MARKET SUMMARY

With the first two months of 2019 behind us, there was no shortage of events fueling political and economic uncertainty in Canadian markets. From Jody Wilson-Raybould’s recent response to allegations that she was pressured by the Prime Minister’s Office to intervene in criminal proceeding against SNC-Lavalin to the ongoing extradition case of Huawei’s CFO, all could pose major ramifications for the Canadian economy in terms of trade, employment and growth. Even with these potential challenges facing the federal government, there were some signs of progress. Firstly, Canadian financial markets surged as the S&P/TSX Composite Index rebounded by 11.7% over the past two months after plummeting by 5.8% in December alone. Moreover, the implementation of oil production cuts in Alberta has had a positive impact on oil prices, as the price differential between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Western Canadian Select (WCS) has narrowed to approximately $12.50/barrel. The surge in value of WCS since December to $44.25/barrel has also supported the appreciation of the Canadian dollar to $0.76 USD. Even with the recent increase in oil prices, the Bank of Canada will likely hold off on raising interest rates until the fall of 2019 due to slowing economic growth (both within Canada and globally), easing inflation, weak recent data on retail sales and the tumble that the housing market has taken due to the new mortgage rules and higher interest rates.

The latest GDP data for Canada, which was released on March 1st, shows that the Canadian economy only grew by 0.4% annualized in Q4 2018, reflecting the toll that weak oil pricing, the slow housing market and weak business investment is taking on the economy. Economic growth in Canada is predicted to decline from a lower than expected 1.8% in 2018 to a forecasted 1.5% in 2019. Ontario is expected to only slightly outperform Canada as a whole, with 2019 GDP growth forecasted to come in at 1.6%.

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) on the other hand is one of only a few markets across Canada that are expected to see GDP growth increase in 2019, up 10 basis points from 2018 to 2.4%, however, this is based on the assumption that consumer spending and housing sales will pick up. On the residential housing front, GTA home sales in 2018 were down 16.1% from 2017, and the average selling price for all property types was down by 4.3%. Although sales and prices picked up slightly in January, they remain weak, with many now calling on Ottawa to review the mortgage stress testing rules, as it is having a deeper impact on the housing market than anticipated and still making housing unaffordable for new home buyers. A weak housing market always impacts consumer confidence, and with five interest rate hikes over the past 18 months, mortgage and lending rates are finally catching up to households. This combined with a 2.3% increase in the CPI Index for Ontario during 2018 will directly affect consumer spending in 2019. As consumption and residential housing were key contributors to economic growth in Canada, Ontario and the GTA over the past several years, slowing demand in both sectors will shift the focus towards business investment and exports.

Given this economic backdrop, the office, industrial and retail commercial real estate markets in the GTA continue to perform well and remain well within “landlord” market status. The office market vacancy rate has decreased by 90 basis points (bps) year-over-year to end February of 2019 at 5.0%, with the average net asking rental rate up 5.6% over the same period, to $19.51/sq. ft. per annum. With exceptionally strong demand from both finance and tech tenants driving down vacancy and pushing net asking rents up, it is no surprise that landlords and developers are confident about the future performance of the GTA office market. Furthermore, although rental rate growth has begun to slow, growth will remain positive for the foreseeable future. As such, construction activity continues to increase. There is currently almost 10.6 million SF of office space either under construction or expected to break ground imminently in the GTA, representing over 3.9% of existing inventory. These projects amount to approximately 8.4 million SF downtown, and represent 8.9% of the existing downtown inventory. Downtown vacancy remains tight, at 3.4% at the end of February 2019, however, it is up 10 bps year-over-year as limited options. It should be noted that meaningful new supply is now 12 to 18 months away, and those tenants who can hold off until the new supply starts coming online, will do so rather than taking space that may not necessarily meet their needs, resulting in a temporary slowdown absorption activity. Due to limited options downtown, suburban demand continues to pick up, with suburban vacancy down 160 bps year-over-year to 5.9%. With demand remaining strong, and new supply limited in the short term, expect rental rates to continue edging up. Downtown net rents are up approximately 20% year-over-year at $33.42/sq. ft. per annum, however, they are off slightly from $33.44/sq. ft. per annum at year-end 2018. Suburban rents have increased by only 4.3% year-over-year to $18.03/sq. ft. per annum in February 2019 and were up 1.1% since year-end 2018.

The industrial market experienced a 100 bps drop in vacancy year-over year to end February 2019 at an exceptionally low 1.4%, with availability down 100 bps over the same period to 2.3%. As a result of strong demand and limited availability and new supply (only 3.5 million SF in 2018), the average net asking rental rate continues to increase, up almost 13.7% year-over-year, to $7.8219/sq. ft. per annum in February 2019. Low vacancy rates and continued demand from transportation and warehousing users as well as non-traditional users such as film and television production, self storage operators and cannabis grow operations is driving both demand and increased construction activity. Construction activity is now at 10.6 million SF, compared to only 5.6 million SF a year ago, and this activity equates to 1.3% of the current market inventory. As a result of the above, and the fact that there is limited land available for new projects, expect vacancy to remain low and rental rates to continue rising. Rental rate expectations from landlords for new construction projects are increasing even further due to rising construction and land costs, and as a result, both landlords and tenants are going to have to start looking even further out around the periphery of the GTA for suitable options. On the retail front, despite the exit of several retails over the last year, both big and small, and weakening retail sales as a result of rising debt servicing costs for households, Canada, and the GTA specifically, continue to attract retailer expansions and new retailers. As a result, the retail vacancy rate has decreased by 100 bps year-over-year to 2.1% at the end of February 2019, with the average net asking rental rate up by 9.0% year-over-year to $26.12/sq. ft. per annum. The delta between the have’s and have not’s when it comes to retail properties, continues to grow. The landlords that are able to update and renovate their properties in order to attract the best tenants are also attracting the most traffic, whereas the landlords who are not, are being impacted the most.

These insights are made possible through CoStar, the largest commercial real estate source for property listings for sale or lease in Canada. CoStar enables users to gain insight into the approximate 91,258 properties currently tracked in the Greater Toronto Area, which include 2,339 properties for sale and 10,244 spaces for lease.

Source: Costar

According to a poll by the Bank of Montreal, 68 percent of Canadian couples surveyed cited fighting over money as a top reason for divorce, ahead of infidelity. Buying a home together only raises the stakes — bank accounts are merged, couples are collectively preparing for the biggest purchase of their lives and are budgeting together to chip away at a downpayment.

Octavia Ramirez is the founder of Paper & Coin — a financial coaching company that helps Millennials reach their personal finance goals. “Money can be a huge stressor in relationships. So why not get ahead of the problem?” she says.

The finance pro is uniquely qualified to help couples. Since getting married, Ramirez has never once fought about money with her husband. “Obviously, I enjoy finances but it’s taken years of practice to get here,” she tells Livabl.

It all comes down to communication and understanding your partner’s unique worldview — especially when it comes to money. Dr. Katelyn Gomes (Ph.D., C.Psych), a clinical psychologist with CBT Associates, echoes this: “We each have unique personal histories that define our values, rules, dislikes and assumptions for living in and viewing the world — including how we spend money, save money, even what’s important in the home you purchase.”

Octavia Ramirez and Dr. Katelyn Gomes spill their tips for communicating about finances and, in turn, making your partnership even stronger.

1. Work together as a team by joining your accounts
“I often see couples not working together as a team by splitting their expenses. This divides your efforts and can interfere with what you’re trying to accomplish,” Ramirez explains.

When it comes to buying a home, Ramirez makes a case for joining your bank accounts, “When my husband and I get paid, it all goes into the same checking account and we move the money accordingly. We don’t treat it as my money, your money. Consider that both of your incomes together are the grand total.”

When couples put their savings into separate accounts, they also diminish their returns. “Splitting your accounts is a democratic way of doing things, but you won’t get as much bang for your buck that way,” she says.

Ultimately, if you’re in a serious committed relationship, be in a serious committed relationship. “If you divide things based on your separate incomes, it gives the person who makes more a leg-up versus feeling like you’re equally respected in the relationship,” says Ramirez.

Ultimately, you will both be living in the house together. If one person makes considerably less, going 50/50 can potentially lead to selling yourself short — and building resentment long-term.

2. Agree on your collective goals, then make a transparent budget
Ramirez often hears her clients explain that they have budgets — in their head. “It’s important to have a shared document that communicates your budget and spending at a glance.”

Before putting numbers into a Google spreadsheet, agree on your short-term and long-term financial goals with your partner. Working towards homeownership? Start by determining the cost of the house you want to buy, then work backwards to see how much you will need to save each year to make it happen.

“Once you know how much you’ll have to save in the year ahead, go back month-by-month and see what areas of your budget can be cut or if you can increase your income to reach that goal,” explains Ramirez.

Even if it means passing on your yearly vacation and doing a staycation, instead.

3. Have regular budget meetings with your partner
Once you’ve set your budget and are tracking your expenses and spending, set monthly or bi-monthly meetings to stay on track.

“Getting a downpayment together is a huge accomplishment. It’s a long-term process and there are occasionally going to be slip-ups in your savings efforts. It’s important to come back together regularly to remind yourself of your ‘why’. Maybe you didn’t reach your goal one month. Don’t dwell on it for too long, and instead decide together to get back on the saddle,” says Ramirez.

Dr. Katelyn Gomes explains, “We have this tendency to incorporate comments from our partners using faulty or unhelpful interpretations. These are known as cognitive distortion and it includes things like mindreading, jumping to conclusions, catastrophizing or thinking of the worst-case scenario. When we think our partners opinion, wants or needs don’t align with our lens it can lead to difficulties in communication, clashes or arguments.”

When you keep the lines of communication open over your spending habits, it creates an opportunity to have the necessary dialogue to avoid miscommunications or jumping to conclusions.

“Whether it’s contentious or not, just showing up to have that conversation is really important to keep couples on the same page,” explains Ramirez.

4. Save for an emergency fund
To avoid major money stress down the line, Ramirez recommends having an emergency fund in place: “Before you buy a house, prioritize saving three to six months of expenses in advance. If you break up or someone loses a job, you won’t risk going into extreme debt while you figure out your next move.”

5. Stay in the loop, even if you aren’t handling the finances
If you’re the one to handle the finances, Ramirez recommends letting your partner in on exactly what’s going on — whether it’s your insurance policy, the status of the car payments, how much interest you’re paying on the mortgage, or how much credit card debt each person has brought into the relationship.

“Because I enjoy finances, there’s a temptation to not keep my husband in the loop,” says Ramirez. “But even when I handle everything, I always debrief him after. He knows the passwords for the bank accounts and where things go, so he can take over at any point. Having everything on the table encourages you to trust each other.”

Home sales in Canada bounced back this January, leading an economist with one of the nation’s biggest banks to say the performance was “a bit better than expected” before predicting a year of stability for the national market.

The comments appeared in BMO Chief Economist Douglas Porter’s response to the latest monthly sales stats from the Canadian Real Estate Association, which showed existing home sales in January edged up 3.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis.

The response may sound lukewarm, at least in part, but it does come at a time when some of the biggest markets are struggling. Prairie housing continues to reel from the effects of low — albeit recovering — oil prices, Toronto’s market is “soggy”, and Vancouver remains highly vulnerable to possible fallout from overvalued homes.

“While some fret about an overly weak market — notably the Bank of Canada — the national numbers instead suggest that conditions are calm and unremarkable,” Porter continues, noting sales were still down 4 percent annually nonetheless.

Last month, the benchmark price of a home was $613,500, a decline of about 0.5 percent from December but up approximately 0.8 percent compared to a year ago. However, market performance varied greatly from city to city. In Toronto, the benchmark price remained up 2.7 percent from last year at $761,800, while Vancouver prices were down 4.5 percent, settling at $1,019,600.

The Prairies were predictably soft, with prices down annually by 3.9 percent in Calgary and 2.9 percent in Edmonton. The benchmark price of a Calgary home was $410,200 and for an Edmonton home it was $317,200.

Montreal and Ottawa continued to show strength. The benchmark for Montreal was $349,300, representing an annual increase of 6.3 percent. Meantime, Ottawa prices grew by 7.1 percent, finishing the month at $396,300.

Porter predicts that on a national level, prices, home construction and sales will all likely “hold stable” this year for a few reasons: Interest rates are flattening and may even decline this year, demand-side factors like population growth are boosting the market, and even oil prices are picking up.

“While that may lack drama, a lack of drama may be exactly what the doctor ordered for the housing market at this point.”

Spotty credit card payments might not seem like a big deal when you’re first starting out, but that banking boomerang will hit you hard when it comes back around during that first home purchase.

If you have an icky credit history, or outstanding consumer debt, you’re not alone. For every dollar of disposable income, Canadians owe roughly $1.78 to creditors, according to a recent Angus Reid survey. Canadians are notorious for having high levels of consumer debt, with 59 percent of those in debt having the majority of it on their credit card. Financial ignorance or simple credit confusion can often be to blame for the misuse of credit cards.

“There are so many myths out there about credit that really need to be debunked. I hear them all the time when I do workshops,” says Jessica Moorhouse, a financial counselor and award-winning Millennial money blogger, in a statement to Livabl.

While a 2018 Public Policy Forum report found that money management literacy is doing well among younger generations, it’s important to establish healthy credit habits long before homeownership occurs. A credit history riddled with mistakes, or no credit history at all, can be a major impediment to getting pre-approved for a mortgage loan.

“If you don’t have any credit history and you’ve only got a small down payment, you could be declined based on the fact that there is no credit history,” says Laurie Campbell, CEO of Credit Canada Debt Solutions. “They don’t really know how you’re going to manage that debt.”

If you’ve got crummy credit history, don’t panic — you can turn it around. We asked Campbell and Moorhouse for their do’s and don’ts for buyers looking to build a solid credit history in advance of their first home purchase.

DON’T: Spend to infinity on your Affinity
A high credit limit may tempt you into loading up on your card, but you should always exercise restraint.

“Never go over your credit card limit or max it out every month,” says Moorhouse. “Typically, you should only be using 20 to 30 percent of your credit limit. If you tend to spend close to your credit limit every month, consider raising your limit.”

When you become a homeowner, it’s important to keep the same philosophy in mind. If you overspend on a mortgage without considering the additional expenses of sudden repairs, insurance and maintenance, you may find yourself house poor. This vulnerability can make credit cards seem like a viable source of financial relief.

“If you’re house poor, it’s easy to start using credit cards as a crutch because you can’t meet your obligations,” says Campbell.

To leave some financial wiggle room, Campbell recommends growing as high a down payment as possible and to avoid borrowing the maximum mortgage loan you’ll be approved for from lenders.

DO: Pass on extra plastic
If you have multiple credit cards, that means the bank believes you’re a trustworthy borrower, right? Wrong. Instead, you could be sending the wrong message to future lenders.

“Having too many credit cards may signal to creditors that you have a limited capacity and may not be able to afford to pay any new debts back on time,” says Moorhouse. “It may also be too tempting to overspend with too many cards on hand.”

Moorhouse recommends sticking with one to three credit cards. Campbell says just one card can be enough to prove you’re savvy with paying back your balances.

“One good, solid credit card with two or three years of consistent payments — you’re always on time, there’s no late payments — it shows that you are in control, that you’re paying as agreed,” she says.

You may also want to pass on a line of credit unless you really need it. Moorhouse often hears that lines of credit are pushed as a ‘must have’ for financial emergencies, but she sees little benefit in them for improving your credit score.

“A line of credit can serve as a great tool when you need credit and don’t want to pay the high interest rate of a credit card,” she says. “However, it’s not necessary to have even though the banks love to tell you otherwise. I’ve never had a line of credit, I’m a homeowner, I’ve got a high credit score.”

DO: Swallow the pill and pay your bill — all of it
If you think paying off last month’s $60 bar tab charge can wait, think again. Moorhouse and Campbell preach paying off your card, in full, every month. If left unmonitored, payment due dates can easily sneak by unnoticed.

“You might think it’s very innocuous and it doesn’t mean anything, but it absolutely does,” says Campbell. “Make sure you pay it off every single month. Don’t assume that you can miss a payment here or there because your balance is not that big. It doesn’t work that way.”

Doing the opposite and keeping a negative balance— overpaying on your bill or getting a payment credit after you already paid — will not undo the wrongs of missed payments or boost your credit score. Instead, Moorhouse says it can cause further damage. She recommends regularly paying off charges.

“The key things to know is if you’re using credit cards, pay them off in full every month,” she says. “Better yet, pay off your balance every day or after every purchase so you’re never left with a big bill and no idea what happened.”

The unexpectedly weak Canadian housing market is one factor making it likely Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will take a less aggressive approach to interest rates this year, notes an economist with one of the country’s biggest banks.

“The Bank is still leaning towards lifting rates, but not by much and not anytime soon,” writes Sal Guatieri, a senior economist with BMO, in response to Poloz’s speech before the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal.

Housing market observers monitor the central bank’s policy rate, also known as the key or overnight rate, because it, along with bond yields, influences mortgage rates in Canada. Since July 2017, the Bank of Canada has five times hiked the policy rate by 25 basis points.

The most recent hike was in October, when the central bank increased the rate to 1.75 percent, where it has remained. Last year, many observers had anticipated the Bank of Canada would continue with its bearish approach and raise the policy rate more than once this year, but increasingly the consensus appears to be that borrows must brace for just one hike this year.

“We expect just more rate hike this cycle, but not until December,” writes Guatieri, who in his response to Poloz’s speech outlines comments that support this view. “He (Poloz) repeated that households are more sensitive to higher rates due to elevated debt. He didn’t play up the recent rebound in oil prices, though this is one item that could improve the investment picture.”

Shannon Stach and her fiancé recently put an offer in on a great Toronto home, one they could envision settling down and raising a family in. They lost the bid by a mere $2,500.

“We were shocked,” she says. “That was our first time in this process of putting an offer down.”

With almost 30 home showings under her belt and a wedding on the horizon, Stach, a registered social worker and psychotherapist, is getting a glimpse of what some of some of her clients experience during their home purchasing journey: FOMO.

FOMO — the fear of missing out — is a form of social anxiety that is caused by being absent from events that are happening elsewhere. Prevalent among young people, FOMO is often associated with social media use, where users can constantly monitor what their peers are doing. The need to feel connected and involved in a common experience is a human instinct. Yet, some homebuyers are feeling the effects of FOMO — that they may never be able to participate in the dream of being a homeowner. Stach attributes this to high social expectations, especially for those like herself who are in the process of preparing for family life.

“It comes not only from perhaps family that are asking us, ‘When are you getting married? When are you going to have kids?’ I don’t want to have kids until I can have a home, and very often people can’t buy homes, so they’re missing this key point,” she says. “For women it starts to go to their heads. [They’ll say], ‘My biological clock is ticking, but I can’t buy a home. I don’t want to have kids in a condo.’”

Stach explains that FOMO, if left unchecked, can fester into larger psychological issues. FOMO victims might engage in impulsive spending behavior as a release from the financial restraints of saving for home buying expenses. First-time buyers may also experience negative thoughts or develop symptoms of general anxiety — irritability, sadness, chest tightness and heart palpitations. One American study conducted by Homes.com in 2018 found that one-in-three homebuyers cried from stress at some point in the home-buying process.

“I see a lot of people who then internalize this and get those feelings or thoughts of not being good enough or not measuring up to other people, which can create this whole downward spiral of that leading from the FOMO of not being able to buy a house to, ‘Well, I’m not good enough in my life,’” says Stach.

Steve Massaroni, a broker with Sutton Admiral’s The Brokers Group, has worked with his fair share of first-time home buyers. He’s seen first-hand how the unfamiliar process of house hunting can stress out hopeful homeowners.

“It’s an emotional roller coaster,” he says. “You’re doing all of this on top of work, plus kids. It’s all on top of your norm. For a first-time buyer, it’s something out of their comfort zone. Nobody likes being out of their comfort zone.”

To cover any “pain points” of the transaction, Massaroni rewards his clients whenever they overcome a first-time buyer milestone — a bottle of wine on the first offer signing, or a cleaner during the move-in day.

“I’m a real estate agent. I’m used to the buying, selling and moving. First time buyers — it’s their first time,” he says. “They’ve never done this before. They really need their hand held, to hear the plan, do some homework, figure out exactly want they want, make an educated decision.”

To prevent anxiety and minimize the effects of FOMO, here’s a few tips Massaroni and Stach recommend:

1. Make a top-5 list, but only hope to get two
Narrowing down what you want can help keep you grounded. When working with a client, Massaroni gets them to compartmentalize the things they must have in a home down to five items, but to only set their expectations so high.

“If they get two of them, then the house is good,” says Massaroni. “There’s no perfect house out there.”

Massaroni preaches that organization is key, so setting a plan for the future will help a first-time buyers envision what kind of home they’ll require for their yet-to-come needs.

“I try to get my new home buyers to do a one, five, and ten year life plan because that guides them in the right way,” he says. “If they say that they want to have a family or kids, or have pets, like a dog, they’re going to want to be close to schools and parks.”

2. Don’t take internal blame for an external problem
Keeping to your regular routine of eating healthy and exercising, Stach says, is an important part of practicing self-care in high-stress situations like home purchasing. It’s also crucial to be conscious of how you talk to yourself.

“Be really mindful that you not buying a home is not based on a condition of you not being good enough,” she says. “It’s really hard with what’s happening right now in our market, in our economy and in our society.”

Taking internal blame for an external problem will lead to emotional torture. New homebuyers should be careful not to take the onus for disadvantages in the real estate market that are beyond their control.

“This is the type of environment that we’re in. It’s a guessing game. You’re shooting blanks and you don’t know what’s going to happen,” says Stach.

3. Eliminate anxiety-inducing noise
If an auntie’s interrogation on your latest bidding war at the family barbeque is getting under your skin, it’s alright to change the conversation channel. Productive conversations of encouragement and support can be uplifting for a first-time buyer, but there should be limits if one is experiencing FOMO.

“I would say be really mindful of setting boundaries of how much you’re on your phone, how much you communicate to specific people,” says Stach. “If this time is really stressful for you and you are experiencing FOMO, you need to set boundaries and say, ‘This is one conversation that I’m not able to have right now. I can be happy for my friends, but I’m not ready to have full-on conversations about this process with them yet.’”

Massaroni recommends a more drastic approach — tuning out all together.

“That’s where first-time home buyers have to stop reading the papers and stop the the doom and gloom and stop going online and going insane,” he says. “Eliminate the noise.”

The Canadian housing market had a rough year in 2018: sales dropped by 11 percent while the 4.1 percent decline in average price was the worst performance seen since 1995.

But it didn’t have to be that way, suggests the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA’s) top economist.

If federal policymakers hadn’t gotten involved by introducing new stress testing, Canada’s housing market probably would’ve reached never-before-seen heights in 2018, writes Gregory Klump, the association’s chief economist, in an Economic Insight.
After all, he notes, the market had lots going for it. The economist reasons that strong rates of employment and immigration, half the Millennial generation turning 30 — and thus entering the prime age for first-time homebuyers — and low interest rates created an environment for a booming market.

But at the onset of 2018, new mortgage stress testing was introduced from federal watchdog the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institution’s “Guideline B-20” — and that took the wind out of the market’s sales.

The measure forced borrowers seeking an uninsured mortgage from a federally regulated financial institution to qualify at a rate that’s 200 basis points over what they’re applying for or that matches the Bank of Canada’s five-year benchmark rate, whichever of the two is higher.

Previously, borrowers could avoid stress testing by putting forward a downpayment of 20 percent or more on an uninsured mortgage.

Of course, even with the stress testing in place homebuyers can go to provincially regulated private lenders. But they typically offer higher interest rates than the big banks.

So with borrowers now facing a higher bar for mortgage qualification, CREA’s Klump doesn’t see the Canadian housing market regaining its stride any time soon.

“Unlike past policy changes, housing markets do not appear to be adjusting to this one. The boot prints from B-20 will continue to keep housing markets in check in 2019—and beyond,” Klump writes.