August may have been quiet but 2017 so far has been a strong year for new home sales in the GTA, especially for the high-rise sector.

A report from the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) shows that 31,749 homes have been sold in the 8 months to the end of August, 28% above the 10-year average for the period and above sales for the same period of 2016.

Data from the Altus Group reveals that August sales were down 69% year-over-year to just 795 new homes with multifamily units and condos in high rise buildings dominating with 681 sales. Just 114 were low-rise single-family homes.

“The longer-term decline in single-family’s share of new home sales has now kicked into hyperdrive –  dropping from about one-half in 2015, to one-third last year, to less than one-sixth in recent months,” said Patricia Arsenault, Altus Group’s Executive Vice President of Research Consulting Services. “While underlying demand suggests the pendulum should start to swing back a bit towards the single-family side, in reality it will be stopped in its tracks unless there is a significant increase in new single-family product making it to the market.”

Supply issues continue to restrict sales of new homes in the GTA, although there was a slight improvement with 6,608 multi-family homes and 1,880 single-family low-rise homes available in builders’ inventories at the end of August.

There was also a slight decrease in prices although average prices in both high and low-rise sectors remain more than a third higher than a year ago.

The average price for available new single-family low-rise homes was $1,289,298, down from July’s $1,316,693 and the average price of available multi-family homes in the GTA in August was $644,327, down from July’s average of $665,041.

BILD president and CEO Bryan Tuckey is expecting an improvement in sales for September.

“Late summer is a quiet time for real estate, and most builders wait until September to launch developments and bring new product to market,” said Tuckey. “We are expecting fall to be very busy, and 2017 could still be a record year of new home sales driven by the incredibly strong condo market.”

The Ontario government has addressed the province’s housing supply issue by vowing to unlock provincial land for the use of housing.

Toronto Mayor John Tory and Peter Milczyn, Minister of Housing and Minister Responsible for the Poverty Reduction Strategy, made the announcement in Toronto Wednesday morning.

The plan is to allow for the creation of 2,000 new affordable housing units in Toronto as part of the province’s Fair Housing Plan.

“Our communities are at their strongest when they make room for everyone,” Milczyn said. “By freeing up underused land to build a mix of market and affordable rental housing, more people in Ontario will be able to find an affordable home in neighbourhoods they love.”

The province has earmarked three sites for building; two lots in West Don Lands and one, which is currently a multi-level parking structure, in the downtown core between Bay and Yonge Streets south of Wellesley.

“This is a unique and innovative strategy to transform surplus provincial lands into much-needed rental housing units for individuals and families, a key part of our Fair Housing Plan,” Bob Chiarelli, minister of infrastructure, said.

This new program is one of 16 measures announced by the Ontario government earlier this year to address affordable housing in the province.

“The province is leveraging the value of this land to develop new rental and affordable housing units for individuals and families in Toronto,” the Ministry of Housing said in a release. “This will pave the way for strong neighbourhoods that will feature both market and affordable rental housing, including much-needed family-sized units, with up to 30 per cent of the units earmarked for affordable housing.”

Since the end of April, we have heard many reports on how the [Toronto-Condo-Market-May-2017-New-Legislature-Effect-Toronto-Condo-Market-]Ontario Fair Housing Plan has changed the face of Toronto’s real estate market. We have heard diverse reports ranging from dire as the market has stalled and prices have dropped dramatically, to reports that there has been little impact on the Toronto market other than fewer sales.
I am going to dedicate myself to assist you in sorting out what effect the new legislature has had on the industry. I will not just give you blanket statements like we are hearing from Toronto’s media but focus on each downtown and midtown Toronto condo neighbourhoods so you may be able to see the changes based on the actual sales that have occurred in each area.
The first neighbourhood I will attack is [4a_custpage_109146.html]Yorkville in Downtown, Toronto around the Yonge, Avenue Road and Bloor area. This neighbourhood tends to has higher-end buildings and has been the most expensive condo area in Toronto.
I will breakdown by month beginning with March 21 – April 20 (the month prior to the changes) and moving through the 1st three months of the changes, as well as comparing with the year prior. We will explore the effects in both sales and prices and compare each category so you may see the real picture for this neighbourhood.
If you find this information useful, look for Bay Street Corridor Report next week. In the next few weeks, I will cover all of the downtown areas to give you true numbers for those looking to buy and sell. I think it is critical for all those who are interested in Toronto real estate, including real estate agents and brokers, to understand the changes and how it has affected the market. In fact, I am working towards reporting all this information by building because we are already seeing changes that are unique to each condo building.
It has been very interesting to look at the Yorkville, Annex, Toronto numbers. There has definitely been a decline in the number of sales over this period of time. In 2016 we saw the number of sales in the mid 30’s each month and this was the case prior to the change. However, from May 21st to June 20th there were 24 condo sales in the Annex, from June 21st to July 20th there were 19 sales and July 21st to August 20th there were 28 sales. What I find interesting is that the sales prices have actually increased on average.
The average sales price from March 21st through April 20th (prior to the rule change) was $1,174,126. The first month after the changes (April 21st to May 20th) we saw an increase of 7%, to $1,260,720. The second month (May 21st to June 20th) we saw a decrease in sales price to $1,055,403 but the market rebounded quickly in the 3rd month (June 21st to July 20th) to $2,091,889, an increase of 76%. The month showed a significantly higher increase, but it must be taken into consideration that there were 3 very expensive sales.
July 21st through August 20th saw the average sales price drop back, to $1,058,604, which I consider closer to the norm.  However, it is still up by more than 10% over the same period in 2016.
Prior to the change on April 21st, the price per square foot was $959.02 and we have seen this rise to as much as $1,038. In July-August we saw this figure remain strong at $1,019 per square foot. This is still a 6% increase over the March/April numbers.
Yorkville has remained a very strong market even after the changes. The numbers that truly supports the strength of the market is the average price per square foot and fewer listings. You can have a few high end deals that boost your sales price numbers but the price per square foot will always remain relevant. Over the past 5 months we have seen a rise in this number by as much as 8%.
For those who have been reluctant to sell their Yorkville condo due to what is being reported in the media, now is a great time to sell a Yorkville condos… it is still a strong sellers market!

 
July 21 – August 20, 2017
 
June 21 – July 20, 2017
 
May 21 – June 20 2017
 
Apr. 21 – May 20, 2017
 
Mar 21 – Apr. 20 2017
# of Sales
28
 
        19        
 
24
 
35 
 
 38
Ave. Listing Price 
$1,066,292
 
 $2,256,294
 
$1,055,403
 
 $1,260,720
 
 $1,174,126
Ave. Sales Price 
$1,058,604 (-11%)   since change
 
$2,091,889 (+25%)  since change 
 
$1,058,571 (-11%)   since change
 
 $1,254,492
 
 $1,188,827
Aprox Ave $ per sq. ft.
$1,019.10 (+6%) since change
 
$1,039.94 (+8%) since change
 
$928.11 (-3%) since change
 
 $993.48
 
 $959.02
% of Sold to Listing Price
99%
 
93% 
 
103 %
 
 99%
 
 101%
 
July 21 – August 20, 2016
 
 June 21 – July 20, 2016
 
May 21 – June 20 2016 
 
 Apr. 21 – May 20, 2016
 
 Mar 21 – Apr. 20 2016
# of Sales
 24
 
32
 
33
 
31
 
39
Ave. Listing Price 
 $980,762
 
$916,284
 
$921,586
 
$856,516
 
$793,387
Ave. Sales Price 
 $959,661 
 
$891,469
 
$894,784
 
$840,425
 
$789,891
Aprox Ave $ per sq. ft.
$817.07 
 
$736.02
 
$742.67
 
$600.76
 
$717.34
% of Sold to Listing Price
98% 
 
 97%
 
97%
 
98%
 
106%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
July 21 – Aug. 20 2017
 
 
 
 
# of Suites 
 
Ave Sales Price 
 
Aprox. Price per Square foot 
Studios / Bachs
 
 
 
 
1
 
$399,999
 
$690.84
1 Bedrooms
 
 
 
 
9
 
$596,889
 
$954.41
1 Bdrm + Den
 
 
 
 
6
 
$689,483
 
$960.61 
2 Bedrooms
 
 
 
 
6
 
$762,833
 
$913.12 
2 Bdrm + Den
 
 
 
 
4
 
$2,898,750
 
$1,547.16 
3 Bedrooms
 
 
 
 
2
 
$1,780,000
 
$911.64 
3 + 1 Bdrm
 
 
 
 
 
 
 –
4 Bedroom
 
 
 
 
 
 
 – 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
June 21 – July 20 2017
 
 
 
 
# of Suites 
 
Ave Sales Price 
 
Aprox. Price per Square foot 
Studios / Bachs
 
 
 
 
 
– 
 
– 
1 Bedrooms
 
 
 
 
5
 
$563,980 
 
$906.67 
1 Bdrm + Den
 
 
 
 
 
$580,000 
 
$956.67 
2 Bedrooms
 
 
 
 
 
$843,667 
 
$772.23 
2 Bdrm + Den
 
 
 
 
 
 $3,177,500
 
 $1,403.70 
3 Bedrooms
 
 
 
 
 
$2,948,333 
 
 $1,101.71
3 + 1 Bdrm
 
 
 
 
 
– 
 
– 
4 Bedroom
 
 
 
 
 
$8,437,500 
 
$2,969.56 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
May 21 – June 20 2017
 
 
 
 
# of Suites
 
Ave Sales Price
 
Aprox. Price per Square foot
Studios / Bachs
 
 
 
 
0
 
 
1 Bedrooms
 
 
 
 
9
 
$761,296
 
$997.19
1 Bdrm + Den
 
 
 
 
7
 
$689,514
 
$834.14
2 Bedrooms
 
 
 
 
12 
 
$1,247,500 
 
 $986.56
2 Bdrm + Den
 
 
 
 
 6
 
 $1,616,666
 
$1,120.87 
3 Bedrooms
 
 
 
 
 3
 
 $1,541,166
 
$1,196.87 
3 + 1 Bdrm
 
 
 
 
 0
 
– 
 
 –

Ontario’s Fair Housing Plan introduces a comprehensive package of measures to help more people find affordable homes, increase supply, protect buyers and renters and bring stability to the real estate market. The plan includes:

Actions to Address Demand for Housing:

Introducing legislation that would, if passed, implement a new 15-per-cent Non-Resident Speculation Tax (NRST) on the price of homes in the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) purchased by individuals who are not citizens or permanent residents of Canada or by foreign corporations. Ontario’s economy benefits enormously from newcomers who decide to make the province home. The NRST would help to address unsustainable demand in this region and make housing more available and affordable, while ensuring Ontario continues to be a place that welcomes all new residents. The proposed tax would apply to transfers of land that contain at least one and not more than six single family residences. “Single family residences” include, for example, detached and semi-detached homes, townhomes and condominiums. The NRST would not apply to transfers of other types of land including multi-residential rental apartment buildings, agricultural land or commercial/industrial land. The NRST would be effective as of April 21, 2017, upon the enactment of the amending legislation.

Refugees and nominees under the Ontario Immigrant Nominee Program would not be subject to the NRST. Subject to eligibility requirements, a rebate would be available for those who subsequently attain citizenship or permanent resident status as a well as foreign nationals working in Ontario and international students. See technical bulletin for further information.

Actions to Protect Renters

Expanding rent control to all private rental units in Ontario, including those built after 1991. This will ensure increases in rental costs can only rise at the rate posted in the annual provincial rent increase guideline. Over the past ten years, the annual rent increase guideline has averaged two per cent. The increase is capped at a maximum of 2.5 per cent. Under these changes, landlords would still be able to apply vacancy decontrol and seek above guideline increases where permitted. Legislation will be introduced that, if passed, will enact this change effective April 20.‎
The government will introduce legislation that would, if passed, strengthen the Residential Tenancies Act to further protect tenants and ensure predictability for landlords. This will include developing a standard lease with explanatory information available in multiple languages, tightening provisions for “landlord’s own use” evictions, and ensuring that tenants are adequately compensated if asked to vacate under this rule; prohibiting above-guideline increases where elevator work orders have not been completed; and making technical changes at the Landlord-Tenant Board to make the process fairer and easier for renters and landlords. These changes would apply to the entire province.

Actions to Increase Housing Supply

Establishing a program to leverage the value of surplus provincial land assets across the province to develop a mix of market housing and new, permanent, sustainable and affordable housing supply. Potential sites under consideration for a pilot project include the West Don Lands, 27 Grosvenor/26 Grenville Streets in Toronto, and other sites in the province. This builds on an agreement reached previously with the City of Toronto to ensure a minimum of 20 per cent of residential units within the West Don Lands are available for affordable rental, with an additional 5 per cent of units for affordable ownership.
Introducing legislation that would, if passed, empower the City of Toronto, and potentially other interested municipalities, to introduce a vacant homes property tax to encourage property owners to sell unoccupied units or rent them out, to address concerns about residential units potentially being left vacant by speculators.
Ensuring that property tax for new multi-residential apartment buildings is charged at a similar rate as other residential properties. This will encourage developers to build more new purpose-built rental housing and will apply to the entire province.
Introducing a targeted $125-million, five-year program to further encourage the construction of new rental apartment buildings by rebating a portion of development charges. Working with municipalities, the government would target projects in those communities that are most in need of new purpose-built rental housing.
Providing municipalities with the flexibility to use property tax tools to help unlock development opportunities. For example, municipalities could be permitted to impose a higher tax on vacant land that has been approved for new housing.
Creating a new Housing Supply Team with dedicated provincial employees to identify barriers to specific housing development projects and work with developers and municipalities to find solutions. As well, a multi-ministry working group will be established to work with the development industry and municipalities to identify opportunities to streamline the development approvals process.

Other Actions to Protect Homebuyers and Increase Information Sharing

The province will work to understand and tackle practices that may be contributing to tax avoidance and excessive speculation in the housing market such as “paper flipping,” a practice that includes entering into a contractual agreement to buy a residential unit and assigning it to another person prior to closing.
Working with the real estate profession and consumers, the province is committing to review the rules real estate agents are required to follow to ensure that consumers are fairly represented in real estate transactions. This includes practices such as double ending. The government will modernize its rules, strengthen professionalism and improve the home-buying experience with a goal to make Ontario a leader in real estate standards.
Establishing a housing advisory group which will meet quarterly to provide the government with ongoing advice about the state of the housing market and discuss the impact of the measures in the Fair Housing Plan and any additional steps that are needed. The group will have a diverse range of expertise, including economists, academics, developers, community groups and the real estate sector.
Educating consumers on their rights, particularly on the issue of one real estate professional representing more than one party in a real estate transaction.
Partnering with the Canada Revenue Agency to explore more comprehensive reporting requirements so that correct federal and provincial taxes, including income and sales taxes, are paid on purchases and sales of real estate in Ontario.
Making elevators in Ontario buildings more reliable by establishing timelines for elevator repair in consultation with the sector and the Technical Standards & Safety Authority (TSSA).
Working with municipalities to better reflect the needs of a growing Greater Golden Horseshoe through an updated Growth Plan. New provisions will include requiring that municipalities consider the appropriate range of unit sizes in higher density residential buildings to accommodate a diverse range of household sizes and incomes. This will help support the goals of creating complete communities that are vibrant, transit-supportive and economically competitive, while doing more to address climate change, protect the region’s natural heritage and prevent the loss of irreplaceable farmland. As part of the implementation of the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006, enough land was set aside in municipal official plans to accommodate forecasted growth to at least 2031. Based on discussions with municipalities across the region, the government is confident that there is enough serviced land to meet the Provincial Policy Statement requirement for a three year supply of residential units. The Greenbelt provides important protection of natural heritage and farmland, and neither the area of the Greenbelt or the rules about what can occur inside of it will be weakened. The upcoming Growth Plan will promote intensification around existing and planned transit stations and will promote higher densities in the suburbs to support transit.

See map “Greater Golden Horseshoe”.

Actions to Date

The government has taken a number of actions over recent months and years in order to support homebuyers, increase supply of affordable and rental housing and promote fairness. These include:

Helping more people purchase their first home by doubling the maximum Land Transfer Tax refund for eligible first-time homebuyers to $4,000. This means eligible homebuyers in Ontario pay no Land Transfer Tax on the first $368,000 of the cost of their first home.
Modernizing the Land Transfer Tax to reflect the current real estate market, including increasing rates on one or two single-family residence over $2 million. Revenue generated from the increased rates is being used to fund the enhancements to the First-Time Homebuyers Refund.
Making it easier for not-for-profit affordable housing providers to buy surplus government lands.
Introducing an inclusionary zoning framework for municipalities that will enable affordable housing units as part of residential developments.
Amending the Planning Act and the Development Charges Act to support second units, allowing homeowners to create rental units in their primary residence and creating additional supply.
Freezing the municipal property tax burden for multi-residential apartment buildings in communities where these taxes are high.
Collecting information about Ontario’s real estate market to support evidence-based policy development

Appendix: Data and Trends on the Real Estate Market

Ontario’s housing market has seen very dynamic growth in recent years, with prices in the Greater Toronto Area and the Greater Golden Horseshoe rising significantly. This has been supported by economic fundamentals, including a growing population, rising employment, higher incomes and very low borrowing costs.

House prices have been rising at a robust pace in the Greater Toronto Area since the end of the 2008-09 recession.

After two consecutive years of double-digit gains, average house prices in the Toronto region reached $916,567 in March 2017, up 33.2 per cent from a year earlier.

See image “Toronto Home Resale Prices”

The Greater Toronto Area showed the sharpest rise in home prices in Ontario over the past two years.

While the growth rate of prices of homes in the Greater Vancouver Area have been slowing since August 2016 after the introduction of B.C.’s foreign-buyers tax, home prices have been climbing steadily in the Greater Toronto Area.

See image “MLS Home Price Index”, “Greater Toronto Area Price Increases Outstrip Other Cities” and “Housing supply in Ontario seems to be aligning with demographics”.

According to Urbanation, the average rent per square foot for new leases in the Greater Toronto Area condo market rose 11 per cent in the last quarter of 2016 compared to a year earlier, the fastest pace of growth since at least 2011.

See image “% change, year-over-year, GTA”.

The number of owners with more than one residential property has been rising steadily since 2000.

See image “Number of Owners With More Than One Residential Property in the GTHA: 2000-16”.

There were 1,752 total new home sales in July 2017, with 137 Low Rise sales, down -85% from July 2016 (down -86% from 10yr avg) and 1,615 High Rise sales, down -34% from July 2016 (up +4% from 10yr avg).

The New Home Benchmark Price tracks the average Low and High Rise home or unit price in the Greater Toronto Area for a particular month and compares it to the previous month in the same year and to the same month in the previous year.

As of July 2017, there were 117 active Low Rise sites in the Greater Toronto Area and the total unsold inventory was 1,713 lots. The total number of active High Rise sites was 246, with a total unsold inventory of 6,088 units.

Source : Altus