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Condo sales continue to post strong growth in Ottawa

Ottawa’s home sales market remains strong with condo class properties the clear leader.

Sales through the region’s MLS in July totalled 1,614, up 5.9% from the 1,524 a year earlier. Both years have exceeded the 5-year average of 1,501.

Of July’s sales, 1,238 were residential class with 376 in the condo class. The year-over-year increase was 3.6% for residential class and 14.3% for condo class.

“Ottawa’s condo market continues to positively impact overall residential sales trends with year-to-date condo unit sales up 16.5% from this time last year,” states Ralph Shaw, Ottawa Real Estate Board President. “As well, our overall inventory levels in both the residential and condo market are improving which will help ease pressure on prices. Units available are currently down 16% down from July 2017 rather than the 24% we were down at the beginning of the year.”

Average sales prices were up 5% for residential class and 5.3% for condo class homes to $441,206 and $280,526 respectively.

Rural neighbourhoods show gains
“We are noticing a surge in unit sales in the rural areas, particularly the west end,” notes Shaw. “This is not only driven by availability but likely includes other attractive aspects in these well-established communities such as reasonable commute times, convenient shopping options, and great schools and recreational facilities which aren’t overtaxed.”

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Real estate investment $1 billion club is getting bigger

Real estate is attracting more cash from institutional investors globally with those allocating at least U$1 billion growing in the past year.

In 2017, 422 investors were part of real estate’s ‘Billion Dollar Club’ but in 2018 that has risen to 499, a 13% increase according to industry analysts Preqin.

“The allocations of these investors now exceed $2.5tn, accounting for the vast majority of capital dedicated to the industry. It is striking that this figure has grown so much over the past year, and perhaps reflects a trend towards inflation-hedging and noncorrelated assets on the part of investors,” said Tom Carr, Preqin’s head of real estate.

The Billion Dollar Club comprises just 8% of active investors in real estate but with a total allocation of $2.5 trillion they hold 84% of total assets under management in the industry.

North American members of the club make up 34% of the global total with Europe taking a 47% share.

Public pension funds make up 28% of the club while insurance companies are the second largest group with 21%. Each accounts for 26% of aggregate allocations.

With opportunities for investment in real estate globally and across risk/return profiles, Carr believes there could be further institutional investors allocating $1bn+ to the sector.

“We may see more investors position themselves in anticipation of a market shift in the coming months and embrace real estate investments further, in which case the Billion Dollar Club could continue to swell,” he said.

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Toronto resales gain 18.6% in July, average selling price up

There was strong growth for resales in the Greater Toronto Area in July with sales up 18.6% year-over-year to 6,961 units.

Toronto Real Estate Board says that the average sales price was up 4.8% to $782,189 including a moderate rise for detached home types.

Preliminary seasonal adjustment shows a 6.6% rise in sales compared to June with the average sales price showing a 3.3% rise month-over-month.

That puts seasonally-adjusted sales at a 2018 high point and the average sales price at the highest level since May 2017.

“We have certainly experienced an increase in demand for ownership housing so far this summer. It appears that some people who initially moved to the sidelines due to the psychological impact of the Fair Housing Plan and changes to mortgage lending guidelines have re-entered the market. Home buyers in the GTA recognize that ownership housing is a quality long-term investment,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

Supply issues remain
However, new listings were down 1.8% year-over-year and TREB president Garry Bhaura says more needs to be done by officials to address the low inventory issues.

“The new provincial government and candidates for the upcoming municipal elections need to concentrate on policies focused on enhancing the supply of housing and reducing the upfront tax burden represented by land transfer taxes, province-wide and additionally in the City of Toronto,” said Mr. Bhaura.

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Artworks Tower opening this fall in Regent Park in Toronto!

Regent Park in Toronto is undergoing one of the most ambitious and incredible revitalizations in the history of the city, and Daniels is playing a leading role. The latest high-rise condo in the community was just announced – we’d like to introduce you to Artworks Tower.

Artworks Tower will rise 33 storeys and feature one- to three-bedroom units, starting from the high $300,000s. Located at Dundas and River, Artworks Tower bookends all the amazing development that has been completed and is underway in Regent Park.

Where does the name come from? The Regent Park community is known for its vibrant art scene – something Daniels has been supporting and strengthening through the revitalization.

“Art does, in fact, ‘work’. It works to unite us, to excite us, and to put us on the world stage,” reads the project website. “You may not know this, but art has been ‘working’ in Regent Park long before the revitalization. Now, more than ever, we celebrate the achievement of a community coming into its colourful own…with Artworks.”

The neighbourhood amenities include the Athletic Field the Aquatic Centre, many restaurants and coffee shops, community centres and artist hubs like Daniels Spectrum, and convenient access to transit and other nearby communities like St. Lawrence Market, Distillery District, and Corktown.

Daniels has a reputation for including innovative building amenities in their projects, and Artworks Tower is no exception. Artworks will feature co-working space, an outdoor terrace, a kids’ zone, a party room, an arcade, and a mega gym with indoor and outdoor crossfit spaces!

Join the Artworks Tower Inner Circle   

The best way to ensure you’re among the first to receive updates about Artworks Tower is to join the Inner Circle.

As a member of the Inner Circle, you will receive an invite to the first advanced sale, giving you the first choice of suites, floors, and views. You’ll also receive invites to members’ only events hosted by Daniels, as well as access to other insider info!

There is a fee of $300 to join the Inner Circle. This fee gets applied to the purchase price of the unit you buy. If you decide not to buy at Artworks Tower, then your money is fully refunded, no questions asked! There’s no fine print or anything – it’s completely risk-free!

Artworks Tower is opening this fall with prices starting in the high $300,000s. Receive priority info by joining the Inner Circle or register to receive general info and an invite to the public opening.

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I’m very interested in buying a certain house, but the seller wants me to fork over a really big deposit. If I change my mind, can I get my deposit back?

There’s no set amount for deposits, however. If the owner’s demand for a large deposit is a major sticking point, you could ask your real estate representative to try to negotiate a lower deposit amount with the seller.

A deposit is a money you put down to secure a property that you want to purchase. Providing a deposit is both a gesture of good faith and a serious commitment. Once the seller accepts your written offer, it becomes an Agreement of Purchase and Sale (APS), which is a legally binding contract.

Once the APS is signed and the deposit is provided to the seller’s rep, attempting to renege on the APS by saying, “Sorry, I’m no longer interested” is highly inadvisable. You will almost certainly lose your deposit. The seller also might sue you for damages for any difference between the amount of your offer and the amount they accept from another buyer, along with any additional legal fees and carrying costs. You don’t want to go down that road.

Deposits are sometimes returned to would-be buyers when conditions are placed on an offer and the conditions aren’t satisfied. For instance, if you make an offer on a house on the condition of financing, but your bank won’t approve it. Or your purchase depends upon the successful sale of your current home, but it doesn’t sell in time. Or you make your purchase conditional on a home inspection and the home inspector discovers a problem that stops you from moving forward.

If you can’t go through with the purchase because your conditions haven’t been met and you want your deposit back, you’ll have to sign a release form and get the seller’s signature, too. It’s a pretty straightforward procedure and sellers will usually go along with such requests. But if the seller suspects you didn’t act in good faith, they could refuse to hand over the money.

What happens next? Well, the deposit would stay in a trust account, usually with the seller’s brokerage, and the dispute between you and the seller would become a legal matter. If you and the seller are unable to arrive at a settlement, a judge could eventually release the funds through a court order. But I’ll warn you: that can take a long time.

It’s a myth that a seller can pocket a buyer’s deposit any time a deal falls through. Cases involving deposits of $25,000 or less can be decided in small claims court, which is relatively inexpensive and easy for ordinary Ontarians to use. Cases involving larger deposits, however, are decided in Ontario’s much more formal Superior Court of Justice. Court cases can quickly become expensive, so you should carefully consider all of your options before taking this route.

If you’re serious about buying this house, I strongly recommend working closely with both a lender — to get your financial ducks in a row — and a real estate salesperson before you commit yourself to a deal and hand over a deposit.

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Home sales and prices rise in Toronto region for a second straight month

In a sign that the Toronto area real estate market is in recovery mode, year-over-year resale home prices and sales rose for a second consecutive month in July.

Selling prices climbed 4.8 per cent to $782,129 last month, up from $745,971 in the same period last year, for all types of homes in the region, according to the latest numbers from the Toronto Real Estate Board released Friday.

The number of home sales also rose 18.6 per cent year over year in July, while new listings declined 1.8 per cent.

“It appears that some people who initially moved to the sidelines due to the psychological impact of the (Ontario) Fair Housing Plan and changes to mortgage lending guidelines have re-entered the market,” said Jason Mercer, the board’s director of market analysis.

July was the fifth consecutive month-to-month rise in Toronto region housing prices: up 3.1 per cent from June, according to the real estate industry’s Multiple Listing Service Home Price Index.

Condominiums continued to outperform lowrise housing such as detached, semi-detached and town homes. Condo prices rose 8.9 per cent on average last month to $546,984. About three-quarters of the 2,002 condos sold last month were in the city of Toronto.

Of the 2,390 detached houses that sold in the region, three-quarters were outside the city. Regionwide, detached house prices rose only 0.5 per cent on average to $1 million, but the scarcity helped increase prices 3.6 per cent inside the city, while they remained flat in the surrounding 905 communities. A detached house in Toronto cost $1.35 million on average, compared to $907,347 in the surrounding regions.

The lift in resale home numbers so far this summer — June prices and sales both rose about 2 per cent above 2017 levels — appears to signal the stronger second half of this year that the real estate board and industry executives have been predicting.

The real estate industry’s MLS Home Price Index showed a slight 0.59 per cent decline in July, but the board’s release said, “The annual growth rate looks to be trending toward positive territory in the near future.”

Seasonally adjusted figures, nevertheless, also showed year-over-year growth of 3.1 per cent in prices and 6.6 per cent in the number of home transactions.

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Condo construction in the GTA hits record high

Urbanation, the authority on condo market intelligence in the Greater Toronto Area, released its market results for the second quarter of 2018, reporting a drop in sales as developers respond to the buyer slowdown.

In 2017, pre-sales hit a record high, so it’s not surprising the total number of condo units under construction in Q-2018 hit a high of 63,904 (95% of which were pre-sold). Construction starts also hit a record high last quarter, reaching 7,981.

5,759 new condo units came to market in Q2-2018, and 56% were sold by the end of the quarter. Compare this to the same period last year when 9,521 units hit the market and 80% pre-sold. Clearly the new condo market is moderating. Unsold inventory in development jumped to 9,341 units, the highest in six quarters, but lower than the 10-year average of 15,807.

“The slowdown in new condo activity this year was fully anticipated following the record-breaking pace of activity last year,” reads the report release. “First half 2018 sales of 9,058 units were down 58% from 2017 (21,316) and 13% below the 10-year first half average of 10,471 sales.”

The average opening price in Q2-2018 was $835 per square foot, an 18% year-over-year increase, but down from the high of $954 per square foot in Q4-2017.

With skyrocketing prices in 2017, some buyers have been hesitant to get into the new condo market, plus resale prices have calmed down. As a result, developers are holding back on new launches. Compared to the same quarter last year, there were 51% fewer site openings.

“Fewer new pre-construction condo sales this year will help to keep the supply pipeline in check as construction starts and completions move to new highs over the next couple years,” says Shaun Hildebrand, President of Urbanation. “Ultimately, low unsold inventory and a stabilizing resale market will provide support for the new condo market in the second half of 2018.”

There were 6,019 condo transactions in the resale market in Q2-2018, which is 5% higher than the average for the quarter. Annual resale price growth came in at 5%, which is a significant slowdown from the 30% growth recorded in Q2-2017. Low supply is supporting price growth; for the last 10 consecutive quarters listings have dropped year-over-year.

As Urbanation points out, it makes sense that new condo sales and prices are easing up a bit after a year of record highs. As single-family home prices drop, condo units are still the most affordable option in the GTA, so demand is still there! We can’t wait to see what the second half of the year holds for the new condo market.

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New GTA condo supply “in check” says Urbanation

There was a record high for new condo starts in the GTA in the second quarter of 2018 (7,981) while sales slumped.

There was also a record high for condos under construction (63,905, 95% pre-sold) driven by a high level of pre-sales in 2017.

However, a report from Urbanation says that pre-sales of new condos in Q2 2018 was down 57% year-over-year to 4,977 units with a slower pace of new projects and absorptions moderating to their longer-term average.

Of the 5,759 units brought to market in pre-construction projects in Q2-2018, 56% were pre-sold by quarter end, which compares to an 80% opening absorption of the record 9,521 units launched in Q2-2017.

No surprise after 2017 high
The slowdown in sales is no surprise following the record breaking high of 2017.

First half 2018 sales of 9,058 units were down 58% from 2017 (21,316) and 13% below the 10-year first half average of 10,471 sales.

“Fewer new pre-construction condo sales this year will help to keep the supply pipeline in check as construction starts and completions move to new highs over the next couple years”, said Shaun Hildebrand, President of Urbanation. “Ultimately, low unsold inventory and a stabilizing resale market will provide support for the new condo market in the second half of 2018.”

Other highlights

  • The average opening price for new launches in Q2-2018 was $835 psf, up 18% year-over-year but down from the high of $954 psf for units launched in Q4-2017.
  • Unsold inventory in development moved up to 9,341 units — the highest level in six quarters but well below the 10-year average of 15,807 units
  • Condominium apartment resale volume was down 17% annually in Q2, marking an improvement over the 31% drop recorded in the previous quarter. Second quarter resales of 6,019 units remained 5% higher than the 10-year Q2 average (5,708)
  • Annual resale price growth of 5% in Q2-2018 represented a strong deceleration from the 30% annual growth recorded a year ago in Q2-2017. Continued positive resale price growth has been supported by low levels of supply, as total listings have declined year-over-year for 10 consecutive quarters
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These condo units are Toronto’s hottest commodity

Condo investment in Toronto tenders diminishing returns, but the discerning real estate investor can still turn a tidy profit.

Two-plus-twos— that is, two bedrooms and two bathrooms—are among the scarcest commodity in downtown Toronto real estate today. In a city wherein glass towers are sprouting faster than weeds, units are shrinking in size.

According to Manu Singh, a veteran investor and broker with Right At Home Realty, close to 70% of units in new builds are smaller than two-plus-twos, ergo, they teem with value.

“For an investor, the more scarce a product or service, the more valuable it will be down the road,” Singh told CREW. “That applies to everything, but when it comes to real estate you definitely want to be on the scarcity side, in terms of the unit you purchase.

“There’s more value to a two-plus-two, or even three-bedroom unit, because when they flip it for a profit they’ll have less competition and less supply that can dilute the sales price because buyers won’t have as much choice.”

Not only is there a dearth of two-plus-twos in downtown Toronto, they appeal to a wider cohort of buyers. Downsizers prefer the two-plus-two because, while significantly smaller than the house they sold, it’s still large enough to host their visiting children, who will have their own bedroom and bathroom.

Young professionals, too, flock to two-plus-twos, and are willing to pay premiums.

“You have extra room for a nursery and extra washroom for guests,” said Singh, adding that young professionals who cannot afford Toronto’s exorbitant rents or to buy a place of their own are also ideal candidates to rent a two-plus-two.

“Roommates are popular in the downtown core for urban professionals. You can increase the rent because you can split it among two income-earners.”

Toronto’s condo units are getting smaller by the build, so Singh recommends anything over 1,000 square feet.

“From an investor point of view, you want to focus on getting a larger two-plus-two in terms of square footage,” he said. “If you can get greater than 1,000 square feet, it’s a great investment because, again, newer developments are becoming smaller and smaller for the specs. In general, two-plus-twos rent higher and they sell better for those reasons. It’s great for investors.”

According to Sunny Sharma, president and co-owner of Century 21 Leading Edge VIP Realty Inc., the bedroom and bathroom combination is usually split so that each resident can have a semblance of privacy.

Alternatively, in student areas one-bedroom-plus dens equipped with two bathrooms are popular are commonly rented to university and college students.

But during preconstruction, two-plus-twos offer the best bang for your buck when it comes to square footage.

“The two-plus-two per square foot might be a little cheaper during preconstruction than one-bedroom-plus-dens and two-bedrooms because the demand isn’t as high,” said Sharma.

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You’re doing a bad job on housing affordability BC tells government

Housing affordability is the most important issue in British Columbia, beating healthcare, energy & pipelines, and the economy.

A report from Insights West shows that BC residents are three times more likely to cite housing affordability as the hot issue (36%) than healthcare (11%) while the economy is the top concern of just 7%.

The scorecard for BC Premier John Horgan shows a decline in approval after just over a year in office.

Housing affordability is a significant concern for the province’s younger residents, with the majority of those aged 18-34 (51%) saying that it is the most important issue facing the province. This issue also resonates more highly for Metro Vancouverites (47%) than the rest of BC.

Asked if they thought the BC government had done a good or bad job of handling house prices and housing affordability, 54% said ‘bad’ including 21% who said ‘very bad’; 24% said ‘good’ with just 2% saying ‘very good’; 24% weren’t sure.

These were among the provincial government’s lowest rankings along with homelessness and poverty.

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Canadian consumer confidence remains weak

 

Ongoing talk of trade wars and tariffs is dampening sentiment among Canadian consumers.

The weekly Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index has declined again in the latest reading (54.31) and although the pace of decline slowed, the index is at a 12-month low.

Just four week’s ago the index was at 55.28 and it started the year on 61.91.

Sub-indexes diverged with the one tracking job security and personal finances was higher (60.54 vs 59.69 four weeks ago) while expectation for the economy and real estate prices was down (48.08 vs 50.88 4 weeks ago).

“The proportion of Canadians who think the Canadian economy will get stronger has hit a low not seen since 2015,” said Nanos Research, Chief Data Scientist, Nik Nanos. “The fact that Canadians are almost four times more likely to believe the Canadian economy will get weaker than stronger in the next six months speaks to a noticeable level of economic anxiety.”

Overall confidence was unchanged among homeowners while renters were generally more confident.

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Vancouver approves laneway housing improvements

Vancouver will make changes to bylaws to make it easier to build laneway housing.

The City Council voted in favour of the changes this week which will help to achieve the Housing Vancouver target of 4,000 new laneway homes over the next 10 years.

“It’s great to see City Council support changes to get more laneway homes built in neighbourhoods across the city,” said Mayor Gregor Robertson. “We’ve heard loud and clear that Vancouver residents want more housing choices and laneway homes are a great option for middle-income households.”

The agreement on the changes means several benefits:

  • Streamlining approvals for one and a half storey laneway homes by introducing an outright review process similar to the current process for one storey laneway homes
  • Supporting more functional and flexible laneway home design by increasing allowable heights and updating the method of measuring height
  • Improving livability by introducing minimum room size requirements
  • Providing more flexibility for the location and design of one-storey laneway houses

Since 2009, the Laneway Housing Program has approved more than 3,900 laneway homes across the city.

“These changes are a result of consultation with the public through Housing Vancouver about housing needs, as well as focused engagement with owners and renters of laneway homes, industry engagement, and staff analysis,” says Paula Huber, Senior Planner. “By removing identified barriers to building a laneway home, we are making it easier and faster to build the type of housing we know people want and need.”

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Toronto is fastest-growing tech market in North America

The technology sector is continuing to view Toronto as a great place to be based, driving demand for offices and other CRE units, while also supporting employment in the city.

A report from CBRE shows that 28,900 technology jobs were added in 2017, a rise of 13.6% from the previous year.

“High-quality and well-educated tech talent, cost-efficiencies and welcoming immigration policies are competitive advantages for the Canadian tech markets. Toronto continues to outpace other North American markets, having added more tech jobs in 2017 than the San Francisco Bay Area, Seattle and Washington, D.C. combined,” commented Paul Morassutti, Executive Managing Director at CBRE Canada. “Canada’s tech markets are booming. In downtown Toronto alone, tech demand sits at 36% of all current office space demand.”

Toronto ranks fourth in the top 5 markets for tech talent in 2018, which also includes San Francisco Bay Area (1), Seattle (2), Washington DC (3), and New York (5).

Ottawa, Montreal increasingly appealing
While Toronto is a top 5 tech town, two other Canadian cities are climbing the ranks; Ottawa and Montreal are ranked 13th and 14th respectively in CBRE’s scorecard.

Ottawa beats North American peers for concentration of tech talent; while Toronto is third at 8.9%, Ottawa’s 11.2% means it has more than three times the US national average of 3.5%.

“Ottawa is shedding its government town image. It is home to over 1,700 technology companies and employs over 70,000 tech talent employees,” said Shawn Hamilton, Managing Director of CBRE Ottawa. “In the last five years, urban tech has grown to be the second largest user group in downtown Ottawa, bigger than the accounting and legal sectors combined. Shopify continues to be our homegrown success story and has the international appeal to encourage tech clustering.”

Toronto ranks as North America’s fourth largest tech talent market, with over 241,000 tech workers, representing an increase of 51.5% over the past five years. Tech industry growth has accelerated demand for downtown Toronto office space, pushing vacancy down to 2.9% in Q2 2018, the lowest on record for the city and across North America.

“Companies looking to house operations are putting serious thought to locating in Canada. Compared to cities such as New York, Washington, D.C., Newark and Los Angeles, Toronto is among the best value for quality options for tech firms thanks to less expensive access to labour and real estate, but also high educational attainment levels. In short, Canada provides access to very high quality labour at a fraction of the cost,” said Paul Morassutti, Executive Managing Director at CBRE Canada.

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It’s not just condos — Toronto is also running out of commercial real estate

Canada is not just running out of residential real estate in its key markets — the country’s commercial and industrial real estate is also filling up fast.

Availability of industrial property across the country fell to a historically low level of 3.9 per cent in 2018, while supply tightened in eight of the 10 major commercial real estate markets, according to CBRE Group, Inc., the real estate services and investment firm.

Though Canada has 70.6 million square feet of available industrial space left across the country, leading to the highest net rent the country has ever seen, at $7.21 per sq ft in the second quarter.

“Availability in Canada’s major industrial markets continue to plummet, which is putting pressure on tenants,”  Werner Dietl, executive vice-president and GTA regional managing director at CBRE Canada, said in a report published Tuesday.

However, strong demand for industrial space in Canada has led to a 47.1 per cent increase in construction activity, CBRE said.

The new facilities should ideally be located close to city highways and near population centres, which has compelled some markets such as Montreal to increase its transit capacity in a bid to attract more commercial operations.

Demand for e-commerce, food distribution and warehousing were leading factors driving demand for industrial real estate in the country.

“It’s no secret that e-commerce is driving a lot of activity globally. With the change in of how people are shopping, we’re seeing a shift in how retailers are running. We also see it in the food sector, which is showing investments in more effective distribution.” Dietl said.

Toronto is currently the most constrained industrial market in North America, sitting at a 2.2 per cent availability, thanks to its ideal location and demographics that appeal to both foreign and local companies.

Vancouver is North America’s second tightest market, with 2.4 per cent of industrial availability left. The average net asking lease rates on the West Coast city stood at $11.59 per square feet, a 33 per cent increase rate since the start of 2017.

While Vancouver and Toronto markets were tight, Calgary marked its sixth consecutive quarter of rising vacancy rates, due to low unemployment rates and lower economic activity. However, the rise of e-commerce and cannabis facilities across the province has led to new construction, to offset the oil-led downturn. As much as 3.5 million sq ft. of industrial space is at the construction stage to meet rising demand in those sectors, CBRE estimates.

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Construction applications for GTA rental buildings tripled last quarter: Urbanation

Toronto’s low rental vacancy rate has been pushing rents upwards for months, and last quarter was no exception.

The average rent for a 732 square-foot Toronto apartment rose 11.2 per cent year-over-year to $2,302 last quarter, according to a new report from Urbanation.

Meanwhile, condo lease transactions fell 8 per cent to just 7,754 as the rental market hit what Urbanation senior VP Shaun Hildebrand calls a “critically low level” of supply.

But there is some good news: The number of applications for new purpose-built rentals was 3.5 times greater than Q2 2017, with 5,920 new units proposed last quarter.

The reason for the uptick in applications? Developers are looking to capitalize on sky-high rents, says Hildebrand.

“[The rise in applications] is a direct response to the growth in rents,” Hildebrand tells Livabl. “It offsets a lot of the negative impacts of rent control [on purpose-built rental construction.]”

While Hildebrand says that he believes the level of construction is still too low, he believes that last quarter’s increase signals a move in the right direction.

“If we continue along this path, we eventually will get to the point where we get to a balanced market,” he says. “Not anytime soon, but if we continue this trajectory, then yes.”

Hildebrand says it is critical not to rely on condo investors to supply the city with rental stock, especially since there are some signs that investors may be selling their units instead of placing them on the rental market.

“When we look at the percentage of condo units that were added into the rental pool last quarter, that percentage has been declining,” he says. “Fewer investors are holding onto their units after they get built.”

As for the much-decried rent control legislation — which came into effect last April, as part of the province’s Fair Housing Plan — Hildebrand says that, while rental construction does seem to be on the rise, the policy is still negatively impacting the market in other ways.

“Rent control is still an issue because tenant turnover has been declining,” he says. “Reasonable rate of rent growth has been jeopardized because tenants aren’t moving as often.”

Hildebrand says that with fewer units being rented out, and fewer being turned over, the city becomes caught in what he calls a “supply trap,” with less activity across the board, placing an upward pressure on rent prices.

Still, he is hopeful that the market could be in what he calls the “early stages of an upward trajectory.”

“We’re still going to be undersupplied for a long, long time,” he says. “It’s going to take awhile to see supply reach a level that will satisfy the amount of demand.”

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Real estate brokers see GDP gain for first time this year

Canada’s economy saw some slight growth in April as real GDP gained 0.1%, the third month of growth following a decline in January.

Statistics Canada reports that 12 of 20 industrial sectors gained, driven by a 0.2% rise for goods producing industries despite a decline for construction.

Services industries were broadly unchanged but real estate brokers and agents posted their first gains of 2018 with a 0.5% rise in output. The industry posted three monthly declines at the start of the year following the introduction of the new mortgage rules in January.

The colder-than-usual weather in April impacted many industries including retail and motor dealers and parts; energy firms gained.

For construction, there was a 0.5% decline with residential construction falling 1% as building activity declined in most types of structures. The monthly decline for the sector overall was the largest since the strike-influenced decline of May 2017.

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Household lending conditions eased in Q2

The latest Senior Loan Officer Survey from the Bank of Canada shows how lending conditions have changed in the second quarter of 2018.

The new mortgage rules introduced at the start of the year continue to impact mortgage approval rates for low-ratio mortgages while the changes to regulations introduced at the end of 2016 are still impacting high-ratio loans.

The report shows that for the remaining pool of qualifying borrowers, lenders eased pricing conditions for both low and high ratio mortgages while non-price lending conditions remained unchanged.

The survey points to a tightening of mortgage lending conditions in the third quarter.

There were few changes for conditions in non-mortgage lending and demand for non-mortgage borrowing was unchanged.

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Rate hike likely this month but then a pause?

The Bank of Canada will meet to decide on its latest move on interest rates next week and many are expecting an increase.

But once July’s hike is done, things become less clear as the economy is showing some mixed signals.

Two economists from Canada’s big banks have given their assessment of the likelihood of rate rises and both are confident that homeowners are facing higher mortgage costs from this month.

CIBC’s Avery Shenfeld says that the recent GDP and outlook survey were positive and a strong labour force survey for June is also expected.

“That will be the last piece of the puzzle for a Bank of Canada rate hike in July, but we’re also of the view that economic growth will moderate enough after Q2 to force another extended pause on rates,” he says.

Meanwhile, TD Economic’s James Marple is also expecting June’s labour figures to support a July interest rate rise; and concurs with Shenfeld’s call for a pause afterwards.

“Given a more cautious outlook and ongoing threat of escalating trade wars, we suspect it will be some time before we see another hike,” he says.

Marple notes that the housing market has shown some signs of stabilization with  some markets, Ottawa and Montreal for example, showing “decent positive momentum.”

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