What You Should Know About the Ontario & GTA Housing Market

GTA New Condo Prices by Month

Average Greater Toronto Area New Condo Asking Prices

• Average GTA new condominium apartment asking prices per-square-foot are up 63% since 2018, but down 8% annually to just under $1,500 psf in August.
• The average end-selling price was $1.33 million for a new condo in the GTA in August, down 21% annually.
• We are yet to see a lot of high-rise developers lower pricing in 2023, instead choosing to offer incentives to move product. With that said, the most successful launches are coming to market at 2021 price levels, pulling the overall average price down.

New Condo Price Growth by Municipality & Year

Year-Over-Year Change in New Condo Pricing by City

• Six municipalities experienced annual new condo price growth per-square-foot of over 25% in 2022, with Kitchener and Waterloo topping that list at 45% and 44%, respectively. Previously viewed as tertiary markets, the KW region is now valued more like a GTA suburb.
• In the City of Toronto, new condo prices rose 5% annually in 2021 and 13% annually in 2022, but have fallen 2% year-to-date this year (ending August 2023).
• The municipalities with the highest price growth in 2023 are primarily markets with limited launch activity in 2022, and based on fairly small sample sizes.

Historical Investor Returns – Select East Toronto Projects

Launch Pricing versus Resale Pricing

Bullpen Consulting Pulled Data on the Average Price of New Condos Launched in East Toronto and Scarborough, and Compared them Against Average Resale Prices from September 2022 to August 2023.

• There are five high-rise projects analyzed in Scarborough in the chart above. These projects have seen pricing increase by just under 80% on average from launch, an average annual return of 11%.
• There were 16 mid-rise projects reviewed, with data showing that these projects have increased in value by 73% on average or 9% annually.

Average Rent at GTA Buildings Completed since 2014

Quarterly Average Rent and Rent Per-Square-Foot

• When considering condominium and rental apartments completed over the last 10 years in the GTA, the average asking rent was $3,184 in Q3-2023 (July and August only) based on a sample of listings data, compared to $3,085 per month in the fourth quarter of last year (+3%).
• On a per-square-foot basis, these condo and rental projects that are less than 10 years old are asking approximately $4.43 psf in rent in the third quarter, compared to $4.20 psf in Q4-2022 (+5%).
• In should be mentioned that the average unit size is falling (719 sf vs 735 sf), contributing to the increase in per-foot rent levels. The median unit size in Q4-2022 was 702 sf, compared to the median unit size in Q3-2023 of 669 sf.

Average Rent at Recently Completed PBR Buildings in the GTA

Quarterly Average Rent Per-Square-Foot for Select “Newer” Purpose-Built Rental Apartments

• These 20 buildings (high-activity projects completed over the last 10 years) were asking about $4.16 psf on average for rent in the second quarter of 2023, versus $4.37 psf in Q3-2023.
• One of the newest developments to start their lease-up program is Maple House at Canary Landing, with asking rents of approximately $4.75 psf.

Condo Launch Prices versus 2023 Rent Levels – New Completions

Condo Launch Prices Per-Square-Foot versus Average Rent Per-Square-Foot (2023 Completed/Registered Condos)

• The average asking rent per-square-foot at these 2023-completed condominium apartments in southwestern Ontario is $3.89 psf versus an average launch price of $805 psf. The rent represents 0.48% of the launch price (rent-to-price ratio).
• Projects where rent is the highest versus the launch price is 0.73% at the Gaslight District Condos in Cambridge, and 71% at Rodeo Drive Condos in the Shoppes at Don Mills development in North York. There is “rent value” for lower-priced markets like Cambridge, while the rent value created at Rodeo Drive is due the the 7+ years from launch to occupancy.