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GTA condo rents rise amid supply challenges

Condo rents in the Greater Toronto Area increased 9.4% year-over-year on a per square foot basis in the third quarter of 2018.

Urbanation reports that tight supply of rental units pushed the average rent up to $3.26 per square foot although average monthly rent payments rose slightly less as the average unit size leased in Q3-2018 declined to 731 sf from 744 sf in Q3-2017.

The increase means that the average rent in the GTA was $2,385, up 7.6% year-over-year.

The number of condo lease transactions reached their highest third quarter level in three years at 8,186 units, up 5% year-over-year as new supply became available.

More supply required

There was a slowdown in purpose-built rental construction starts (826 units) sharply lower than the recent high of 2,635 starts in Q2-2018. It meant the lowest quarterly level of starts of the past two years.

Total inventory of purpose-built rentals under construction moved up to 11,172 units — the highest level in more than 30 years and 56% higher than a year earlier (7,167 units) and next year a record 28,163 apartments reach completion, including 4,419 purpose-built rental units.

“Rapid rent growth has persisted in the GTA for over two years now, making it very clear that much higher levels of supply are needed to create a balanced market environment,” said Shaun Hildebrand, President of Urbanation. “While increasing condo completions should begin to have at least some calming effect on rent increases next year, more upward momentum in purpose-rental construction is required to meet overall demand.”

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Canadian housing starts fall to lowest in almost two years

Canadian housing starts fell to the lowest in almost two years in September, led by a drop in British Columbia.

Builders began work on an annualized pace of 188,683 units last month, down 5.1 percent from August, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported Tuesday. That trailed all 11 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey.

Canada’s housing market has slowed this year, hindered by rising mortgage rates and tougher qualification rules. Tuesday’s report adds to evidence real estate is starting to act as a drag on growth.

“As these forces continue to weigh on the housing market, we see residential investment turning from a boost to a drag on gross domestic product in 2019,” Royce Mendes, an economist at CIBC World Markets, said in a research note.

It was the third straight monthly decline, and starts fell to the lowest level since November 2016, driven by an 8.9 percent drop in urban multiple-unit projects. Construction on new single-unit homes rose 2 percent.

Starts are forecast to slow this year to 214,000 units, and again to 197,000 units in 2019, from a peak of 226,000 in 2017, according to a separate Bloomberg survey of economists.

British Columbia saw the most significant deterioration, with starts falling 43 percent in September to an annualized 25,611 units, the housing agency’s report showed. They dropped 42 percent in Vancouver and 56 percent in Victoria.

Part of the nationwide decline reflects a slowdown from an unsustainable peak of about 247,000 units in June, Royal Bank of Canada senior economist Nathan Janzen said by phone from Toronto. That could allow the central bank to continue lifting interest rates, after it hiked four times since mid-2017.

“The slowing to a more manageable pace of activity should be welcomed by the Bank of Canada and isn’t expected to prevent further gradual interest rate hikes,” Janzen said.

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The power of fear

 

While fear keeps us from danger, it also can keep us from many other amazing experiences.

Your palms are sweaty. Your stomach has that light, unsettled feeling. Your mind races eagerly from thought to thought.

Fear is an innate part of the human experience and has been essential to our survival as a species for thousands of years. While fear keeps us from danger, it also can keep us from many other amazing experiences.

Recently, I was asked to speak at a community networking event. I was honored to be asked and excited about the opportunity, but fear reared its ugly head. Like it is for many others, public speaking is outside my comfort zone. The thought of addressing a crowd full of people was overwhelming. Would I speak well? Would they learn from me? Could I inspire them?

Doubt sunk in. A flurry of negative thoughts raged through my mind, from stumbling over my words to physically stumbling over the podium. I had a choice: Give into fear and maintain the status quo, or challenge myself and give it my best.

I accepted the offer and decided not to let fear get in my way. To do the best job possible, I knew extensive preparation was essential. I took plenty of time to prepare my points, hone my message and practice out loud. I was nervous, but ready.

Ultimately, the presentation went well, and I got tons of great feedback. I’m glad I accepted the offer and tried something new.

Like many people faced with a career challenge, it’s easy to take the comfortable path. However, when you do this – whether for public speaking, a big promotion or a move across the country – you’ll always wonder about the road less traveled.

The next time fear creeps up, rather than considering it a warning of impending failure, view it as a sign you’re on the right path. Some of the world’s most successful entrepreneurs and inventors attest that fear isn’t always a warning of the negative; it’s often a signal that you’re on your way to success.

When facing doubt, it’s important to realize fear is not unique to you. Everyone experiences fear, even those you might feel are immune to it. Will Ferrell’s 2017 commencement speech for the University of Southern California made this point perfectly.

“You’re never not afraid. I’m still afraid,” Ferrell said. “I was afraid to write this speech. And now, I’m just realizing how many people are watching me right now, and it’s scary. Can you please look away while I deliver the rest of the speech? But my fear of failure never approached in magnitude my fear of what if. What if I never tried at all?”

For the graduates about to embark on a brand-new adventure, he offered some advice that I think is fitting for just about anyone:

  • Enjoy the process of your search without succumbing to the pressure of the result.
  • Trust your gut.
  • Keep throwing darts at the dartboard.
  • Don’t listen to the critics – you will figure it out.

So next time you feel fear holding you back from trying something new – whether in your personal or professional life – I encourage you to push those feelings down and stomp them with your foot. Then be bold and see what happens. Chances are, you’ll succeed. At the very least, you’ll be glad you tried.

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CMHC releases Sept. housing starts data

The annual pace of Canadian housing starts fell to their lowest level in nearly two years in September.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says the seasonally adjusted annual rate came in at 188,683 units last month, down from 198,843 in August.

Thomson Reuters Eikon says economists had expected an annual rate of 210,000 for September.

September marks the third straight monthly decline.

The slowdown in the pace of housing starts comes amid rising interest rates from the Bank of Canada, and more restrictive mortgage rules.

“The September housing starts report fits with the relative calm and return to normality in sales, market balance and price growth that we are seeing across most of the country this year, in particular Toronto, following speculative excesses in Southern Ontario earlier last year and a moderate correction in response to policy measures earlier this year,” wrote Sal Guatieri, a senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, in a note.

“Demand continues to be supported by the fastest population growth in 27 years and new millennial-led households. A calmer housing market is just what the doctor ordered, and won’t discourage the Bank of Canada from raising rates on Oct. 24.”

CMHC says the pace of urban starts fell by 5.9 per cent to 175,653 units. The slowdown was dragged down by an 8.9 per cent drop to 122,656 units in urban multiple-unit projects such as condos, apartments and townhouses. Single-detached urban starts increased by two per cent to 52,997.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 13,030 units, while the six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates was 207,768 for September, down from 213,966 in August.

British Columbia led the declines with a drop of 43.3 per cent due to stiffer mortgage rules and growing lack of affordability, particularly in the Greater Vancouver area. Alberta also saw a drop of 34.8 per cent, amid a weakening in the oil-producing economies.

Meanwhile, Ontario housing starts increased 21.3 per cent, led by Toronto condos and Quebec was up 15.4 per cent.

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Toronto is not the least affordable market in Ontario

Toronto is often considered to be the least affordable housing market in Ontario but that’s not the case says Zoocasa.

The real estate website’s analysis shows that a median income earner ($65,859) in Toronto would be $41,282 short of what’s needed to buy the average-priced home ($785,223).

But despite a higher median income ($88,535), buying in Richmond Hill would require an extra $47,962 due to the average house price of $999,311.

That’s because 52% of Richmond Hill’s home sales are single-family detached properties compared to the varied mix of properties selling in Toronto.

The figures assume a 20% down payment and a 30-year mortgage rate of 3.14%.

The top 5 least affordable markets in Ontario are completed by Vaughan, Markham, and Oakville.

Ontario’s most affordable
For the most affordable options in the province, Thunder Bay leads with an average home price of $227,750. That would mean a median income earner ($66,163) would have more than twice the required income needed.

Sudbury, Ottawa, Whitby, and Waterloo complete the top 5.

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GTA new homebuyers on the sidelines in August

August saw new home sales on pause in the Greater Toronto Area but there are signs that better things are ahead.

The Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) says that there were 974 new home sales according to data from Altus Group, including 171 single-family homes, a 50% increase year-over-year but 80% below the 10-year average.

Condo apartments saw a 1% decline in sales year-over-year. The 803 sales were 23% below the 10-year average.

Patricia Arsenault, Altus Group’s Executive Vice-President, Data Solutions, says that pent-up demand is building and should result in stronger activity for the fall market.

And BILD president and CEO David Wilkes is optimistic that things will improve once homebuyers, currently on the sidelines, become more confident in the economy and the impact of the mortgage stress test and other interventions ease.

“Once the market adjusts and more people start looking for homes, our region’s short supply of housing will mean that affordability will continue to be a challenge for many new home buyers,” he said.

In August, the benchmark price of new condominium apartments rose to $784,512, up 21.8% over the last 12 months. The benchmark price of new single-family homes was $1,129,129, down 12.4% over the last year.

Action required on supply
Mr Wilkes says that action is required by policymakers to address the low supply of homes in the GTA.

Inventory in August decreased to 13,619 units with 8,842 condo apartment units and 4,777 single-family units.

“Ahead of the municipal elections in the GTA, BILD has been talking to municipal leaders and residents about straightforward steps that municipalities can take to increase housing supply, including making sure that government charges on new homes are fair, funding and building critical infrastructure, cutting red tape and speeding up building permits and inspections,” said Wilkes.

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GTA market correction has ended says RE/MAX

The impact of the mortgage stress test is easing and the Greater Toronto Area’s housing market is showing growth – signalling the end of the market correction.

That’s the assessment from RE/MAX INTEGRA, Ontario-Atlantic Canada Region which says that demand for single-family homes is on the upswing and average prices are starting to rebound.

“The worst is now behind us. Pent-up demand will be a factor in the coming months, as homebuyers – many of whom delayed their purchasing plans – are entering the market,” says Christopher Alexander, the firm’s EVP and Regional Director.

He adds that momentum is expected to build towards the traditional fall market and remain buoyant for the rest of the year.

First-time buyers are leading the charge
Notable in the market is the participation of first-time homebuyers in the single-family detached $600K-900K sector.

There has been a 22% rise in buyers of these homes since June (4,086) but inventory is low in the 416 and may see more buyers searching in the 905 area where inventory is greater.

Luxury homes are also seeing growth with a 16% year-over-year rise in sales of single-family homes over $2 million.

Rollercoaster for market
“It’s been a real roller coaster for single-detached properties in the GTA over the past 32-month period,” explains Alexander. After reaching peak levels in early 2017, market-cooling tactics such as Ontario’s Fair Housing Plan in April, the federal government’s mortgage stress test expansion in October of 2017, and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate hike in January of 2018 created a great deal of uncertainty in the market.”

Although the stress test for high-ratio mortgages, introduced in 2016, had little impact on the market, Alexander says the subsequent interventions certainly did.

But he adds that the policy changes were needed to cool the increasingly hot market.

“The pace was simply unsustainable,” says Alexander. “While government intervention appeared heavy- handed at the time, in retrospect, the measures put in place served to cool down a wildly overheated market.”

Floodgates are open
Alexander says the future is bright for the GTA’s economy with population and employment gains helping to boost the housing market.

“After an extended period of housing market inertia, the floodgates are breaking open,” he says. “Upward movement in detached housing values and the threat of additional interest rate hikes in the future are prompting homebuyers to get off the fence and into the market. Rising consumer confidence, job security and an economy firing on all cylinders should continue to support healthy home-buying activity in the GTA for the remainder of the year and into 2019.”

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BIG’s King Street West Condo Community Approved for Development in Toronto

Biarke Ingels Group has received approval for their King Street West condo community in Toronto. Originally proposed in 2016, the development was made as sets of pixels extruded upwards to create space for housing, retail and boutique offices. The concept was formed to avoid the footprints of heritage buildings that already exist on site. Alex Bozikovic, architecture critic of The Globe and Mail, reports that the development is about to start sales as King Street West pushes past its latest development hurdle.

 

King Street West is set in a transitional area of Toronto. Located at the meeting point of three 20th century neighborhood parks, BIG Westbank and Allied Properties REIT proposed a mixed use development with a public plaza that will create a new center for the community while connecting the various pedestrian pathways that crisscross the area. The building is organized as a traditional perimeter block with a public plaza in the center. Surrounding the plaza, King Street West rises as sets of pixels, each pixel set at the size of a room; rotated 45 degrees from the street grid to increase exposure to light and air.

The project features a distinct undulating facade to create additional green space. “With King Street West, we wanted to find an alternative to the tower and podium you see a lot of in Toronto and revisit some of Safdie’s revolutionary ideas, but rather than a utopian experiment on an island, have it nested into the heart of the city. It would be strange if one of the most diverse cities in the world had the most homogenous architecture.” Bjarke Ingels, Founding Partner, BIG.

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BIG King West Newest Rendering

The newest renderings of BIG King West have seen the concrete give way for stunning glass blocks.

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Canada among world’s four riskiest housing markets

Housing market dangers are “especially acute” in Australia, Hong Kong, Canada and Sweden, Oxford Economics said, noting this has historically posed a threat to economic activity.

“In all four, valuations are very elevated, there has been a lengthy housing boom, debt levels are high and there is a significant share of floating rate debt,” Adam Slater, lead economist at Oxford, said in a research note.

On the positive side, it notes risks are relatively limited in key markets like the U.S., Germany, France, China and Japan. In addition, across most economies there has been no significant recent rise in mortgage rates, which have even fallen in some cases.

“So, the classic ‘trigger’ for house price declines is largely absent,” Slater said. “However, rising rates are not strictly necessary for prices to start falling.”

House prices are falling in Australia, down almost 3 percent in the year through August in major cities, and 5.6 percent in the Sydney market. Meanwhile, three of the nation’s four major banks raised mortgage rates in recent weeks, blaming higher funding costs. The increases came even as the central bank leaves official rates at a record low.

Oxford said it compared markets across OECD countries from 1970 to 2013 and found a clear negative relationship. Where valuations had risen 35 percent or more above the long-term average over that period, real house prices fell 75 percent of the time over the following five years, it said.

“This points to many OECD countries seeing stagnant or negative real house price growth in the next few years: the scope for a further house price ‘melt-up’ in highly valued markets looks extremely limited,” Slater said.

Stretched valuations also matter because house price changes can have a significant impact on economic activity, Oxford said, citing a sample of 83 house price booms. It also found house prices tended to fall after booms, and often substantially.

“For the G7 countries, we find a positive relationship between consumer spending and real house prices from 1997, albeit possibly weakening in recent years,” Slater said.

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Major tech player confirms allure of Toronto real estate

Toronto is home to some of the world’s most innovative technology companies and now arguably the most famous name in tech has announced a major real estate investment in the city.

Microsoft will base its Canadian operations in a new state-of-the-art headquarters in 132,000 square feet over four floors of 81 Bay Street, CIBC Square, with a move-in date of September 2020.

The inclusion of Microsoft to downtown Toronto will only serve to reinforce the city’s reputation as a technology hotspot, good news for commercial real estate.

The GTA’s residential real estate market is also likely to feel some impact as staff from the existing Mississauga headquarters seek a shorter commute and more jobs are created in the downtown centre.

Welcomed with open arms
“This announcement by Microsoft offers yet more evidence of the strength of Toronto as a global technology centre, and as a desirable home for major corporations. By choosing South Core as its new home, Microsoft is embracing one of the hottest new areas of downtown and Toronto welcomes them with open arms,” said Toronto Mayor John Tory.

Along with its Canadian headquarters relocation, Microsoft is also planning the relocation and expansion of its research and development lab in Montreal, relocation of its Vancouver sales office, and renovation and redesign of its Ottawa, Calgary and Montreal sales offices.

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Ontario suffers worst employment cut nationwide in August

Last month, the Ontario labor market experienced the worst setback nationwide in terms of employment numbers, losing 80,100 part-time jobs.

This was the province’s largest employment drop since 2009, contributing to fears of even lowered purchasing power in a market already characterized by inflamed prices.

The loss largely contributed to the unexpected loss of 92,000 part-time jobs nationwide in August, Statistics Canada said late last week. This was the second worst month-over-month decline since last decade’s recession, offsetting a 40,400 gain in full-time positions.

National unemployment went up to 6% as a result, compared to July’s 5.8% and exceeding Bloomberg pollsters’ predictions of 5.9%. Meanwhile, wage increases have crawled to their slowest rate this year.

 

A new report by Point2 Homes stated that multiple trends – including weaker purchasing power brought about by unemployment – worked together to pull down the national home ownership rate for the first time in nearly 5 decades.

“The burst of China’s speculative bubble sent shock waves through the global economy… with especially large effects on Canada’s resource-based, export-driven economy,” the report explained.

“The collapse of oil prices and the country’s heavy reliance on exports to its Asian partner pushed Canada into a recession. The ensuing economic deceleration affected wages, hence lowering people’s purchasing power. Home prices, however, kept going up, leading to the decline in homeownership rates revealed by the 2016 StatsCan numbers.”

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Canada’s commercial real estate investment sets new record

Investment in Canadian commercial real estate has reached a new record high, beating the previous record set in Q1 2017.

Q2 2018 saw $16.5 billion of CRE transactions, 38% above the previous high of $11.97 billion and 105% above the 5-year quarterly average. The half-year total is also a new record high at $26.8 billion.

CBRE reports that two major M&A closings in the quarter – Choice Properties’ acquisition of CREIT and Blackstone’s acquisition of PIRET – accounted for 45% of the total activity in the quarter.

Activity was further driven by large single asset deals including Hines and Oaktree Capital Management’s $107 million purchase of Calgary’s First Tower office building and Tigra Vista Inc.’s $256 million acquisition of Toronto’s Parkway Place.

“With two large M&A transactions closing within the second quarter, it’s not surprising that investment volume was the strongest ever in Canadian history. In fact, the average deal size in Q2 was up 67% year-over-year to $9.4 million, which is reflective of the size and significance of the investors in real estate today,” Peter Senst, President, Canadian Capital Markets at CBRE Canada.

A tale of two cities

Toronto and Vancouver are still the clear leaders for commercial real estate investment.

CBRE’s figures show that Toronto accounted for more than a third of total Q2 2018 transactions with more than $5.7 billion, a new quarterly record for the market and beating the previous high ($4.7 billion in Q2 2013) by 20%.

Vancouver saw more than $3.9 billion of CRE investment in the quarter.

Compared to the 5-year quarterly averages Toronto was 82% above and Vancouver was 91% above.

Calgary, Montreal and Edmonton rounded out the top five with $2.5 billion, $1.7 billion and $1.5 billion, respectively.

“Interest in Canadian commercial real estate today has a lot to do with Canada’s global market leading fundamentals. Toronto and Vancouver together have maintained the two tightest downtown office vacancies for four consecutive quarters and the two lowest industrial availability rates for six consecutive quarters in North America,” added Senst.

Industrial, multifamily lead

Although industrial investment outpaced all other sectors in Q2 2018 (37% of the quarter’s total CRE investment of $6 billion), CBRE says that without the M&A activity multifamily and industrial tied at $1.9 billion.

Simply put, investors want multi-family exposure because it is a good long-term investment strategy. No matter the economic or political state, people are always going to need places to live, which translates to a consistent flow of income for investors,” said Senst.

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Using the sandwich lease for real estate investing

This isn’t a recipe for a lunch sandwich; it’s the recipe for rental property investing with little or no cash of your own. There is plenty of pie-in-the-sky noise out there about getting rich quick investing in real estate. This is a realistic article about one way to invest with little or no money of your own. There is one strategy that isn’t talked about a lot, but it could work in your market.

This strategy utilizes lease purchases to acquire a rental property and place a tenant in it using lease options. This can be a win-win-win for the three parties involved.

A. The Frustrated Seller
A seller who has had trouble selling the normal ways or must sell quickly to move and take a job is a great candidate for this investment strategy. You provide them with a way to move out of their home and not pay any other payments. They can move on with their life while you take over their house payments. They get to move right away, and you get control of the home.

B. A Rent-to-Buy Tenant
There are people out there who want to own a home, but they cannot due to credit problems, lack of a down payment, or both. You offer them a lease purchase on the home, and they can rent it while they fix their credit and save their down payment.

C. You, The Investor
By locating distressed sellers and helping them to move and also helping people who want to buy and get into a home, you’re providing a service to both. You’re going to profit handsomely as well, and here is how:

Steps in the Sandwich Lease Process

Step 1
You locate a seller who needs to move quickly, and they have a home with a low enough payment that you can rent it out for more each month; that’s your positive cash flow. You execute a lease purchase with them, giving you the option to buy the home at some date in the future, usually 3 to 5 years away at an agreed-upon price. You agree to pay their payments, and you pay them an option premium that helps them to move. This is whatever you can agree upon, but for this example, use $1,500.

Step 2
You have been marketing for rent-to-own buyers and have shown photos of the home to one who indicates they’d like to buy once they see the home. You execute a lease purchase agreement with them for the same period as the one with the seller. They have the option, not the obligation, to buy the home on or before that date. You charge them an option premium of $1,500, so you’re into this deal with no cash out of pocket. They like this, as it’s a lot less than a down payment.

Step 3
Your agreement sets the monthly lease payment at a higher number than the payment you’re making on the home. This is your monthly cash flow. The price at which you will allow them to buy the home is higher than the one you’ve agreed to with the seller.

You now have a profitable monthly rental with a profit at the end of the lease from the sale of the home. If the tenant doesn’t buy, you can renew your deal with the seller and place another tenant in the home, or you can walk away.

This isn’t a strategy for every market or every investor, but it’s providing nice cash flows for those who can use it appropriately.

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PRE-CONSTRUCTION VS RESALE TORONTO CONDOS

The Toronto real estate market is always in flux and, as an investor you should be ready to switch up your strategy to maximize your dollars and of course, your ROI.

The real estate market is always in flux and this can make investing exciting but it can also make it extremely difficult for investors. The market can change week to week as much as it can change year over year and, as real estate agents, we need to be ready for every type of curveball the market sends our way.

As experts in our field, we’re constantly tracking the active market and are adjusting our strategies in order to earn our clients the best returns possible. By monitoring trends and pricing in all areas and on all products, we’re finding the best investment opportunities based on the market at the time.

Over the past few years we’ve been strong advocates for investing in Toronto’s pre-construction condo market but as pre-construction prices creep up beyond their resale counterparts, not all pre-construction developments in Toronto make for good investments. This doesn’t mean there aren’t great pre-construction investments, it simply means that it’s time to consider alternative options and their respective returns when investing.

There are a number of advantages to investing in the resale condo market and today we’ll cover our top reasons why you should consider resale investment opportunities in the Toronto market.

MYTH #1
Pre-Construction is Cheaper than Resale

It wasn’t long ago that pre-construction condos were almost always priced below their resale counterparts, which is why the pre-construction market has earned such a good reputation among investors. But today, with a growing number of pre-construction condos being built, the cost to build is more expensive. It’s a simple case of supply and demand.

Babak Eslahjoub of Core Architects said to The Globe and Mail that “construction costs are going up as a result of the demand being quite high; we’re the victim of our own success.” The price of land, material and labour have all increased for developers and they, too, need to make a profit off their investment and need to price projects accordingly.

It’s important that your Realtor is always looking for the best investment opportunities—whether that’s resale or pre-construction—with the best profit margins, and this will vary depending on the area and the state of the market.

MYTH #2
Investing in Pre-Construction Guarantees a Higher ROI

As we mentioned above, in the past, pre-construction condos were almost always priced below their resale counterparts but as of late, these pre-sale prices have become, in many instances, too aggressive and many are unjustifiable in the current market.

If you’re over paying for the product you lose the inherent advantage that pre-construction offers: equity gained during the holding period.

MYTH #3
The Best Pre-Construction Deals Always Sell Out in a Day

Consumers are getting fooled by the hype around any hot new projects in a great location and are quick to pull the trigger by putting their money into them. Some pre-construction condo developments are actually charging more per square foot than resale is trading for in the same area. The lack of education for some investors could lead them to overpaying.

As builders continue to command high prices the trend will continue as there are always going to be buyers that will pay the price. This is specifically true for end-users whose intentions are to live in the building long-term. This is why it’s so important to work with a Realtor that you know is looking out for your best interests and who will tell you whether they believe in the project or not. Frankly, I won’t sell anything I wouldn’t buy myself.

WHO CAN INVEST IN RESALE

If you meet these three major qualifications you’re likely a good candidate for resale investing.

  • You have a 20%+ down payment ready to go.
  • You can qualify for a mortgage today.
  • You don’t mind being a landlord for an extended period of time.

FINDING THE RIGHT INVESTMENT FOR YOU

There are a number of factors that come to play when deciding which investment is for you. If you meet the above qualifications resale mightjust be the right one.

I say might because I always recommend that if you’re thinking of investing that you book a call with me to discuss your unique situation and goals. The market is always changing and my recommendations will always change with it.

It’s important to find a property that is priced well and in the right location with good market growth potential. This means it matters what you’re buying as much as for what price. I’ll discuss your options at hand and recommend a strategy that will maximize your return.

WHY RESALE IS A GOOD INVESTMENT

As it stands right now in the market, you may be able to make money faster in resale as the market adjusts. The key is finding the right price; ideally for properties that are equal or less than pre-construction in the same area. If you can buy a fairly new resale condo with a good floor plan, from a reputable builder, in an area where pre-construction is being built — that new build next door will float your resale investment price up when it comes time to sell.

Let’s say you find a 700sqft resale property that is going for $850 per square foot compared to the same sized pre-construction property that’s selling for $950 per square foot.

While you won’t get the same price per square foot as a brand new building come resale, if  you’ve bought in a reputable building that still sells very well, we can maximize your sale price and achieve a similar price per foot through things like staging. So not only have you purchased for less, but you get to boost your resale value because of the new buildings in the area — not to mention the extra income you’ve earned from renting it out for six years rather than just two.

FINANCING YOUR RESALE CONDO

The difference with resale is that you’ll need to have your financing and deposit monies (20% down) ready on closing, which would be in two to four months rather than pre-construction’s typical 15% down in the first year, followed by the remaining 5% three to four years later. But, if financing isn’t a road block, you have the opportunity to start building equity and earning rental income from your investment right away. Meanwhile, your tenant begins to pay down your mortgage today.

PAYING DOWN YOUR MORTGAGE PRINCIPAL

One of the major benefits of purchasing resale — if you can handle the hassle of being a long-term landlord — is that your tenant begins to pay down your mortgage principal today. Couple this with equity gains and you have yourself a healthy investment!

HOLDING YOUR INVESTMENT CONDO

Remember, real estate is a long-term investment. If you’re goal is equity gains — whether resale or pre-construction — expect to hold your property for at least six or seven years. This will protect your investment and allow enough time to generate a healthy return — especially in Toronto’s high performing condo market. New builds will boost resale values of their neighbouring buildings, provided you buy the right product.

A lot more to this conversation and a lot of moving parts to consider. This is why we always recommend speaking to an Realtor who is well versed in the Toronto market and who regularly invests their own money in real-estate.

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City plan puts focus on two- and three-bedroom residential units

Nearly half of new residential developments in downtown Toronto could be made up of two- and three-bedroom units, a new plan for the core just approved by city council outlines.

The city’s sweeping TOcore plan for downtown growth considers many aspects of living, working and being in Toronto’s core, including expanding and improving parks; fostering walking, cycling and transit, and protecting open spaces from shadow.

The Official Plan Amendment and three infrastructure strategies was considered by council late Wednesday night.

The master plan requires new residential developments with more than 80 units to be made up of at least 40 per cent two- and three-bedroom units.

“It’s something that we’re … hoping for, because we’ve been seeing a steady decline since the 1990s in the size of condo units and in the number of bedrooms of condo units,” said Cherise Burda, executive director of the Ryerson City Building Institute.

“At the same time, we’re seeing an increase in the height of condo buildings. And, so, essentially, we’re building small and tall; we’re building small units in tall buildings.”

To create balanced mix of unit types and sizes, the policies approved lay out regulations for developments with more than 80 residential units:

    • At least 15 per cent of units would be two-bedrooms that are at least 87 square metres (936.5 square feet) in size.
    • At least 10 per cent of units would be three-bedrooms that are at least 100 square metres (1,076.4 square feet) in size.
    • An additional 15 per cent of units would be a combination of two- and three-bedroom units, without the same minimum size.
“Making sure that we build a livable downtown means ensuring that we have access to affordable housing, but also means that we have access to family housing, and that means family-sized units,” said Councillor Joe Cressy (Ward 20—Trinity-Spadina) before the vote.

“Not just two and three bedrooms where the three bedrooms are closets, but rather two and three proper-sized bedrooms. And that’s what’s key in TOcore; it provides a percentage that’s required for two and three bedrooms, but also the specific square footage that’s required.”

Douglas Young, an associate professor who teaches urban studies at York University, said the policy is a “very interesting” example of the government regulating the production of housing.

“I think, in this country, there’s always been something of a dance between government and the private sector around housing, with sometimes government getting very involved and other times stepping back,” Young said. “So I see this as a point in time where they’ve decided to step forward and get more involved.”

Young said the regulations are an attempt to reverse the trend of smaller condos being built in Toronto, which are more suitable for singles than families or groups. He added the 87- and 100-square-metre minimums for new units are “big” by today’s standards.

Burda said multi-bedroom units will create opportunities for families to remain downtown, but emphasized that affordability remains an issue.

“We need to get way more innovative and figure out how to create more affordable, family-friendly housing in our downtown, and it doesn’t necessarily require a million-dollar, three-bedroom unit,” Burda said.

The plan adds that, “where appropriate,” residential units would include storage space, operable windows, bedrooms with closets, bedrooms with an operable window on an exterior wall and balconies or terraces.

“They’re acknowledging the fact that the standard of accommodation that the private sector is producing is pretty low, where you can have a space without a window and without a closet and you can call it a bedroom,” Young said.

The downtown plan is a 25-year project that directs the scale and location of future growth in the city centre. It’s the first comprehensive update since the 1970s, when the 1976 Central Area Plan introduced policies to encourage residential growth downtown and avoid inner city deterioration.

“Fundamentally, TOcore is about designing a downtown that is livable,” Cressy said. “Another way of putting it: it’s about ensuring we build neighbourhoods, rather than simply building towers. And, so, central to building neighbourhoods is having a range of ages and families and people that live there.”

Cressy called the masterplan “long overdue and necessary.”

By the year 2041, the population of downtown Toronto is expected to double from 240,000 to 475,000.

Recognizing that growth was outpacing infrastructure, city council initiated the TOcore study in 2014.

The study area is bounded by Lake Ontario to the south, Bathurst St. to the west, the mid-town rail corridor and Rosedale Valley Road to the north and the Don River to the east.

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Young Canadians want to own a home but aren’t planning for it

The dream of owning a home is still very much alive among Canadian millennials, but when it comes to saving for it they are lagging.

A new poll of 18-37 year-olds by CIBC has found that 46% intend to buy a home in the next five years but 76% have yet to start saving or have saved less than a quarter of their down payment.

“Our survey reveals that few millennials are taking the necessary steps to make the move to homeownership,” says Grant Rasmussen, Senior Vice President, Mobile Advice, CIBC. “You can’t buy a home with intent and desire alone. It’s important to have a financial plan to make the most of your income and set yourself up with the right savings plan to achieve your goals now and in the years ahead.”

Four in 10 Canadian millennials currently rent and almost a quarter live with their parents with 94% of those intending to become homebuyers. However, 45% say they don’t believe it is realistic or desirable anymore.

More than a third are already homebuyers but 58% are concerned that rising interest rates will impact their ability to manage current household expenses.

“While most still dream of owning a home one day, higher house prices, the prospect of higher rates, and new qualifying rules are prompting some millennials to pause and question whether being a homeowner is realistic or even desirable for them,” says Mr. Rasmussen. “The key is to understand your total housing costs and start planning early so you can consider your rent versus buy options in the context of your overall financial plan and desired lifestyle.”

Although many respondents to the poll say that renting can be as expensive as homeownership, they are concerned about the costs of ownership.

But millennial homeowners manage to save more each month ($566 on average) than renters ($368) or live-at-homers ($360), and homeowners have amassed an average nest-egg of just over $60,600 – more than double that of their peers who rent or live at home.

Are you looking to invest in property? If you like, we can get one of our mortgage experts to tell you exactly how much you can afford to borrow, which is the best mortgage for you or how much they could save you right now if you have an existing mortgage

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Province to unlock additional land for housing

The Ontario government has addressed the province’s housing supply issue by vowing to unlock provincial land for the use of housing.

Toronto Mayor John Tory and Peter Milczyn, Minister of Housing and Minister Responsible for the Poverty Reduction Strategy, made the announcement in Toronto Wednesday morning.

The plan is to allow for the creation of 2,000 new affordable housing units in Toronto as part of the province’s Fair Housing Plan.

“Our communities are at their strongest when they make room for everyone,” Milczyn said. “By freeing up underused land to build a mix of market and affordable rental housing, more people in Ontario will be able to find an affordable home in neighbourhoods they love.”

The province has earmarked three sites for building; two lots in West Don Lands and one, which is currently a multi-level parking structure, in the downtown core between Bay and Yonge Streets south of Wellesley.

“This is a unique and innovative strategy to transform surplus provincial lands into much-needed rental housing units for individuals and families, a key part of our Fair Housing Plan,” Bob Chiarelli, minister of infrastructure, said.

This new program is one of 16 measures announced by the Ontario government earlier this year to address affordable housing in the province.

“The province is leveraging the value of this land to develop new rental and affordable housing units for individuals and families in Toronto,” the Ministry of Housing said in a release. “This will pave the way for strong neighbourhoods that will feature both market and affordable rental housing, including much-needed family-sized units, with up to 30 per cent of the units earmarked for affordable housing.”

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Yorkville Toronto Condo Sales Report, March 21 Through August 20, 2017

Since the end of April, we have heard many reports on how the [Toronto-Condo-Market-May-2017-New-Legislature-Effect-Toronto-Condo-Market-]Ontario Fair Housing Plan has changed the face of Toronto’s real estate market. We have heard diverse reports ranging from dire as the market has stalled and prices have dropped dramatically, to reports that there has been little impact on the Toronto market other than fewer sales.
I am going to dedicate myself to assist you in sorting out what effect the new legislature has had on the industry. I will not just give you blanket statements like we are hearing from Toronto’s media but focus on each downtown and midtown Toronto condo neighbourhoods so you may be able to see the changes based on the actual sales that have occurred in each area.
The first neighbourhood I will attack is [4a_custpage_109146.html]Yorkville in Downtown, Toronto around the Yonge, Avenue Road and Bloor area. This neighbourhood tends to has higher-end buildings and has been the most expensive condo area in Toronto.
I will breakdown by month beginning with March 21 – April 20 (the month prior to the changes) and moving through the 1st three months of the changes, as well as comparing with the year prior. We will explore the effects in both sales and prices and compare each category so you may see the real picture for this neighbourhood.
If you find this information useful, look for Bay Street Corridor Report next week. In the next few weeks, I will cover all of the downtown areas to give you true numbers for those looking to buy and sell. I think it is critical for all those who are interested in Toronto real estate, including real estate agents and brokers, to understand the changes and how it has affected the market. In fact, I am working towards reporting all this information by building because we are already seeing changes that are unique to each condo building.
It has been very interesting to look at the Yorkville, Annex, Toronto numbers. There has definitely been a decline in the number of sales over this period of time. In 2016 we saw the number of sales in the mid 30’s each month and this was the case prior to the change. However, from May 21st to June 20th there were 24 condo sales in the Annex, from June 21st to July 20th there were 19 sales and July 21st to August 20th there were 28 sales. What I find interesting is that the sales prices have actually increased on average.
The average sales price from March 21st through April 20th (prior to the rule change) was $1,174,126. The first month after the changes (April 21st to May 20th) we saw an increase of 7%, to $1,260,720. The second month (May 21st to June 20th) we saw a decrease in sales price to $1,055,403 but the market rebounded quickly in the 3rd month (June 21st to July 20th) to $2,091,889, an increase of 76%. The month showed a significantly higher increase, but it must be taken into consideration that there were 3 very expensive sales.
July 21st through August 20th saw the average sales price drop back, to $1,058,604, which I consider closer to the norm.  However, it is still up by more than 10% over the same period in 2016.
Prior to the change on April 21st, the price per square foot was $959.02 and we have seen this rise to as much as $1,038. In July-August we saw this figure remain strong at $1,019 per square foot. This is still a 6% increase over the March/April numbers.
Yorkville has remained a very strong market even after the changes. The numbers that truly supports the strength of the market is the average price per square foot and fewer listings. You can have a few high end deals that boost your sales price numbers but the price per square foot will always remain relevant. Over the past 5 months we have seen a rise in this number by as much as 8%.
For those who have been reluctant to sell their Yorkville condo due to what is being reported in the media, now is a great time to sell a Yorkville condos… it is still a strong sellers market!

 
July 21 – August 20, 2017
 
June 21 – July 20, 2017
 
May 21 – June 20 2017
 
Apr. 21 – May 20, 2017
 
Mar 21 – Apr. 20 2017
# of Sales
28
 
        19        
 
24
 
35 
 
 38
Ave. Listing Price 
$1,066,292
 
 $2,256,294
 
$1,055,403
 
 $1,260,720
 
 $1,174,126
Ave. Sales Price 
$1,058,604 (-11%)   since change
 
$2,091,889 (+25%)  since change 
 
$1,058,571 (-11%)   since change
 
 $1,254,492
 
 $1,188,827
Aprox Ave $ per sq. ft.
$1,019.10 (+6%) since change
 
$1,039.94 (+8%) since change
 
$928.11 (-3%) since change
 
 $993.48
 
 $959.02
% of Sold to Listing Price
99%
 
93% 
 
103 %
 
 99%
 
 101%
 
July 21 – August 20, 2016
 
 June 21 – July 20, 2016
 
May 21 – June 20 2016 
 
 Apr. 21 – May 20, 2016
 
 Mar 21 – Apr. 20 2016
# of Sales
 24
 
32
 
33
 
31
 
39
Ave. Listing Price 
 $980,762
 
$916,284
 
$921,586
 
$856,516
 
$793,387
Ave. Sales Price 
 $959,661 
 
$891,469
 
$894,784
 
$840,425
 
$789,891
Aprox Ave $ per sq. ft.
$817.07 
 
$736.02
 
$742.67
 
$600.76
 
$717.34
% of Sold to Listing Price
98% 
 
 97%
 
97%
 
98%
 
106%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
July 21 – Aug. 20 2017
 
 
 
 
# of Suites 
 
Ave Sales Price 
 
Aprox. Price per Square foot 
Studios / Bachs
 
 
 
 
1
 
$399,999
 
$690.84
1 Bedrooms
 
 
 
 
9
 
$596,889
 
$954.41
1 Bdrm + Den
 
 
 
 
6
 
$689,483
 
$960.61 
2 Bedrooms
 
 
 
 
6
 
$762,833
 
$913.12 
2 Bdrm + Den
 
 
 
 
4
 
$2,898,750
 
$1,547.16 
3 Bedrooms
 
 
 
 
2
 
$1,780,000
 
$911.64 
3 + 1 Bdrm
 
 
 
 
–
 
–
 
 –
4 Bedroom
 
 
 
 
–
 
–
 
 – 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
June 21 – July 20 2017
 
 
 
 
# of Suites 
 
Ave Sales Price 
 
Aprox. Price per Square foot 
Studios / Bachs
 
 
 
 
0 
 
– 
 
– 
1 Bedrooms
 
 
 
 
5
 
$563,980 
 
$906.67 
1 Bdrm + Den
 
 
 
 
4 
 
$580,000 
 
$956.67 
2 Bedrooms
 
 
 
 
3 
 
$843,667 
 
$772.23 
2 Bdrm + Den
 
 
 
 
2 
 
 $3,177,500
 
 $1,403.70 
3 Bedrooms
 
 
 
 
3 
 
$2,948,333 
 
 $1,101.71
3 + 1 Bdrm
 
 
 
 
0 
 
– 
 
– 
4 Bedroom
 
 
 
 
2 
 
$8,437,500 
 
$2,969.56 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
May 21 – June 20 2017
 
 
 
 
# of Suites
 
Ave Sales Price
 
Aprox. Price per Square foot
Studios / Bachs
 
 
 
 
0
 
–
 
–
1 Bedrooms
 
 
 
 
9
 
$761,296
 
$997.19
1 Bdrm + Den
 
 
 
 
7
 
$689,514
 
$834.14
2 Bedrooms
 
 
 
 
12 
 
$1,247,500 
 
 $986.56
2 Bdrm + Den
 
 
 
 
 6
 
 $1,616,666
 
$1,120.87 
3 Bedrooms
 
 
 
 
 3
 
 $1,541,166
 
$1,196.87 
3 + 1 Bdrm
 
 
 
 
 0
 
– 
 
 –
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Ontario’s Fair Housing Plan

Ontario’s Fair Housing Plan introduces a comprehensive package of measures to help more people find affordable homes, increase supply, protect buyers and renters and bring stability to the real estate market. The plan includes:

Actions to Address Demand for Housing:

Introducing legislation that would, if passed, implement a new 15-per-cent Non-Resident Speculation Tax (NRST) on the price of homes in the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) purchased by individuals who are not citizens or permanent residents of Canada or by foreign corporations. Ontario’s economy benefits enormously from newcomers who decide to make the province home. The NRST would help to address unsustainable demand in this region and make housing more available and affordable, while ensuring Ontario continues to be a place that welcomes all new residents. The proposed tax would apply to transfers of land that contain at least one and not more than six single family residences. “Single family residences” include, for example, detached and semi-detached homes, townhomes and condominiums. The NRST would not apply to transfers of other types of land including multi-residential rental apartment buildings, agricultural land or commercial/industrial land. The NRST would be effective as of April 21, 2017, upon the enactment of the amending legislation.

Refugees and nominees under the Ontario Immigrant Nominee Program would not be subject to the NRST. Subject to eligibility requirements, a rebate would be available for those who subsequently attain citizenship or permanent resident status as a well as foreign nationals working in Ontario and international students. See technical bulletin for further information.

Actions to Protect Renters

Expanding rent control to all private rental units in Ontario, including those built after 1991. This will ensure increases in rental costs can only rise at the rate posted in the annual provincial rent increase guideline. Over the past ten years, the annual rent increase guideline has averaged two per cent. The increase is capped at a maximum of 2.5 per cent. Under these changes, landlords would still be able to apply vacancy decontrol and seek above guideline increases where permitted. Legislation will be introduced that, if passed, will enact this change effective April 20.‎
The government will introduce legislation that would, if passed, strengthen the Residential Tenancies Act to further protect tenants and ensure predictability for landlords. This will include developing a standard lease with explanatory information available in multiple languages, tightening provisions for “landlord’s own use” evictions, and ensuring that tenants are adequately compensated if asked to vacate under this rule; prohibiting above-guideline increases where elevator work orders have not been completed; and making technical changes at the Landlord-Tenant Board to make the process fairer and easier for renters and landlords. These changes would apply to the entire province.

Actions to Increase Housing Supply

Establishing a program to leverage the value of surplus provincial land assets across the province to develop a mix of market housing and new, permanent, sustainable and affordable housing supply. Potential sites under consideration for a pilot project include the West Don Lands, 27 Grosvenor/26 Grenville Streets in Toronto, and other sites in the province. This builds on an agreement reached previously with the City of Toronto to ensure a minimum of 20 per cent of residential units within the West Don Lands are available for affordable rental, with an additional 5 per cent of units for affordable ownership.
Introducing legislation that would, if passed, empower the City of Toronto, and potentially other interested municipalities, to introduce a vacant homes property tax to encourage property owners to sell unoccupied units or rent them out, to address concerns about residential units potentially being left vacant by speculators.
Ensuring that property tax for new multi-residential apartment buildings is charged at a similar rate as other residential properties. This will encourage developers to build more new purpose-built rental housing and will apply to the entire province.
Introducing a targeted $125-million, five-year program to further encourage the construction of new rental apartment buildings by rebating a portion of development charges. Working with municipalities, the government would target projects in those communities that are most in need of new purpose-built rental housing.
Providing municipalities with the flexibility to use property tax tools to help unlock development opportunities. For example, municipalities could be permitted to impose a higher tax on vacant land that has been approved for new housing.
Creating a new Housing Supply Team with dedicated provincial employees to identify barriers to specific housing development projects and work with developers and municipalities to find solutions. As well, a multi-ministry working group will be established to work with the development industry and municipalities to identify opportunities to streamline the development approvals process.

Other Actions to Protect Homebuyers and Increase Information Sharing

The province will work to understand and tackle practices that may be contributing to tax avoidance and excessive speculation in the housing market such as “paper flipping,” a practice that includes entering into a contractual agreement to buy a residential unit and assigning it to another person prior to closing.
Working with the real estate profession and consumers, the province is committing to review the rules real estate agents are required to follow to ensure that consumers are fairly represented in real estate transactions. This includes practices such as double ending. The government will modernize its rules, strengthen professionalism and improve the home-buying experience with a goal to make Ontario a leader in real estate standards.
Establishing a housing advisory group which will meet quarterly to provide the government with ongoing advice about the state of the housing market and discuss the impact of the measures in the Fair Housing Plan and any additional steps that are needed. The group will have a diverse range of expertise, including economists, academics, developers, community groups and the real estate sector.
Educating consumers on their rights, particularly on the issue of one real estate professional representing more than one party in a real estate transaction.
Partnering with the Canada Revenue Agency to explore more comprehensive reporting requirements so that correct federal and provincial taxes, including income and sales taxes, are paid on purchases and sales of real estate in Ontario.
Making elevators in Ontario buildings more reliable by establishing timelines for elevator repair in consultation with the sector and the Technical Standards & Safety Authority (TSSA).
Working with municipalities to better reflect the needs of a growing Greater Golden Horseshoe through an updated Growth Plan. New provisions will include requiring that municipalities consider the appropriate range of unit sizes in higher density residential buildings to accommodate a diverse range of household sizes and incomes. This will help support the goals of creating complete communities that are vibrant, transit-supportive and economically competitive, while doing more to address climate change, protect the region’s natural heritage and prevent the loss of irreplaceable farmland. As part of the implementation of the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006, enough land was set aside in municipal official plans to accommodate forecasted growth to at least 2031. Based on discussions with municipalities across the region, the government is confident that there is enough serviced land to meet the Provincial Policy Statement requirement for a three year supply of residential units. The Greenbelt provides important protection of natural heritage and farmland, and neither the area of the Greenbelt or the rules about what can occur inside of it will be weakened. The upcoming Growth Plan will promote intensification around existing and planned transit stations and will promote higher densities in the suburbs to support transit.

See map “Greater Golden Horseshoe”.

Actions to Date

The government has taken a number of actions over recent months and years in order to support homebuyers, increase supply of affordable and rental housing and promote fairness. These include:

Helping more people purchase their first home by doubling the maximum Land Transfer Tax refund for eligible first-time homebuyers to $4,000. This means eligible homebuyers in Ontario pay no Land Transfer Tax on the first $368,000 of the cost of their first home.
Modernizing the Land Transfer Tax to reflect the current real estate market, including increasing rates on one or two single-family residence over $2 million. Revenue generated from the increased rates is being used to fund the enhancements to the First-Time Homebuyers Refund.
Making it easier for not-for-profit affordable housing providers to buy surplus government lands.
Introducing an inclusionary zoning framework for municipalities that will enable affordable housing units as part of residential developments.
Amending the Planning Act and the Development Charges Act to support second units, allowing homeowners to create rental units in their primary residence and creating additional supply.
Freezing the municipal property tax burden for multi-residential apartment buildings in communities where these taxes are high.
Collecting information about Ontario’s real estate market to support evidence-based policy development

Appendix: Data and Trends on the Real Estate Market

Ontario’s housing market has seen very dynamic growth in recent years, with prices in the Greater Toronto Area and the Greater Golden Horseshoe rising significantly. This has been supported by economic fundamentals, including a growing population, rising employment, higher incomes and very low borrowing costs.

House prices have been rising at a robust pace in the Greater Toronto Area since the end of the 2008-09 recession.

After two consecutive years of double-digit gains, average house prices in the Toronto region reached $916,567 in March 2017, up 33.2 per cent from a year earlier.

See image “Toronto Home Resale Prices”

The Greater Toronto Area showed the sharpest rise in home prices in Ontario over the past two years.

While the growth rate of prices of homes in the Greater Vancouver Area have been slowing since August 2016 after the introduction of B.C.’s foreign-buyers tax, home prices have been climbing steadily in the Greater Toronto Area.

See image “MLS Home Price Index”, “Greater Toronto Area Price Increases Outstrip Other Cities” and “Housing supply in Ontario seems to be aligning with demographics”.

According to Urbanation, the average rent per square foot for new leases in the Greater Toronto Area condo market rose 11 per cent in the last quarter of 2016 compared to a year earlier, the fastest pace of growth since at least 2011.

See image “% change, year-over-year, GTA”.

The number of owners with more than one residential property has been rising steadily since 2000.

See image “Number of Owners With More Than One Residential Property in the GTHA: 2000-16”.

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