the Edmonton market’s would-be buyers.

“It’s a buyer’s market as economic uncertainty in Alberta and the new mortgage rules have eliminated some of the competition. Buyers have a lot of choice, and they are taking their time to find the right property,” Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate broker and owner Tom Shearer explained.

Lower employment numbers in the oil and petrochemical industries are also biting into the public’s purchasing power and keeping wary individuals from dipping into the market.

However, Shearer went on to say that “sales activity has remained healthy in Edmonton, despite high inventory and declining prices.”

The average sale price of an Edmonton home moved down by a modest 0.9% year-over-year in Q3 2018, reaching $380,295.

By housing type, condos declined by 0.6% to $234,017, while two-storey homes had a more noticeable 1.9% drop to $432,789. Only bungalows benefited from median price increase, growing by 0.9% during the same time frame to reach to $379,782.

In Royal LePage’s forecast, the aggregate price of an Edmonton residential purchase will go up by 1.1% quarter-over-quarter by the end of December, reaching $384,486.

Get Digs™ is a digital service designed to improve the way renters and landlords pay and receive rent payments. Renters can pay their rent by the method of their choosing: credit card, VISA Debit, Debit Mastercard, Interac e-Transfer, or cheque, and can set up alerts to make sure they never make a late payment. Landlords get the assurance that they will receive their rental income on time every month from Get Digs, even if their tenant is late with their payment for whatever reason.

It was only launched in May 2018, but Get Digs is already making waves among Canadian landlords that have signed up.

For landlords, Get Digs has a feature called RentSteady, which ensures they get paid on time even if the tenant is late paying their rent*,” says Rachael Carswell, Co-Founder at Get Digs. “It helps remove the negative impact on cash flow associated with late rental payments and gives the landlord a security and peace of mind that has been missing for so long.”

The landlord receives an e-mail notifying them that the tenant is late paying the month’s rent, and the RentSteady service means the landlord still gets paid. Get Digs handles all of the follow up associated with late payments and continues to send weekly notifications to update the landlord of the renter’s payment status.

“We continue to follow up with the Renter to attempt to recover the rent owed and get them back on track with their payments” says Carswell. “If the renter defaults, the landlord will continue to be paid on the first of the month – for up to four months of consecutive non-payment”.

“There are other products in the market that attempt to protect landlords   in the event of non-payment of rent by their tenant, but our belief is that they simply aren’t effective enough. They add more tasks and processes on top of what the landlord is already going through and they do not solve the main issue of being out of pocket for the rent owed. It’s clearly a win-win for both landlords and renters, and with the backing of RBC Ventures, Get Digs has the tools necessary to ensure it has a long-term impact in the Canadian market.

“Get Digs is a part of RBC Ventures, a subsidiary of RBC, which is focused on going beyond banking to create meaningful solutions that touch every Canadian,” says Rachael Carswell, Co-Founder and Product lead at Get Digs. “We want to offer Canadians services and products that make their lives better, and this is what RBC Ventures is set up to do.”

As well as providing financial backing and industry know-how, just having the RBC name attached to the Get Digs project provides some crucial benefits. It provides a legitimacy and peace of mind that other products may struggle to replicate. The RBC brand represents trust and stability, two attributes that are crucial for Canadian landlords.

Price growth across the Kitchener/Waterloo/Cambridge region showed sustained robustness in  Q3 2018, according to the Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast released earlier this week.

Royal LePage Grand Valley Realty broker and owner Keith Church said that the volume of migrants from the Greater Toronto Area has recently decreased. This in turn made multiple offers less frequent.

“The market has returned to stability after a bout of rapid price appreciation in 2017 and a levelling-off this spring,” Church explained. “With a strong economy and low unemployment in the area, we expect sales activity to gain momentum this fall.”

The aggregate price of a residential property in the three markets together rose by 6.0% year-over-year in the third quarter, up to $508,391.

Condos pushed much of this growth, with the median price of this housing type increasing by 7.8% during that time frame, up to $302,184.

Meanwhile, the region’s two-storey homes posted a 6.5% annual growth, up to $541,134. Bungalows increased by 3.5% to reach $458,370.

The British Columbia government introduced a speculation and vacancy tax this week, sparking fears that it will stymie investment in the province.

The would impose a tax of either 0.5%, 1% or 2%, depending on the assessed value of a vacant property in the 2019 taxation year and onwards. For the 2018 tax year, the all properties subject to the tax will be 0.5%.

“In a nutshell, it’s not going to achieve what the government is trying to achieve,” said David Peerless, David Peerless, president of Dexter Associates Realty. “I think if you’re a property owner in British Columbia or Canada, it has quite a few flaws that target people who work hard for the right to buy a bit of property, but secondly, it seems to target people outside of the province in a more punitive fashion for investing in British Columbia. That’s a real problem for people who own and invest in British Columbia because it puts a damper on anybody wanting to invest in a second property in B.C.”

The tax doesn’t apply to the entire province, either. Only select areas, namely Vancouver, will be subject to the tax, which confounds Michael La Prairie, president of Century 21 In Town Realty.

“People have the right to invest their money, but why is the government dictating what you can and can’t do with your properties?” said the Vancouver-based La Prarie. “Why is Whistler exempt? The politics just suck in this province now. They’re taxing everybody on everything and they’re making people not want to invest in this province.”

The inconsistency in the way in which the tax is applied throughout B.C. will dissuade investors from spending money in the province, fears Peerless.

“The problem with that kind of inconsistency of taxation is it will also send a message to anybody wanting to buy real estate in the province that there’s not a consistently applied tax province-wide and that will damper the interest that other Canadians and other investors have in buying B.C. real estate.”

The tax has also resulted in confusion over and Peerless has noticed people offloading properties before taxes are due.

“We’re seeing some people choosing to sell before the tax is defined,” he continued. “They may not have to sell, but uncertainty causes a great deal of stress and we’re looking at people who are going to sell at a loss because of that uncertainty.”

Quicken Loans, the largest home mortgage lender in the US, is to open a new office in Canada.

The firm including its ‘Family of Companies’ is leasing more than 9,000 square feet of office space in the Old Fish Market Building in Windsor, ON, and intends to employ around 100.

While it does not currently offer mortgages in Canada, it has stated previously that it wants to understand more about the Canadian mortgage market.

A firm owned by Quicken’s parent firm Rock Holdings Inc., Rocket Homes, entered the Canadian real estate market in 2016 when it acquired Toronto property tech firm OpenHouse Realty.

“We learned a lot more about Ontario’s deep technology talent pool over the past couple of years as we explored pitching the international border of Windsor/Detroit to various companies,” said Jay Farner, CEO of Quicken Loans. “As Quicken Loans continues to grow and set the standard for innovation, we remain focused on recruiting additional technology talent to our brainforce. With our headquarters located in downtown Detroit, we have a tremendous opportunity to tap into the rich technology pipeline both stateside and in Canada.”

Welcomed by the mayor
The company closed more than $400 billion of mortgage volume across all 50 states from 2013 through 2017 and has been top 30 in Fortune Magazine’s top companies to work for over the past 15 years.

Windsor Mayor, Drew Dilkens, has welcomed Quicken’s decision to open an office in the city.

“The relationship we developed recently with them as we jointly pursued various technology companies to our international border cities helped us share the strong value proposition of Windsor,” he said . “Quicken Loans is an amazing company with a great work culture. We look forward to working closely with them in the months and years ahead as they grow their presence in our city.”

What is the income gap between the salary required to purchase an average home and actual household incomes across major Ontario cities?
Using August 2018 average home prices from the Toronto Real Estate Board and other local Ontario real estate boards, and assuming a 20% down payment, Zoocasa calculated the minimum household income required to buy an average home in each region.
Here are the Ontario cities ranked by the biggest to smallest income gaps for home affordability.

 

Canada’s economy is in for a few years of reduced growth according to a new report from Deloitte.

The outlook shows a slump in economic growth from 3% in 2017 to 2% this year and to 1.4% by 2020.

It cites high household debt, rising interest rates, flat real estate markets, and weaker employment growth, for a predicted slowdown in consumer spending.

There is also the impact of external factors including a slower global economy, US protectionism, and tighter monetary policy in North America and Europe.

“The signs that the North American economy is in the late stages of a business cycle are all around us, from a record long bull market in US equities to low unemployment rates and rising central bank rates,” says Deloitte Canada’s Chief Economist, Craig Alexander. “The negotiation of USMCA reduces the downside risks to the Canadian economy, and economic growth should persist. However, businesses should still prepare for more moderate domestic demand growth and a weaker US economy over the medium term.”

The global economy is expected to deliver strong growth of close to 4% in 2018, but the pace of expansion will drop to 3.2% in 2020.

Ontario’s premier needs to push ahead with the assistance promised to the province’s potential home buyers.

The Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA), Ontario Home Builders Association (OHBA) and the Federation of Rental-Housing Providers of Ontario (FRPO) met this week to discuss housing policy and are calling on the Ford government to implement solutions to increase housing supply and assist first-time buyers.

“Keeping the dream of home ownership alive in Ontario requires bold policies and action from the provincial government,” said Tim Hudak, Chief Executive Officer, OREA. “First and foremost, to get more new homes in the marketplace, the building approvals process must be streamlined and zoning updated to allow for more homes in the right places. The best and fastest way to give Ontario’s first-time home buyers a break is to eliminate the punishing land transfer tax for first-time buyers.”

Along with increased supply and less red tape, the organizations are calling for the government to eliminate the land transfer tax for first-time home buyers or dramatically increase the current rebate offered to first-time buyers.

They also want a return of the Ontario Municipal Board which they say has traditionally taken the NIMBY out of housing decisions. They say bringing back the OMB will mean evidence-based planning decisions, which will create more housing supply and choice.

Home sales in British Columbia remain weak following the past few years of growth.

Across the province there was a 33.2% decrease in sales in September compared to a year earlier with a total of 5,573 units according to the latest data from the British Columbia Real Estate Association.

“BC home sales continue at a slower pace compared to last year,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “The impact on affordability and purchasing power caused by the mortgage stress test and moderately higher interest rates are negating the effect of the extraordinarily strong performance of BC’s economy over the last five years.”

The weaker sales impacted prices with the average selling price falling 1.1% to $685,749. Total dollar volume of sales was $3.8 billion, down 34% year-over-year.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 21.3% to $45 billion, compared with the same period in 2017. Residential unit sales decreased 22.5% to 63,251 units, while the average MLS residential price was up 1.5% to $716,096.