New Condo Pricing in the Central Downtown Core is up 10% Annually

Bullpen Research & Consulting works with big data from Buzzbuzzhome (BBH), America’s largest online marketplace for new construction homes, and monitors the average price of “popular” floorplans based on the thousands of monthly data points and pageviews. The chart above looks at the average price for the central downtown core based on the popular unit data over the past three and a half years (the coverage area is generally south of College Street between Strachan Avenue and the DVP – postal codes M5A, M5B, M5C, M5E, M5G, M5H, M5J, M5K, M5V, M5T).

In August of 2021, the average price of new condominium floorplans on BBH in the downtown core was $1,431 psf, an increase of 10% annually compared to August of last year.

During the pandemic, pricing had declined by nearly $95 psf from $1,398 psf in late 2019 to $1,305 psf in June/July of last year. A lack of launches, especially luxury launches, and a slow sell off of smaller units with higher per-square-foot pricing was the likely reason, as opposed to developers actually lowering prices. There were a few “less aggressively” priced launches last year during the second wave.

The chart below looks at a sample of suites offered in 2021 by rounded unit size at five of the most prominent launches this year (suites above 1,049 sf were eliminated). The average price for these suites is $1,420 psf on average, with enormous pricing for the suites rounded to 300 sf and 400 sf ($1,632 psf and $1,582 psf, respectively).

The GTA suburban new condo prices have been booming – as we mentioned in a recent newsletter – and there are worries around downtown prices rising too quickly as well. A good measure of whether new condo pricing is too high is to compare those prices to a ‘newer’ resale project to see how much higher they are. In the past, 15% to 20% has been a “reasonable” gap or new price premium. A look at a few examples below using recent resale trades via Condos.ca.

1. Natasha Condos, ~500 sf = $1,545 psf. Peter Street Condos, recent 506 sf unit sold for $1,206 psf. Price gap of 28%.

2. Prime Condos, ~500 sf = $1,474 psf. Stanley Condos, recent 502 sf unit sold for $1,273 psf. Price gap of 16%.

3. Goode Condos, ~500 sf = $1,443 psf. Clear Spirit, recent 538 sf unit sold for $1,301 psf. Price gap of 11%.

4. 400 King Condos, ~500 sf = $1,362 psf. King Charlotte, recent 495 sf unit sold for $1,202 psf. Price gap of 13%.

5. The Whitfield, ~600 sf = $1,470 psf. Sixty Colborne, recent 585 sf unit sold for $1,060 psf. Price gap of 39%.

As a reminder, the pricing in the chart below is NOT a comprehensive look at all suites in the project, but based on a sample of available product only.